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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Sony and MS have the courage to compete with Nintendo in 2016?

 

How will this play out?

Sony will compete but MS will status quo 98 24.02%
 
MS will compete but Sony will status quo 21 5.15%
 
Both twins will compete 152 37.25%
 
Nintendo won't be hindered. 137 33.58%
 
Total:408
Normchacho said:
zorg1000 said:
DanneSandin said:
Normchacho said:
DanneSandin said:

I don't know how you would describe the DS... That's two consoles that's evidence enough that Nintendo might hit it big next gen. But like I said, they need the 3rd parties; it's a lot safer a bet than trying to find the next Wii.

I'm talking home consoles, they are a very different game. There is simply no reason to think that Nintendo will be able to just add the WiiU sales to the 3DS sales.  How many WiiU owners don't have a 3DS? Why would people who decided against buying a Nintendo home console just hop on board because the 3DS was more popular...

haha I've just had the same conversation in this thread with someone else! I also pointed out that there's quite a lot of cross buying between the two consoles... I think that both consoles need something special to differentiate themselves; how many would buy two consoles that plays the same games?!

U guys don't seem to understand, Nintendo doesn't need consumers to buy both. By having a console and a handheld that cost the same and have all the same games, it allows consumers to buy the device based on what their preferences are. Currently we have 3DS at 48m and Wii U at 8m, for a total of 56m. Even if 75% of Wii U owners have a 3DS, that's still 50m.

The point is some people will choose the handheld, some will choose the console but by having both devices share a library, it allows games like Tropical Freeze, 3D World, Mario Kart 8 to sell better because they are no longer hindered by being on a single device with a low install base. If those games were on 3DS they could easily sell 3-4x as much

This also allows Nintendo to pump out games at a faster rate by not having to develop software for two seperate devices and significantly reduced 1st party software droughts.

By the end of this generation 3DS+Wii U sales will likely be around 80m, 70m or so when taking out the people who own both. Nintendo's objective is to maximize software output and software sales while keeping these 70m or customers happy.

Cost the same and run the same games? Either one or both of them would be DOA. Cost and power would be impossible to balance. 

How powerful does it need to be to compete as a home console?  Would it be possible to make a console that powerful portable? How much would it cost?

Do they launch what is pretty much a Wii level home/handheld console so they can charge $200-$250 for it? (ie, making the handheld the main console) The home console would get crushed, I'm talking OUYA level sales.

Do they launch a console stronger than the WiiU to compete at home? How do they make that portable? How much would it cost to make that portable? Who's buying a handheld that costs as much as a home console?

Handheld version-$199, between Vita & Wii U in terms of power, able to run Wii U engines at a lower resolution.

Console version-$199, slight upgrade over Wii U, extra power is to allow games to run at 1080p.

Nintendo success/failures have never been a direct result of power and Nintendo has no desire to get into a spec war with MS/Sony. Lifetime sales of 3DS+Wii U will probably be around 80 million (3DS-65m, Wii U-15m), 70 million or so when u take into account people who own both.

So why do u believe the console version would get crushed in this scenario? Right now 3DS is about half the price (2DS-$129, 3DS XL-$199, Wii U-$299), has cheaper software ($20-40 vs $40-60) and has a vastly larger library. Of all these were equal then it's certainly possible that sales between the handheld and console would be more similar (30-40 million each) and it doesn't really matter if one does worse than the other because the whole point of this is to increase software output by not having to release software for 2 completely different pieces of hardware,  increase software sales buy not having certain games being hindered by a low install base like Wii U, and ultimately maximize profits by lowering R&D and increased software revenue.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:

I'm not sure if this has anything to do with what ur talking about, but I don't think their will be seperate versions of each game. More like both devices will use higher capacity 3DS carts. So if u have both devices, u can just swap the cart between the two. Also going off their statements about becoming account based rather than device based, I think they will incorporate a cross-buy feature for digital titles, if u buy a game digitally on one device then it is also available on the other.

Another thing is I really believe they should allow online functionality between both. If I'm at home and playing Smash Bros on the console version, I should be able to battle against my friend on the train playing the handheld version.


What? Lol, that's not gonna happen. Quite the opposite. I see the next handheld being completely digital, while the console being typical CD. Carts are pretty much obsolete now as is. There's no way Nintendo is going to go back to carts on the next console for very obvious reasons, and they simply can not have the kind of console-handheld relationship they've been talking about with two different physical formats.

While I don't think the versions will be separate per se, I do think that the same game will have exclusive content depending on what you play it on to further highlight the reasons to own both instead of just one. I think that Smash 3DS and Wii U are irrefutable proof that this will be their philosophy on this matter, but working backwards. With Smash Bros Wii U and 3DS, they used the exclusive content to get you to want to buy both games, but with the new systems, they'll use the single cross-buy game as a way to get you to purchase both systems.

Cross platform online play between systems will be pretty much a given, so I see no issue there.



Cobretti2 said:
zorg1000 said:
Cobretti2 said:
They first need to catchup.

Explain to me how they going to do that if they release in 2016? unless they release a 200watt monster worth 1K and sell it for $400 that by the time Sony and Microsoft are ready to launch a $400 machine the specs will be slightly better.


Well Nintendo likely has no desire to get in a spec war with MS/Sony and the whole point of this is for Nintendo to become self reliant, increase software output and maximize software sales and increase profits.

HDS-$199, between Vita & Wii U in terms of power, capable of running Wii U engines at a lower resolution.

HDS TV-$199, slight upgrade over Wii U, similar to leap from GC to Wii, extra power is to allow games to play at 1080p resolution.

Vita has been $199 since 2013 and I'm assuming sold at a profit. It's completely feasible to believe a moderately more powerful device can be sold at that price for a profit 3 years later.

Wii U is $299, I believe at a profit now, next year will likely see a $50 price reduction and removing the Gamepad could easily take another $50 off the price. A slight power upgrade with no Gamepad could retail for $199 in 2016 at a profit.


Well they have to get into a spec war because they cannot be self reliant unless they tripple their development teams (i.e. to give them the 3 year cycle to make a great game and not bug infested like ubisoft games). The sales also speak for that, lack of software variety means less sales. Nintendo don't have enough genres and AAA mainstream titles that people want so will need to find exerts in these areas to run these teams and develoeprs who want to work for Nintendo.

No they dont, 3DS is about to reach 50m in under 4 years with a low-powered device supported by Nintendo games, niche Japanese games and child-friendly licensed games. By the end of its lifetime it will be more like 65m with Wii U selling about 15 million for a total of 80 million units of hardware this generation. Obviously some people own both of those devices so with a unified approach we may see less people buying both devices due to them being virtually the same, so if they can retail these type of sales next-gen that puts Nintendo's unified platforms at about 70 million or so.

Nintendo's next gen hardware will essentially be the next natural step for their handheld. 3DS is somewhere between PSP & Wii, it's successor will likely be somewhere between Vita & Wii U that can support Wii U engines at a lower resolution. The console is just a more powerful version to allow playing games in 1080p. This allows Nintendo to divert all resources to making games for one piece of hardware that is playable on the other device as well. By doing this they can supply much greater software output, meaning no more droughts and certain games won't underperform by being on a low install base device like Wii U. Games like MK8/3D World/Tropical Freeze all would likely be 5-10 million sellers if they had a 3DS size install base.

The idea is basically what Sony did with Vita/Vita TV except Nintendo actually has the games to make it a success, Pokemon/2D Mario/3D Mario/Mario Kart/Smash Bros/Animal Crossing are all games capable of selling 10 million or more. Retain the 3DS audience while offering a TV alternative for people who enjoy gaming on a TV better. Also with these devices being the same price and having the same games, we might see a more equal amount of handheld and console owners. 6040 in the handhelds favor instead of 80/20 like it currently is.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

spemanig said:
zorg1000 said:

I'm not sure if this has anything to do with what ur talking about, but I don't think their will be seperate versions of each game. More like both devices will use higher capacity 3DS carts. So if u have both devices, u can just swap the cart between the two. Also going off their statements about becoming account based rather than device based, I think they will incorporate a cross-buy feature for digital titles, if u buy a game digitally on one device then it is also available on the other.

Another thing is I really believe they should allow online functionality between both. If I'm at home and playing Smash Bros on the console version, I should be able to battle against my friend on the train playing the handheld version.


What? Lol, that's not gonna happen. Quite the opposite. I see the next handheld being completely digital, while the console being typical CD. Carts are pretty much obsolete now as is. There's no way Nintendo is going to go back to carts on the next console for very obvious reasons, and they simply can not have the kind of console-handheld relationship they've been talking about with two different physical formats.

While I don't think the versions will be separate per se, I do think that the same game will have exclusive content depending on what you play it on to further highlight the reasons to own both instead of just one. I think that Smash 3DS and Wii U are irrefutable proof that this will be their philosophy on this matter, but working backwards. With Smash Bros Wii U and 3DS, they used the exclusive content to get you to want to buy both games, but with the new systems, they'll use the single cross-buy game as a way to get you to purchase both systems.

Cross platform online play between systems will be pretty much a given, so I see no issue there.

Why couldn't they go with carts? Similar to the way that Vita/Vita TV share a single format, just use 3DS carts but at a higher capacity, 4-16gb should do for pretty much all Nintendo games and the type of 3rd party games Nintendo handhelds typically recieve.

I agree we could see some minor exclusive features depending on which device u play on along with some sort of connectivity similar to what GC/GBA offered. This gives consumers at least some incentive to own both devices.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

Well Nintendo likely has no desire to get in a spec war with MS/Sony and the whole point of this is for Nintendo to become self reliant, increase software output and maximize software sales and increase profits.

HDS-$199, between Vita & Wii U in terms of power, capable of running Wii U engines at a lower resolution.

HDS TV-$199, slight upgrade over Wii U, similar to leap from GC to Wii, extra power is to allow games to play at 1080p resolution.

Vita has been $199 since 2013 and I'm assuming sold at a profit. It's completely feasible to believe a moderately more powerful device can be sold at that price for a profit 3 years later.

Wii U is $299, I believe at a profit now, next year will likely see a $50 price reduction and removing the Gamepad could easily take another $50 off the price. A slight power upgrade with no Gamepad could retail for $199 in 2016 at a profit.


I don't think Nintendo remaining competitive is the same thing as getting into a spec war. They aren't making another underpowered system. Not for a third time. They'll lose the final amount of fans they have and never be competitive afterwards. The Wii was weak for a very calculated reason. The Wii U is weaker for a very specific reason, the gamepad. The next console can't do that again.

Fusion DS - $199. Decently more powerful than the Vita. Better resolution screens. Right circle pad instead of the N3DS nub.

Fusion Console - $299. Decently more powerful than the PS4. Vita sized Gamepad and refined Pro Controller Plus, both included. (Note - I think they should remove the gamepad, but I don't think they will) The new smaller gamepad would be shaped similar to the Vita when it's in its grip case, so more controller like, and the NFC sensor would be in the screen, just like on the N3DS.

Adding a second, standard controller not only shows support for hardcore gamers who simply want a standard controller instead of the gamepad, but it also shows support for families, as they have multiplayer options right out of the box. It's so stupid that they don't do this already, as Nintendo's brand is so closely tied to home co-op play, and it wouldn't be a useless extra controller to those who live alone.



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zorg1000 said:
Normchacho said:
zorg1000 said:
DanneSandin said:
Normchacho said:
DanneSandin said:

 

Handheld version-$199, between Vita & Wii U in terms of power, able to run Wii U engines at a lower resolution.

Console version-$199, slight upgrade over Wii U, extra power is to allow games to run at 1080p.

Nintendo success/failures have never been a direct result of power and Nintendo has no desire to get into a spec war with MS/Sony. Lifetime sales of 3DS+Wii U will probably be around 80 million (3DS-65m, Wii U-15m), 70 million or so when u take into account people who own both.

So why do u believe the console version would get crushed in this scenario? Right now 3DS is about half the price (2DS-$129, 3DS XL-$199, Wii U-$299), has cheaper software ($20-40 vs $40-60) and has a vastly larger library. Of all these were equal then it's certainly possible that sales between the handheld and console would be more similar (30-40 million each) and it doesn't really matter if one does worse than the other because the whole point of this is to increase software output by not having to release software for 2 completely different pieces of hardware,  increase software sales buy not having certain games being hindered by a low install base like Wii U, and ultimately maximize profits by lowering R&D and increased software revenue.

Because it wouldn't be a competitive home console. What about the console in this scenario does anything to make the people who've passed on the WiiU want to buy one? They'd still have a woefully underpowered console with little to no third party support. Everyone but dedicated Nintendo fans and parents shopping for little kids will just laugh at it and buy a Playstation, Like they did with the PS1 and PS2 and they are doing now with the PS4.

Selling the home console for $199 won't be doable. Not at launch at least. Not only do Nintendo need to pay to actually make the console, but to develop it aswell.

They'll have another gen just like this one, crappy home sales with good handheld sales. They might make more money on them, but the OP claims that they will take over the home console market and leave Sony and MS playing catch up or having to do something to counter Nintendo. Which just won't happen, neither MS nor Sony need to worry about what Nintendo does. They are, for all intents and purposes, an also ran.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

padib said:
TheJimbo1234 said:

1) Many devices offer this nowadays, and it has not been popular. Few people care about it.

Market Share & Game Library

Look at the downward trend in all handheld consoles in the last few years. Is this due to the product being old or a shift in the market due to phones and tablets? Sales of the 3DS are far lower than the DS, so actually it would be accurate to assume a negative trend rather than the same share. Nintendo being the main/only developer of games is the most limiting factor and there are no signs of this improving. 

Growth

You ignore the lack of new IPs and how Japanese games are selling very poorly in recent years. You also incorrectly assume that console owners = handheld owners. This is not always true. Also why buy both platforms when you can get your favourite with all the games? Most people will see the possibility of svaing money rather than spending more.

Competition

You assume Nintendo will have a large success which is too presumptious. Also Sony are working on cloud based gaming so there is a good chance that Sony will have their entire games library accessable from a phone....Good luck competing with that. Also by 2016, tablet and phone hardware will be close to the power of consoles, so this is yet another platform for gaming.

Cost

Cheap products will have low specs. Low specs will mean it won't be apple to compete with leading tablets and phones. Also if the games are poorly designed (good chane they will be as Nintnedo have not dealt with new engines for a long time), then the game would be limited to the worst platform, ergo a powerful console would have a game that looks pants and with limited content due to size. This would be solved by having a state of the art handheld, but this would cost far more to develop and buy over a console, so most people would opt to buy the cheapest platform.

1) If by this you are referring to the Vita, it is not an apples to apples comparison. I would say the same about streaming. If you think it is, tell me why.

2) Requested points:

Market Share & Game Library

I'll offer two points.

First, I would argue that what damage was done to the portable market by smartphones is done. In that same line of thinking, I would assume that the newness factor of smartphone smash hits has faded. Unless you have numbers showing me new IP after new IP that is just smash hit after smash hit, it's my understanding that people have now integrated smart phone gaming into their lives, and the negative influence on Nintendo's handheld market will not continue in a downtrend, but will either plateau or see a trend reversal due to Nintendo's known ability to create novelty, be it by hardware or software (new IPs).

Second, though Nintendo may be the only developer on the new "squadron" family of systems (which I highly doubt given 3rd party support on Nintendo's handheld line), with a concerted effort on one unified library, their output of games can double, thereby making the situation much more viable than the 3DS. If the 3DS with its library was able to sell a number, the bolstered library should cause a positive influence directly proportionate to the increase in the quality and size of the unified library.

Growth

I'll offer two points here also.

First, though japanese games have stagnated since the Wii days, Nintendo was the only japanese developer to brave the first storm. Therefore there must be something in Nintendo games that differentiate them in order for them to achieve that. My understanding is that Nintendo games are the best-selling games in the world, overall. Therefore their appeal is not limited to the geography of the area they are developed in. (ergo japan) Also, many people ignore the many new IPs Nintendo has been able to produce since the DS, let alone how much they can strengthen that curve by reducing duplication in their development efforts, thereby creating space for the development of new IPs.

Secondly, if what you are sayng is true (which it is), e.g. that handheld owners =/= home console owners, then that answers your question about how much money they spend and Nintendo's return on investment. Whoever buys the system they prefer (be it handheld or home console, or tablet or hybrid or whatever) can then buy all the games they prefer, according to their tastes. Nintendo spends for one game and all consumers can buy it, irrespective of the platform. Though Nintendo may force less users into buying a console they might want less, they will still get a comparable return on investment due to the opportunity of selling more games for the same expense, while having happier customers.

Competition

Sony will offer streaming, that is not a tried and tested technology in the market. Some people may not like the latency that streaming involves. I tend to shy away from it personally.

Tablets and phones can already play advanced graphics and the effect that has on the market is known. That's not a new variable to contend with.

Cost

Nintendo is not fighting the graphics arms race, thus they can keep prices low and still offer beautiful and fun games to their consumers, depending on their tastes (whether they want games on the go or a little more pretty in the comfort of their homes). My expectation on this is that the next handheld will have capabilities between the Vita and the WiiU, there are always graphical upgrades when it comes to portables why would it be any different for the handheld that will kickstart the "squadron"? In Nintendo's hardware progression on the DS line, that is what we can expect, and at the prices we have always expected on the portable line.

The subsequent home console brother in "squadron" will be more powerful than the U, but how much more powerful is not really relevant because the U is already more than capable of great graphics. What will be more important for the home console counterpart will be a lightning-fast OS so as to avoid the OS latency issues Nintendo faced with the U.

I don't think cost will be an issue at all, since it never has been.

- Same content across all platforms is becoming old hat (just cloud gaming). It hasn't helped to sell anything.

- It is a fact that handheld sales are down year on year for a while now. New people move to phones and people grow up and stop buying handhelds meaning the market is only retracting. You say it won't retract but don't have a shred of proof. Look at the numbers and pattern - it is not even negative cyclical retraction, but simply just neative and linear, also know as the worst.

- Volume of games means little. Look at the shovelware for the Wii. Also unless some new IPs actually start coming out, few people will care about twice as many games with Mario and Link in. Also from the looks of it, Nintendo are not very competent and programming as they have not dealt with new techniques for years. Either they will have to hire many more staff (large overheads), or still fire out old fashioned games. This never helps sales.

- New IPs? Like what exactly? (Only post those that have been a large hit).

-Jap games have been stagnating long before the Wii. Even FF has died a bit of a death. The market has shifted towards CoD styled games (which is a shame, but that is how it is).

- Cheaper development is always welcome to any company. However this is assuming that the hardware or extra staff do not leech into this.

-Game streaming has been on the PC for sometime now, and it hasn't been popular. Fact is, people like sitting on their couch, with their mates, watching a big tv and playing on a console. Few people want to do this on the toilet or in their bedroom alone.

- Moores law will/is already showing the problems with consoles and handhelds, and showing the advantage of phones/tablets short product cycle. By 2016, phones will have significantly increased in power (theory says by 100%, reality is a bit less then that). This happens every two years, so phones/tablets will have the best hardware in them, yet the consoles are fixed with very low end hardware which is always dated on release. Now back in the day, doubling performance gave you little return, but that is no longer the case. Doubling performance gives astronomical returns meaning fixed hardware is quickly made obsolete. Now consoles have the advantage of size compared to phones/tablets, but a handheld does not.  

In short; a handheld will date increibly quickly.

- The makret begs to differ on cost etc. Look at the WiiU. Worst performing console - one of the worst selling consoles of all time. By 2016 a handheld should be able to outperform the WiiU. If not, Nintnedo are being cheap with hardware yet again. This does not bode well in a market which does want graphical power as part of the overall package.

The WiiU has very poor graphics. To argue otherwise shows your lack of understanding of hardware. Graphics are not subjective as some people claim, but fully quantifiable and comparable. With 4k tv's coming out, all the consoles will struggle. If you have a new console in 2016 that is not more powerful then the rest.....well we have seen what happens haven't we.



padib said:

 

Hi Torok, I was going to write this on your wall but I think I want to reply here.

I think you brought so far the only valid point against the unified API.. The clock cycles that will obviously be needed when translating the API commands to hardware commands will cause an overhead. It will create a performance difference similar to Java versus C++.

However, I believe the risk of it drastically affecting performance is low. Given the Java vs C++ example above, and the newest iphone and ipad's recently shown ability to play advanced graphics, it's my expectation that this overhead will be real but not drastic, e.g. tolerable. Finally, taking into account Nintendo placing graphics as a secondary importance over game content, I think Nintendo will pursue the solution while mitigating this real issue.

That's my thoughts on it personally. Also, I believe Nintendo was firm about their announcement about the shared API and I don't see it as a debatable outcome, despite what many are arguing in this thread.

For that reason I expect this new device to launch soon, to be the first of the family of brother devices, and it will be a force to be reckoned with in the new generation, I think Sony and MS do well to pay attention to that force.

Let's remember, Sony, nay not one competitor was able to topple Nintendo in the handheld space. Translating the success from the handheld space onto all their devices is menacing to the twins.


Hi, padib! I wouldn't say it wouldn't be not even close to as bad as Java vs C++ (since Java is much slower because it isn't pre-compiled). I'm talking about something more like Unity: you write one code and it exports native code for several platforms. This way you have native code, pretty fast, and just wrote it once.

The only overhead I can see is that if the idea is: write one code and the SDK will simply export it for the home console and automaticaly export a downgraded port for the handheld, we would have a more high-level abstract code. It would potentially cut the punch of the console at half from what we know it. Basically, let's say that a console like that with a GTX660 wouldn't have advantages compared to a normal low-level console with a GTX650 that would normally give you half the fps a 660 would.

I believe we need to wait for more details about what a single API means. It could mean:

- Handheld and home console will have SDKs with the same programming language and similar APIs, easier to learn, easier to port.

- Both will have an Unity-like SDK that exports automatically the code for them. Developer will have to downgrade the game to run on the handheld and porting would be optional.

- The same as above but with automatic porting. It's a complex thing to do and the result won't be that optimized.

iPhone and iPad are good examples, but pay attention that a lot of Vita games have better visuals, even if the current iDevices use a way more powerful hardware. The last porting of Bioshock really showed a lot of weakness on these devices.



Sony is doomed... I cannot see it staying in the market for much longer anyway!



Switch!!!

zorg1000 said:

Well Nintendo likely has no desire to get in a spec war with MS/Sony and the whole point of this is for Nintendo to become self reliant, increase software output and maximize software sales and increase profits.

HDS-$199, between Vita & Wii U in terms of power, capable of running Wii U engines at a lower resolution.

HDS TV-$199, slight upgrade over Wii U, similar to leap from GC to Wii, extra power is to allow games to play at 1080p resolution.

Vita has been $199 since 2013 and I'm assuming sold at a profit. It's completely feasible to believe a moderately more powerful device can be sold at that price for a profit 3 years later.

Wii U is $299, I believe at a profit now, next year will likely see a $50 price reduction and removing the Gamepad could easily take another $50 off the price. A slight power upgrade with no Gamepad could retail for $199 in 2016 at a profit.


GPUs aren't devices as simple as that. Double the power and then you double the resolution. It's not the way it works. They aren't like that. GPUs have several bottlenecks and it's hard to determine which one is giving you problems (it can even be more than one). And mobile GPUs aren't nowhere near similar to console/desktop GPUs.

What you are proposing isn't possible from a technical standpoint. You would need manual porting and that kinda defeats the whole Fusion concept.