Sources that say xbox one is selling more? Vgc doesn't count. 

You forgot about the UK.

they're competitive but they really have no chance of winning the gen in the UK. 

But the PS4 beat the X1 for the holiday season in the UK. It outsold the X1 in December more than the X1 outsold the PS4 in November.

As usuaul? Hasn't MS only won the US market one time with the 360? Im pretty sure they lost to Sony every single time except for the PS3 vs 360.

Sorry to here your friends didn't see the light, but I gotta say your group is far from the norm.  Of all of the "Groups" of friends I have come into contact with there has been a MASSIVE shift towards playstation.  Examples:

-Everyone in my group switched to PS4 (Almost all were Xbox  or "Both" last gen)

-Most in my brother's group switched (Again most xbox before)

-Everyone in my cousin's groups switched (Was about half and half last gen)

-At my college there are WAY more Playstations around than there used to be.

^Sales back this anecdotle evidence up.  

As for COD and such - check the database for game sales in North America:

-COD:AW = Slight Xbox win in US.

-GTAV = PS4 win by almost 2:1

-Madden 15 = Solid PS4 win

-AC: Unity = Xbox Win by 2:1

So really even in just North America the PS4 is selling on average more AAA games, and these games came out when the X1 was crazy cheap during the holidays.  We don't even want to talk about the slaughter that was Watchdogs and such.

Just wait for the Slim release at $300 with Uncharted 4...

It is infinitely more than 0 or 4x more than 1.

It won't be easy but will likely win.

Yes. PS4 will be 300 dollars in 2015 and 200 dollars in 2016.

1) Selling more SW due to larger userbase and worldwide penetration
+
2) Continuous increase in PS+, PSNow and PS Vue(once it starts) revenue. [The rebranding of music and movies will also likely increase revenue in that field, with Ps Music doing better than Music unlimited (for comparison's sake, Unlimited was not available in almost every country, while PS Music has been confirmed for most national markets)]

= no need to profit from HW.

Sony's strategy has been to a) increase user base and b) increase average revenue per user. A) is happening nicely and b) should happen this year (might have already started).

The Xbox division can only respond with cuts to 250 and 150, respectively. But that'll just keep it closer to PS4, it won't make it #1, as being 50 dollars cheaper does not seem to be enough. Taking losses in HW + low revenue in international markets = a lot of bleeding. They are lucky to be under MS's wing, and therefore their coffers, or such a situation would signal the end of the brand. But it won't. But on that subject, speculating about next gen is something we shouldn't do yet due to uncertainties about the direction the industry will take (yes, the cloud "problem").

TL;DR: With Sony raking in revenue from the worldwide playstation userbase on several fronts, and production costs lower than the competitor, they'll have no difficulty dropping the price. Both cuts I mentioned above will not happen during holidays, they'll happen in the middle of the year (May-September) to avoid stock shortages.
X1 will take some NPDs each year, but the overal yearly sales will always favor PS4.

PS4 is winning by 500k against a console that has had massive bundles + large discounts/revisions without dropping their own price. Sounds pretty easy to me so far.

MS has slowed the slaughter and gained back a lot but has not been able to reverse the trend entirely(unless Amazon is wrong, which would be the biggest surprise of the gen)

PS4's lineup for the next 6 months should provide another large gap increase over the XBO. I'm guessing PS4's gap coming into BF will be larger than last year but PS4 will have much more leeway for bigger discounts/bundles than before.