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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Sony and MS have the courage to compete with Nintendo in 2016?

 

How will this play out?

Sony will compete but MS will status quo 98 24.02%
 
MS will compete but Sony will status quo 21 5.15%
 
Both twins will compete 152 37.25%
 
Nintendo won't be hindered. 137 33.58%
 
Total:408
DanneSandin said:
Normchacho said:
DanneSandin said:

I don't know how you would describe the DS... That's two consoles that's evidence enough that Nintendo might hit it big next gen. But like I said, they need the 3rd parties; it's a lot safer a bet than trying to find the next Wii.

I'm talking home consoles, they are a very different game. There is simply no reason to think that Nintendo will be able to just add the WiiU sales to the 3DS sales.  How many WiiU owners don't have a 3DS? Why would people who decided against buying a Nintendo home console just hop on board because the 3DS was more popular...

haha I've just had the same conversation in this thread with someone else! I also pointed out that there's quite a lot of cross buying between the two consoles... I think that both consoles need something special to differentiate themselves; how many would buy two consoles that plays the same games?!

U guys don't seem to understand, Nintendo doesn't need consumers to buy both. By having a console and a handheld that cost the same and have all the same games, it allows consumers to buy the device based on what their preferences are. Currently we have 3DS at 48m and Wii U at 8m, for a total of 56m. Even if 75% of Wii U owners have a 3DS, that's still 50m.

The point is some people will choose the handheld, some will choose the console but by having both devices share a library, it allows games like Tropical Freeze, 3D World, Mario Kart 8 to sell better because they are no longer hindered by being on a single device with a low install base. If those games were on 3DS they could easily sell 3-4x as much

This also allows Nintendo to pump out games at a faster rate by not having to develop software for two seperate devices and significantly reduced 1st party software droughts.

By the end of this generation 3DS+Wii U sales will likely be around 80m, 70m or so when taking out the people who own both. Nintendo's objective is to maximize software output and software sales while keeping these 70m or customers happy.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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burninmylight said:
Aeolus451 said:
burninmylight said:
Aeolus451 said:
zorg1000 said:

No its not that simple. $50 price cut along with a few adult games won't do much for Wii U. I find it very odd anyone actually believes such a simple strategy would turn things around.


Why not? How is it not that simple? Nintendo hasn't tried anything like that yet and they just keep pumping out the kid games but it's still selling like crap. Hmmm, I wonder why. It needs to show that it's taking adult gamers seriously then more adults would buy the console. How many marios can the consumer market take before it's utterly burnt out on it? It needs new IP's.

 

 

 

Yeah, Nintendo is all Mario and rainbows.

Never said it was all mario and rainbows but I did say it was mostly mario and kid games. :D It still needs some more adult games. You

You don't sound like you weren't even aware that those games exist, which leaves me to believe that it doesn't matter if Nintendo publishes 100 "adult" games or zero, because you wouldn't purchase a Wii U anyway.

I knew of some of them. One of my friends bought a wii u when it first came out and I told him that if they came out with plenty of adult games or if I thought nintendo was gonna take adult gamers more seriously. It's always been a niche market in the nintendo ceo's eyes. 

You have to ask what adult games are on the wii u then ask how many adult games aren't on the wii u that are on the others. 



The courage?  They won't require it.  They are competing with eachother and aren't going to adapt their lifecycle for Nintendo..  They will accept that Nintendo is more powerfull for a couple 2-3 years and then come out again with something "much" more powerfull.



Versus_Evil said:

Why would they? NN next console we can assume won't have third party support that ship sailed along time ago that will take a long time to repair. Also by then the XO/4 will be in their stride . The real question is.

Do NN have the "courage" to release another console that early? For me personnaly its a little to early.


Nintendo can get third party support any time they so wish. They simple need to give third parties what they want which they haven't done since the N64. In today's world they need all the online features of the other consoles, a system which is powerfull enough and blood simple to port games to. Untill Nintendo does this it's safe to assume Nintendo isn't actively pursuing cross platform support. In 2016 if they came out with something similar architecturally to the PS4 but twice the power with proper online features Nintendo would get all the big cross platform content. Some of the smaller games wouldn't come unless the sales of cross platform gamers were high enough to justifty the expense of porting.



zorg1000 said:

U guys don't seem to understand, Nintendo doesn't need consumers to buy both. By having a console and a handheld that cost the same and have all the same games, it allows consumers to buy the device based on what their preferences are. Currently we have 3DS at 48m and Wii U at 8m, for a total of 56m. Even if 75% of Wii U owners have a 3DS, that's still 50m.

The point is some people will choose the handheld, some will choose the console but by having both devices share a library, it allows games like Tropical Freeze, 3D World, Mario Kart 8 to sell better because they are no longer hindered by being on a single device with a low install base. If those games were on 3DS they could easily sell 3-4x as much

This also allows Nintendo to pump out games at a faster rate by not having to develop software for two seperate devices and significantly reduced 1st party software droughts.

By the end of this generation 3DS+Wii U sales will likely be around 80m, 70m or so when taking out the people who own both. Nintendo's objective is to maximize software output and software sales while keeping these 70m or customers happy.

Quoted for importance.

These are some of the most important points of this whole discussion, yet people seem to be completely missing and/or ignoring them here, leading to arguments that are completely irrelevant to this entire thread. Read this post and grasp the reality of the situation, guys!



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

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padib said:
Conina said:

I doubt that very much. Revenue of mobile apps (main share: mobile games) is climbing fast each year.

  • iOS app revenue 2012 = ~5 billion US$
  • iOS app revenue 2013 = over 10 billion US$
  • iOS app 2014 = over 3 billion US$ each quarter, probably 13 - 15 billion US$ for the whole year.
  • app revenue in the Google play store is growing even faster, together they will top $20 billion US$ this year
  • gamepad-extensions and similar solutions for iOS and Android get better and cheaper each month

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2014/01/07App-Store-Sales-Top-10-Billion-in-2013.html

I'm loving the graphs. Here are my thoughts.

Firstly, the curves seem to be plateauing in the next 5 years. The trend is already bending downwards on the right graph, and slightly bending downwards on the left trend.

Secondly, I was talking with a friend about a F2P game called Gods of War or something like that. It's something like clash of clans. This guy has been playing this game for almost a year, he's dirt poor and alredy spent 250$ on it. Apparently some of his noob friends already spent up to 1000$ on in-game purchases and they are not even in the top clans of their kingdom, far from it. So my point is that these numbers don't necessarily translate into software sales, and we do not know if these sales would have been sooner spent on Nintendo games.

So there you have it, just my two cents on that.

But in the end, other than concluding that Nintendo should cave in and make games on smartphones, what do these graphs show? Also, if the twins are largely unaffected by this data, why should we conclude that the portable line will be any further hindered than it already has been?

The problem with mobile revenues is that it is spread out to many many games. Kind of a wii like situation. There isn't justification for largescale games moving to the platform. But there is justification for smaller games and lots of them.  To put it into perspective we get more tv show episodes than big budget movies and people watch more tv episodes by far than movies. But that doesn't change the fact that movies are still a thriving business. And with the twins growing versus last gen all signs point towards a healthy and robust large scale game economic environment.  One day mobile may be able to enter into the console space but that will come from actually creating consoles at which point what's the difference? They are now low end consoles. We already see many android consoles but they seem to be failing.  Apple could gain traction by putting power into apple tv and bundling with a controller. Would love to see it happen. More competition for cross platform games the more Nintendo stands out with its' exclusives. What will end up happing with android consoles, an apple consoles and steam box is that Sony and Microsoft will become more watered down as cross platform games are not playable in so many ways and Nintendo ends up the big winner with it's exclusive content.



Cheebee said:
zorg1000 said:

U guys don't seem to understand, Nintendo doesn't need consumers to buy both. By having a console and a handheld that cost the same and have all the same games, it allows consumers to buy the device based on what their preferences are. Currently we have 3DS at 48m and Wii U at 8m, for a total of 56m. Even if 75% of Wii U owners have a 3DS, that's still 50m.

The point is some people will choose the handheld, some will choose the console but by having both devices share a library, it allows games like Tropical Freeze, 3D World, Mario Kart 8 to sell better because they are no longer hindered by being on a single device with a low install base. If those games were on 3DS they could easily sell 3-4x as much

This also allows Nintendo to pump out games at a faster rate by not having to develop software for two seperate devices and significantly reduced 1st party software droughts.

By the end of this generation 3DS+Wii U sales will likely be around 80m, 70m or so when taking out the people who own both. Nintendo's objective is to maximize software output and software sales while keeping these 70m or customers happy.

Quoted for importance.

These are some of the most important points of this whole discussion, yet people seem to be completely missing and/or ignoring them here, leading to arguments that are completely irrelevant to this entire thread. Read this post and grasp the reality of the situation, guys!

I kinda blame the OP for the confusion, it just kinda rants about what do MS/Sony need to do to react, when in all honesty they really don't need to do anything. They offer poweful, multimedia devices with AAA western games and are finding alot of success with this approach, Nintendo's strategy doesn't affect this in any meaningful way so alot of the posters in here are just arguing against that aspect.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
DanneSandin said:
Normchacho said:
DanneSandin said:

I don't know how you would describe the DS... That's two consoles that's evidence enough that Nintendo might hit it big next gen. But like I said, they need the 3rd parties; it's a lot safer a bet than trying to find the next Wii.

I'm talking home consoles, they are a very different game. There is simply no reason to think that Nintendo will be able to just add the WiiU sales to the 3DS sales.  How many WiiU owners don't have a 3DS? Why would people who decided against buying a Nintendo home console just hop on board because the 3DS was more popular...

haha I've just had the same conversation in this thread with someone else! I also pointed out that there's quite a lot of cross buying between the two consoles... I think that both consoles need something special to differentiate themselves; how many would buy two consoles that plays the same games?!

U guys don't seem to understand, Nintendo doesn't need consumers to buy both. By having a console and a handheld that cost the same and have all the same games, it allows consumers to buy the device based on what their preferences are. Currently we have 3DS at 48m and Wii U at 8m, for a total of 56m. Even if 75% of Wii U owners have a 3DS, that's still 50m.

The point is some people will choose the handheld, some will choose the console but by having both devices share a library, it allows games like Tropical Freeze, 3D World, Mario Kart 8 to sell better because they are no longer hindered by being on a single device with a low install base. If those games were on 3DS they could easily sell 3-4x as much

This also allows Nintendo to pump out games at a faster rate by not having to develop software for two seperate devices and significantly reduced 1st party software droughts.

By the end of this generation 3DS+Wii U sales will likely be around 80m, 70m or so when taking out the people who own both. Nintendo's objective is to maximize software output and software sales while keeping these 70m or customers happy.

But the way nintendo works is not like this. 

When they are making a handheld game, all the game is designed to be played on a handheld, short sections, you can stop at any time, etc.

When they are developing for a home console, is completly different. longer gaming sections or a great focus on local multiplayer, etc.

The fisrt game they develop together was smash, but we can see that however they have the same characters, the games are very different.

But, is difficult to se a home console Zelda being ported to handheld.

 

In my opinion, lots of games will be shared(VC games, indies, and like 50% to 70% of the new releases), but home consoles and handheld will have their own exclusive games, experiences that cant be played elsewhere, that where designed for playing on a handheld/home console.



jonathanalis said:
zorg1000 said:
DanneSandin said:
Normchacho said:
DanneSandin said:

I don't know how you would describe the DS... That's two consoles that's evidence enough that Nintendo might hit it big next gen. But like I said, they need the 3rd parties; it's a lot safer a bet than trying to find the next Wii.

I'm talking home consoles, they are a very different game. There is simply no reason to think that Nintendo will be able to just add the WiiU sales to the 3DS sales.  How many WiiU owners don't have a 3DS? Why would people who decided against buying a Nintendo home console just hop on board because the 3DS was more popular...

haha I've just had the same conversation in this thread with someone else! I also pointed out that there's quite a lot of cross buying between the two consoles... I think that both consoles need something special to differentiate themselves; how many would buy two consoles that plays the same games?!

U guys don't seem to understand, Nintendo doesn't need consumers to buy both. By having a console and a handheld that cost the same and have all the same games, it allows consumers to buy the device based on what their preferences are. Currently we have 3DS at 48m and Wii U at 8m, for a total of 56m. Even if 75% of Wii U owners have a 3DS, that's still 50m.

The point is some people will choose the handheld, some will choose the console but by having both devices share a library, it allows games like Tropical Freeze, 3D World, Mario Kart 8 to sell better because they are no longer hindered by being on a single device with a low install base. If those games were on 3DS they could easily sell 3-4x as much

This also allows Nintendo to pump out games at a faster rate by not having to develop software for two seperate devices and significantly reduced 1st party software droughts.

By the end of this generation 3DS+Wii U sales will likely be around 80m, 70m or so when taking out the people who own both. Nintendo's objective is to maximize software output and software sales while keeping these 70m or customers happy.

But the way nintendo works is not like this. 

When they are making a handheld game, all the game is designed to be played on a handheld, short sections, you can stop at any time, etc.

When they are developing for a home console, is completly different. longer gaming sections or a great focus on local multiplayer, etc.

The fisrt game they develop together was smash, but we can see that however they have the same characters, the games are very different.

But, is difficult to se a home console Zelda being ported to handheld.

 

In my opinion, lots of games will be shared(VC games, indies, and like 50% to 70% of the new releases), but home consoles and handheld will have their own exclusive games, experiences that cant be played elsewhere, that where designed for playing on a handheld/home console.

That's not true at all, NSMB2/NSMBU, Mario 3D Land/3D World, Mario Kart 7/8, Ocarina of Time 3D/Wind Waker HD, DKC Returns/Tropical Freeze, Smash Bros 3DS/Wii U, Lego City Undercover/Chase Begins, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate 3DS/Wii U. Most of Wii Us big hitters are just bigger/prettier, sequels/upgrades of 3DS titles. Also games like Paper Mario, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion are games that started on consoles and have been successful on both handhelds and consoles.

I don't buy that 3D Zelda couldn't work on a handheld because we already OoT port and are getting MM next year. The majority of Nintendo titles work just as well on a console or a handheld, obviously some are more suited to one or the other but it doesn't change the fact that they are completely playable on either.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

That's not true at all, NSMB2/NSMBU, Mario 3D Land/3D World, Mario Kart 7/8, Ocarina of Time 3D/Wind Waker HD, DKC Returns/Tropical Freeze, Smash Bros 3DS/Wii U, Lego City Undercover/Chase Begins, Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate 3DS/Wii U. Most of Wii Us big hitters are just bigger/prettier, sequels/upgrades of 3DS titles. Also games like Paper Mario, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion are games that started on consoles and have been successful on both handhelds and consoles.

I don't buy that 3D Zelda couldn't work on a handheld because we already OoT port and are getting MM next year. The majority of Nintendo titles work just as well on a console or a handheld, obviously some are more suited to one or the other but it doesn't change the fact that they are completely playable on either.


I agree. Not to mention that the N3DS is getting Xenoblade, which has a game world comparable to Skyrim in size. I think there will be very few exclusives games on either system, but I do think that there will be exclusive features on shared games depending on what you play it on. I can see a lot of these games taking a Smash 3DS vs Smash Wii U approach to being on numerous platforms, minus the inability to play online across platforms of course. That only goes for 1st party titles however, as I doubt any 3rd parties would care to do much beyond graphical stuff.

But even when a game is exclusive to the next console, I see a system where, like with remote play, if you own the game on the home console and own the handheld, you can continue playing that game via streaming to the handheld. That's why I just don't see Nintendo's next handheld not having a constant internet connection like phones do. Not if it's trying to stay modern.