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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Sony and MS have the courage to compete with Nintendo in 2016?

 

How will this play out?

Sony will compete but MS will status quo 98 24.02%
 
MS will compete but Sony will status quo 21 5.15%
 
Both twins will compete 152 37.25%
 
Nintendo won't be hindered. 137 33.58%
 
Total:408

Neither Sony nor MS would follow Ninty in a 2016 launch, and if that console must replace both 3DS and Wii U, 2016 is too early for Ninty too, even more so considering that Ninty never rushes HW development, to avoid having to accept compromises on quality.
It will be 2017 or 2018 for Ninty and 2018 or 2019 for Sony and MS. Some form of unified home-portable design could be adopted by Sony and MS too, as mobile gaming will have overwhelmed standalone portables too much by then.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


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GTAexpert said:
zorg1000 said:
GTAexpert said:
Lol is this a joke? Its Nintendo who needs to be worried, not Sony or MS. Even with a unified platform Nintendo can't imagine selling half the numbers of next PS and Xbox consoles.

I think you need to get a reality check, its obvious you're just posting what you wish to happen, not something that will actually happen.


Why wouldn't a unified platform be able to sell half of PS/XB consoles?

Week ending Dec 6

PS4-713k

XB1-513k

3DS-515k+Wii U-187k=702k

Year to date 2014

PS4-12.1 million

XB1-6.4 million

3DS-7.5m+Wii U-2.7m=10.2m

In the most recent week and 2014 totals, Nintendo's platforms combined have sold better than XB1 by a decent margin and are just slightly below PS4. Obviously going for a unified platform where the handheld & console share a library could see slightly lower hardware sales do to less incentive for consumers to own both but there will still be people who do. So let's drop it down a little and that still would put it smack dab in the middle of PS4/XB1.

At the correct price point with effective marketing and a strong software output, there is no reason to believe a unified platform from Nintendo couldn't sell competitively with PS/XB.

You're completely ignoring the price factor. 3DS is the biggest seller among the Nintendo hardware and its price is less than a third of the PS4. Even the Wii U is a lot cheaper than PS4 and XB1. If they are at the same price level which would happen for a competitive console next-gen PS and Xbox consoles would easily outsell them.

Not to mention that the library of PS4 and XB1 hasn't come on its own yet, and once they do both the consoles will sell a lot more.

I did take price into account, look at my last paragraph, "at the correct price point". I don't think Nintendo has any plans to go for a PS5/XB4 level system. I think instead we will see the handled version be powered between Vita & Wii U, something that can offer Wii U like visuals on a small screen and lower resolution and the console version will be a slight upgrade over Wii U similar to the leap from GC to Wii, it will be able to run Wii U level games at 1080p resolution. Devices like this could feasibly sell for $199 in 2016/2017.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DanneSandin said:
zorg1000 said:
GTAexpert said:
Lol is this a joke? Its Nintendo who needs to be worried, not Sony or MS. Even with a unified platform Nintendo can't imagine selling half the numbers of next PS and Xbox consoles.

I think you need to get a reality check, its obvious you're just posting what you wish to happen, not something that will actually happen.


Why wouldn't a unified platform be able to sell half of PS/XB consoles?

Week ending Dec 6

PS4-713k

XB1-513k

3DS-515k+Wii U-187k=702k

Year to date 2014

PS4-12.1 million

XB1-6.4 million

3DS-7.5m+Wii U-2.7m=10.2m

In the most recent week and 2014 totals, Nintendo's platforms combined have sold better than XB1 by a decent margin and are just slightly below PS4. Obviously going for a unified platform where the handheld & console share a library could see slightly lower hardware sales do to less incentive for consumers to own both but there will still be people who do. So let's drop it down a little and that still would put it smack dab in the middle of PS4/XB1.

At the correct price point with effective marketing and a strong software output, there is no reason to believe a unified platform from Nintendo couldn't sell competitively with PS/XB.

But you gotta remember that that's a lot of cross buying; people that already own a Wii U is likely to also own a 3DS... I mena, a lot of thesales of the 3DS is due to people owning more than one of those...


Yes I did take that into account. Wii U+3DS is at 10.2m this year, if they were unified perhaps sales would be more like 8-9 million or so which is still right between XB1 & PS4.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JustBeingReal said:


Thanks :)

 

1) I'd agree if moving over to unified memory and advanced, but cheap (if production starts somewhere between July-August 2018) processing technology wasn't easily accessible to them.

It also benefits their own developers.

The past choices only became stupid in hindsight, like N64's cartridge tech, cartridges had been standard for multiple generations and CD had been very expensive prior to PS1 coming out.

Gamecube didn't really have any stupid hardware querks.

Wii was the market leader and it's tech appealed to the masses, outside of the normal gamer crowd, so I'd argue that it's not necessarily stupid what Nintendo has done, at least from a perspective of the kind of technology they've used in their platforms.

 

X86 becoming a standard within the console market hasn't happened until the 8th gen, it's likely one of the primary reasons why Wii U doesn't get 3rd party support. Nintendo actually wanted 3rd party support for the Wii U, which is apparent from Reggie's comments when Wii U was unveiled, maybe it was all marketing fluff and no actual action (which is one stupid moment for Nintendo I'll give you,  given that devs later said that Nintendo's support for their hardware to external studios was very much lacking) to make the 3rd party/Nintendo relationship a solid one, but from a business and importantly a financial point of view if Nintendo wants money, then they need to develop their next system to work for all of their potential developer base.

Wii U appeals to Indies and Indies are the future too, so even if Nintendo looks to appease both their own studios and indies then they need to use technology that makes everyone's lives easier, which means Universal Memory (because of the flexibility that will bring) and obviously the cheaper, but more advanced AMD tech will just be so much better compared to what is currently in use on basically every console and PC.

The benefits of waiting for this memory  and processing architecture to become a thing are glaringly obvious to anyone that even takes a slight interest in the market, Nintendo are apparently looking to hire talented advisors on this, like Mark Cerny type figures to build their next platform, so it just makes sense that they'd use this tech in their next box.

 

2) We don't hear these rumblings from anyone besides people that don't develop on PS4 and XB1. At PSX the developers were saying that there's a lot of potential for what can be done on PS4, XB1 is similar architecture so by extension it to has a measure of that same potential, there's quite a bit of life left in both boxes, with GPGPU, HSA and all of those features that can be tapped into, that just hasn't happened yet.

Both consoles have the legs to achieve some amazing things 4-5 years from now, optimization has barely started, right now the results we're seeing are from just filling up the resources of each platform, not using them efficiently and refining code to the upteenth degree.

2019 would mean a 6 year standard, which fits with when Sony has released in the past. Sony and Microsoft don't want to P*** Off all of their install base by releasing too soon. The tech in both consoles isn't weak for it's intended market.

 

I guess it's always possible that with the tech being available to the industry that Sony and Microsoft will bite earlier and release in say 2018, but I just don't buy they'd be willing to annoy their respective install bases. A 5 year generation isn't really necessary when we haven't yet seen what PS4 or XB1 can really do. It's only when technology has been fully taken advantage of and developers can't do anything new with either system that it becomes necessary to release the successor to your current platform.

You're very much welcome!

I hope you're right about point one! Being a Nintendo fan, I'd like to see them give their HW the best possible chances and tech, so that would be really neat. But considering how Nintendo always seem to flounder with their HW I remain skeptical.

Since this is still early in the gen, I'd expect to see much improvements in the games to come, especially when we start to move away freom last gen more and more, and not trying to make a game fit for 4 different consoles spanning 2 gens... I'm no expert at all about these kind of things, but from what I gather, this gen isn't that big a leap in tech power that the last gen was, no? So that's why I'm thinking it won't last as long, and considering that most gen has lasted about 5 years, that's why I said 2018 - but 2019 isn't improbable at all. Maybe it makes more sense to launch new consoles then, but I don't think we'll have to wait to 2020 to see new systems from Sony and MS.

But the question is, how will Nintendo's console(s) stack up to PS5/XB2 if it's released quite a few yearS before them? I wonder how that'll effect Nintendo...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

zorg1000 said:
DanneSandin said:

But you gotta remember that that's a lot of cross buying; people that already own a Wii U is likely to also own a 3DS... I mena, a lot of thesales of the 3DS is due to people owning more than one of those...


Yes I did take that into account. Wii U+3DS is at 10.2m this year, if they were unified perhaps sales would be more like 8-9 million or so which is still right between XB1 & PS4.

It'll definetely be interesting to see how a unified Nintendo system stacks up and how much it'll sell. If it only sells to the Nintendo fan base, then I think we can subtract all the 3DS sales...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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Aeolus451 said:
burninmylight said:
Aeolus451 said:
zorg1000 said:

No its not that simple. $50 price cut along with a few adult games won't do much for Wii U. I find it very odd anyone actually believes such a simple strategy would turn things around.


Why not? How is it not that simple? Nintendo hasn't tried anything like that yet and they just keep pumping out the kid games but it's still selling like crap. Hmmm, I wonder why. It needs to show that it's taking adult gamers seriously then more adults would buy the console. How many marios can the consumer market take before it's utterly burnt out on it? It needs new IP's.

 

 

 

Yeah, Nintendo is all Mario and rainbows.

Never said it was all mario and rainbows but I did say it was mostly mario and kid games. :D It still needs some more adult games. You

You don't sound like you weren't even aware that those games exist, which leaves me to believe that it doesn't matter if Nintendo publishes 100 "adult" games or zero, because you wouldn't purchase a Wii U anyway.



gigantor21 said:

Having one game library across all hardware sounds dangerously similar to Sony's port-heavy "console on the go" strategy with their handhelds, and would make it far harder to convince people to buy more than one Nintendo device. Indeed, judging by how the WiiU has been selling compared to it's competition, it seems that even offering unique software built around different devices isn't enough to mitigate that issue. People outside Nintendo's core fanbase seem more than happy enough to just go to the 3DS for their Nintendo games and leave it at that.

I really don't think this strategy is the slam dunk you make it out to be. To me, it seems more to be a necessity borne out of limited resources/manpower--the strategy they've come up with to avoid the constant delays that plagued the WiiU in it's first year. Nor would it mitigate the issue of Nintendo missing out on key third-party software, as several people have pointed out.

Yes that's one issue of Wii U, it costs 50% more than the most expensive 3DS sku and it's software is about 50% more expensive while having most of its major releases being HD sequels to 3DS titles and 3DS has a vastly larger library of games. All of this combined has led to 3DS hurting Wii U sales. If Wii U were essentially a $129-169 3DS TV, it would free Nintendo up to pump out more software for 3DS (games like 3D World/Tropical Freeze/Mario Kart 8, etc wouldn't be hindered by the low install base of Wii U and would easily sell 2-3x as much) and it wouldn't matter that it's only at 8 million sold over the course of 2 years because it's bringing in a profit and software could sell better.

So next-gen Nintendo should make a typical handheld and a TV version with all the same games, this brings down R&D costs while being able to pump out more software.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I don't think the question beckons how Sony and Microsoft are going to compete or how they are going to react. Nintendo has a lot to prove here, not Microsoft and Sony, besides we still barely know anything about Nintendo's next console as is.



padib said:
TheJimbo1234 said:

Assuming it is Nintendo. For all we know, it could be Apple.

Also you assume that it will have greater or equal power. The WiiU came out years after the 360 and PS3 and had equal power so that isn't a good record. Plus, the game library is very poor for Nintendo. They have not had a new and successful IP for years, and the volume of Western based games has only crashed since the N64.

Your prediction is just garbage. You ignore power, price, library, market share etc and just ramble on about some victory you want to see, rather than trying to predict what will happen and why.

Sony and MS would only respond with a price cut if they think this "possibly" new Nintendo system will be competition and comes out at a competitive price.

"While Nintendo steals the home console show by basically translating its portable victory across all its devices,"

That's my position on price. The first device of many will most likely be a handheld, because the 3DS is the first to need an upgrade. Thus as a handheld I expect it to follow the pricing model of the DS. Why? Because I don't expect it to contain any expensive hardware components (other than CPU and RAM) this time. It will only need to integrate every component in the WiiU (excluding CPU and RAM). The New3DS already laid the foundation for the dual analogue, as well as the NFC reader. They're basically at parity now when it comes to components other than CPU and RAM.

Why would a handheld compete with the home consoles? Because it is a family of meshed devices, no longer standalone. Hence "gamechanger".

There's nothing in OP that an interested or informed reader could miss.

Don't tell me I say garbage. I try my best to write informed pieces that I've thought about thoroughly. Also I recommend reading the thread next time, as I've answered most of it already, specifically about the graphics arms race.


Handheld market? Good luck with a new product when the majority of that market is now dead due to phones. This is why the vast majority of sales have been from Japan and no where else.

Because "meshed" devices helped with the psp...oh wait. It only works if people buy into it, and the ONLY company that has succeeded with this gimmick is Apple - one of the wealthiest companies in the world.

What you said was rubbish. I would love to see you pitch those opinions at a meeting and see the reactions. You never accurately addressed any point; market share, market growth, competition, cost of production, game library etc. Thos are actual points. Saying "I really like Nintendo and want a new console from them soon, and for it to do well" is not addressing anything besides telling people your preference.



I don't think that Nintendo will let their IPs out on tablets and other 3rd party devices. I think the unified OS is for their handheld/console plans. In this aspect they are going to kill it. Tons of games will be coming out that will work on both systems. Cross Platform play will be a big thing for them, and game droughts will be a thing of the past. It will make it rewarding for gamers to own both the handheld and the console.

But judging from Miyamotos quote and the job listing for a hardware architect, I'll have to say that this won't hit until 2017. They also upgraded the 3DS to last that long. They probably should have upgraded it a bit more, but they are not facing any competition from the Vita.