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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Sony and MS have the courage to compete with Nintendo in 2016?

 

How will this play out?

Sony will compete but MS will status quo 98 24.02%
 
MS will compete but Sony will status quo 21 5.15%
 
Both twins will compete 152 37.25%
 
Nintendo won't be hindered. 137 33.58%
 
Total:408
Ninsect on 23 December 2014
fedfed said:
Sony is doomed... I cannot see it staying in the market for much longer anyway!

Deja vu, bro



The One and Only

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zorg1000 on 23 December 2014
torok said:
zorg1000 said:
 

Well Nintendo likely has no desire to get in a spec war with MS/Sony and the whole point of this is for Nintendo to become self reliant, increase software output and maximize software sales and increase profits.

HDS-$199, between Vita & Wii U in terms of power, capable of running Wii U engines at a lower resolution.

HDS TV-$199, slight upgrade over Wii U, similar to leap from GC to Wii, extra power is to allow games to play at 1080p resolution.

Vita has been $199 since 2013 and I'm assuming sold at a profit. It's completely feasible to believe a moderately more powerful device can be sold at that price for a profit 3 years later.

Wii U is $299, I believe at a profit now, next year will likely see a $50 price reduction and removing the Gamepad could easily take another $50 off the price. A slight power upgrade with no Gamepad could retail for $199 in 2016 at a profit.


GPUs aren't devices as simple as that. Double the power and then you double the resolution. It's not the way it works. They aren't like that. GPUs have several bottlenecks and it's hard to determine which one is giving you problems (it can even be more than one). And mobile GPUs aren't nowhere near similar to console/desktop GPUs.

What you are proposing isn't possible from a technical standpoint. You would need manual porting and that kinda defeats the whole Fusion concept.

I don't know much about things from a technical standpoint, so perhaps u are right.

But why would they use a mobile gpu for one and a console/desktop gpu for one, couldn't they use the same mobile gpu for both?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

torok on 23 December 2014
zorg1000 said:

I don't know much about things from a technical standpoint, so perhaps u are right.

But why would they use a mobile gpu for one and a console/desktop gpu for one, couldn't they use the same mobile gpu for both?


They could, but right now you can't find one that would beat PS360. The Wii U GPU is a good bit more advanced. 2016 mobile GPUs won't be able to beat the performance on the Wii U and will be lucky to be ahead of PS360.

I'm ignoring Nvidia Tegra promises since they broke every single one with Tegra 3 and 4, so K1 will be a wait and see for me. I will upgrade my Tegra 3-powered N7 for a K1 device (Nexus 9 or Tegra Note) and will have a better idea of what they are bringing to the table.



Bet with jetforcejiminy: PS4 will pass the Wii lifetime numbers.

GTAexpert on 23 December 2014
torok said:
zorg1000 said:
 

I don't know much about things from a technical standpoint, so perhaps u are right.

But why would they use a mobile gpu for one and a console/desktop gpu for one, couldn't they use the same mobile gpu for both?


They could, but right now you can't find one that would beat PS360. The Wii U GPU is a good bit more advanced. 2016 mobile GPUs won't be able to beat the performance on the Wii U and will be lucky to be ahead of PS360.

I'm ignoring Nvidia Tegra promises since they broke every single one with Tegra 3 and 4, so K1 will be a wait and see for me. I will upgrade my Tegra 3-powered N7 for a K1 device (Nexus 9 or Tegra Note) and will have a better idea of what they are bringing to the table.

Even if Tegra K1 is better than PS360 it will make Nintendo next handheld far more expensive than consumers are willing to pay for it and it would also make their next home console severely underpowered if its integrated into it. It has more disadvantages than advantages.



2Ultra on 23 December 2014

With the Wii U, this is the first geneartaion where I have basically not stuck with a Nintendo console.  I would not buy their next in 2016 if it happened.

Nintendo basically has to launch around the same time or after the PS5/Xbox Two to have a chance, and will need equal or superior hardware. Third parties would not pay much attention to them on a new console with the staying power PS4 currently has. A new Nintendo system would be in a worse position than the Wii U is right now, and probably be their "Dreamcast" if it happened anywhere in or near 2016.

 



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TheJimbo1234 on 23 December 2014
padib said:
TheJimbo1234 said:

- Same content across all platforms is becoming old hat (just cloud gaming). It hasn't helped to sell anything.

- It is a fact that handheld sales are down year on year for a while now. New people move to phones and people grow up and stop buying handhelds meaning the market is only retracting. You say it won't retract but don't have a shred of proof. Look at the numbers and pattern - it is not even negative cyclical retraction, but simply just neative and linear, also know as the worst.

- Volume of games means little. Look at the shovelware for the Wii. Also unless some new IPs actually start coming out, few people will care about twice as many games with Mario and Link in. Also from the looks of it, Nintendo are not very competent and programming as they have not dealt with new techniques for years. Either they will have to hire many more staff (large overheads), or still fire out old fashioned games. This never helps sales.

- New IPs? Like what exactly? (Only post those that have been a large hit).

-Jap games have been stagnating long before the Wii. Even FF has died a bit of a death. The market has shifted towards CoD styled games (which is a shame, but that is how it is).

- Cheaper development is always welcome to any company. However this is assuming that the hardware or extra staff do not leech into this.

-Game streaming has been on the PC for sometime now, and it hasn't been popular. Fact is, people like sitting on their couch, with their mates, watching a big tv and playing on a console. Few people want to do this on the toilet or in their bedroom alone.

- Moores law will/is already showing the problems with consoles and handhelds, and showing the advantage of phones/tablets short product cycle. By 2016, phones will have significantly increased in power (theory says by 100%, reality is a bit less then that). This happens every two years, so phones/tablets will have the best hardware in them, yet the consoles are fixed with very low end hardware which is always dated on release. Now back in the day, doubling performance gave you little return, but that is no longer the case. Doubling performance gives astronomical returns meaning fixed hardware is quickly made obsolete. Now consoles have the advantage of size compared to phones/tablets, but a handheld does not.  

In short; a handheld will date increibly quickly.

- The makret begs to differ on cost etc. Look at the WiiU. Worst performing console - one of the worst selling consoles of all time. By 2016 a handheld should be able to outperform the WiiU. If not, Nintnedo are being cheap with hardware yet again. This does not bode well in a market which does want graphical power as part of the overall package.

The WiiU has very poor graphics. To argue otherwise shows your lack of understanding of hardware. Graphics are not subjective as some people claim, but fully quantifiable and comparable. With 4k tv's coming out, all the consoles will struggle. If you have a new console in 2016 that is not more powerful then the rest.....well we have seen what happens haven't we.

I think we're close to agreeing.

Take the topic of cost.

In it you mention that tablets upgrade every two years and hence a portable console can't keep up with quick technology. The unified API solves that issue because it would allow Nintendo to release upgrades to its handhelds or any other device at any increment they desire. It frees them from the 4-5 year lock it was stuck to before.

So we actually agree here. The only question that remains is if people will be willing to upgrade. I'm not sure if they will, but one thing is sure is that if people want to play Nintendo games, they will have much more ways to jump onboard. Therefore what will matter for Nintendo in the future won't be hardware sales, but software sales. Even if one device sold less than another, they will be looking at how many copies one game sold across all the devices.

As for the U, its cost was hicked due to an artificial need: the gamepad. It hicked the price barrier for the system. With the new API, Nintendo need not force a gamepad on its users anymore. It solves that problem too. If you need me to explain this let me know, but a good example is Smash, and the update to the WiiU's OS that allows one to control most of the screens with the Wiimote as well.

As for content.

Well, you and I agree that streaming is not a comparable solution to the unified API. The unified API does not involve latency, and in it you are owner of your software and need not be bound to an internet connection. There are many cons to streaming I personally am not a fan. This unified API is different if you disagree explain why.

Also, same content across all devices is old hat, but is a serious issue for Nintendo. They have mentioned repeatedly their struggle with pumping out games for a given platform, thus needing to halt production for games on the other. The unified platform allows them to solve this problem. Not just between the portables and home consoles, but between a predecessor hh and a successor hh as well as for the home consoles.

Regarding library

When I said volume, I was assuming a worst case scenario: that Nintendo would be the only developer on the system. In that sense, by increased volume I meant increased quality volume. In other words, instead of devloping two mario karts, they might have one mario kart and one other game of the same quality.

As for New IPs, Nintendo has released a few important ones. Perhaps Zorgs is better with lists but I'll try my hand at it:

- Wii Sports

- Nintendogs

- Brain Age

- Rhythm Heaven

- Pandora's Tower

- Wii Play

- Wii Fit

- Art Academy

- Pushmo

- Steel Driver

And then there are those they purchased, like W101, Bayonetta, Xenoblade, and more I can't think of.

Some of these are not big hits, but that doesn't matter because at the very least it demonstrates Nintendo's ability to create new franchises. Others were huge sellers at one time or another.

As for Japanese games, I agree that they have been on the decline, but like I said Nintendo has been able to ward that off, and were the biggest publisher last gen and are a huge publisher this gen. Nintendo is not your typical japanese publisher. Neither is Sony.

Basically it's my understanding that the unified api will lead to more new IPs and bigger, richer worlds for Nintendo's existing IPs.


- API is software. It does not matter about a unified api if the hardware is obsolete. Performance increases due to improvements in efficiency are always very limited compared to new hardware. The hardware can not change and that is the limiting factor. This is why short product cycles trumplong ones.

As for paying for upgrades? Not a chance. For some reason, the gaming market appears to be a poor market - they complain at a state-of-the-art console coming out for $499 whic will last for 4-5 years, but these same people merrily pay $1000+ over two or less years for a phone. It makes little sense, but most gamers don't like spending money.

But unified content means people can get away with buying less hardware. That does not really bode well for any company.

 

Unfied platform will mean that more time can go into a game....but it will be capped by the lowest performing platform, making extra time redundant.

Besides Wii Fit and Wii Sport (which are Wii specific), the other games are poor - compare them to new IPs found in the 7th gen. In short, most gamers have not heard of those games on that list, nor do they appeal to most gamers. Now how many gamers know about Uncharted, GoW etc? Nintnedos new IPs are very poor perfoming, especially when you consider units sold on the platform size. This is always going to be a problem for Nintendo unless they learn to help 3rd party devs and expand their player base beyond hardcore fans.



manuelogando40 on 23 December 2014

It has no sense!

nintendo will never end its single portable devices because they have Strong market on them. 



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

TreeTurtle on 23 December 2014
LordLichtenstein said:
Is this a joke thread? :)





nice

zorg1000 on 23 December 2014
manuelogando40 said:

It has no sense!

nintendo will never end its single portable devices because they have Strong market on them. 


I'm not quite sure what u mean, could u explain in a bit more detail please



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Unrivaledx on 23 December 2014

to soon they will Release the next Console when its time for the the PS5 and the next xbox. Nintendo will wait it out.