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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Sony and MS have the courage to compete with Nintendo in 2016?

 

How will this play out?

Sony will compete but MS will status quo 98 24.02%
 
MS will compete but Sony will status quo 21 5.15%
 
Both twins will compete 152 37.25%
 
Nintendo won't be hindered. 137 33.58%
 
Total:408

Nintendo aren't releasing their next home console in 2016.



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padib said:
Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:
Wait, why do you think that Nintendo will release their console in 2016?

Welp, they are already working on the software and the 3DS launched in early 2011. Considering a GBA-style lifespan (given worse sales for the 3DS in the west) and Nintendo's need for a new hardware platform due to staggering sales of the 3DS and U in the west, it's only logical.

Also, if I remember the timeframe for the new business strategies announced at the same briefing (QoL, Unified API) were to come into motion within two years.


A handheld sure. A home console, highly unlikely. Even if Nintendo were working on games for the next nintendo home console, that doesn't tell us much about a launch other then its in the next 4 years. The fault of the Wii U was partially that Nintendo only gave themselves to years to ready its launch window software and we saw what happened with that. 



JustBeingReal said:
Nintendo would never release their next gen console 4 years after the release of the last one, which is what you're suggesting if they release Nintendo Fusion or whatever it's going to be called at the end of 2016. As others have said New 3DS hasn't even launched in the west yet, a year and a few months shy of 2 years on the market was never going to be the lifespan of their most current handheld.

Most likely New 3DS was released to keep 3DS architecture on the market until it's time to launch this unified Handheld/Home console that has been rumored (assuming the rumors are true).

Another factor that disputes this assertion of a 2016 release is that some major Processor and Memory architectural changes will be occurring in 2016, which means that those developments need to filter down into manufacturing for costs to become reasonable to implement for the console market.
AMD will start to manufacture a new ARM CPU core (for the handheld) and they're also re-entering the multi-threaded CPU core market with their Zen line of processors.

There's also the advent of Universal Memory which will potentially go into production for the server market next year, but costs will be very high in the beginning, so a few years to reduce that would make all of this brand new technology much more affordable and that means Nintendo can still be the pioneers of all of this new tech in the home console and handheld markets.

By 2017-2018 cost of manufacturing will have come down.
Launching in 2016 is a mistake, makes no sense unless Nintendo wants to use archaic technology compared to what's going to be available to them a year or so later.

Another factor to consider is that Sony and Microsoft won't be launching until 2019 at the earliest, if Nintendo shares similar architecture to PS5 and XB2, as well as having comparable performance, which will be a huge improvement over PS4 and XB1 then they put themselves in a position to actually gain 3rd party support.

With fusion the handheld market may become a consideration to 3rd party publishers if porting to the handheld side is a none issue from a development point of view, because this unified API will just mean it's a part of building the Nintendo console version of those 3rd party games.

Nintendo may just hit the nail on it's head if they can wait and build Fusion as the first console platform to use Unified Memory, AMD Zen and their ARM K12 technology, along with the current GPU tech of the time.
Sony & Microsoft will use the technology a year later, so it makes sense for 3rd party to port across all platforms.


Nintendo would be fools to go with the older technology that would be available at production for launch in late 2016. 2016 makes no sense! Not from a launch schedule of past platforms point of view, on the handheld or home console markets and absolutely not when you look at the huge upgrades in technology that will potentially be available to any console platform holders a year later.

TBH keeping within a year of the launch schedules of Sony and Microsoft actually makes the most sense because it means costs will be that bit cheaper and Nintendo has always been about launching at an affordable price.

IMO 2018 would be the sweet spot for Nintendo, it gives Wii U 6 years on the market, New 3DS is seen as a slight evolution over 3DS, so 3 years on the market would be fine and then Nintendo launches with the new architecture to back the fusion home console.

All of these things just work so logically together, even if you take out the whole fusion handheld/home hybrid console aspect you still have the home console platform sharing similar architecture to what the next Sony and Microsoft platforms use and being different to the majority is what has caused the majority of issues with Nintendo getting support from 3rd party publishers.

A 2018 launch actually makes the most sense and it's Nintendo that actually needs to have the courage to compete, not Microsoft and especially not Sony that needs to worry about anything, especially when they can outsell Nintendo within a year of being on the market, when Nintendo has already had 2 years on them.
Nintendo needs to do whatever they can to get 3rd party support back, like it had in the SNES days.

In fact I can clearly see a strategy from Nintendo during the 4 next year to improve the way they are seen by the population.

Nintendo needs to release HQ software during the next 4 years and to appeal both their fans and the other gamers in order to prepare their next console. Concerning the idea of a big Nintendo echosystem i'm more on the go for :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3KCTOkHVhA

 

With a smartphone + a handheld + a home console It would be a new era for Nintendo gaming and the handheld would still be relevant since they could make the smartphone used to play one screen games and the handheld for two screen games such as ZOMBI U 

And I can't see Nintendo doing this before 2018



DanneSandin said:
JustBeingReal said:
Nintendo would never release their next gen console 4 years after the release of the last one, which is what you're suggesting if they release Nintendo Fusion or whatever it's going to be called at the end of 2016. As others have said New 3DS hasn't even launched in the west yet, a year and a few months shy of 2 years on the market was never going to be the lifespan of their most current handheld.

Most likely New 3DS was released to keep 3DS architecture on the market until it's time to launch this unified Handheld/Home console that has been rumored (assuming the rumors are true).

Another factor that disputes this assertion of a 2016 release is that some major Processor and Memory architectural changes will be occurring in 2016, which means that those developments need to filter down into manufacturing for costs to become reasonable to implement for the console market.
AMD will start to manufacture a new ARM CPU core (for the handheld) and they're also re-entering the multi-threaded CPU core market with their Zen line of processors.

There's also the advent of Universal Memory which will potentially go into production for the server market next year, but costs will be very high in the beginning, so a few years to reduce that would make all of this brand new technology much more affordable and that means Nintendo can still be the pioneers of all of this new tech in the home console and handheld markets.

By 2017-2018 cost of manufacturing will have come down.
Launching in 2016 is a mistake, makes no sense unless Nintendo wants to use archaic technology compared to what's going to be available to them a year or so later.

Another factor to consider is that Sony and Microsoft won't be launching until 2019 at the earliest, if Nintendo shares similar architecture to PS5 and XB2, as well as having comparable performance, which will be a huge improvement over PS4 and XB1 then they put themselves in a position to actually gain 3rd party support.

With fusion the handheld market may become a consideration to 3rd party publishers if porting to the handheld side is a none issue from a development point of view, because this unified API will just mean it's a part of building the Nintendo console version of those 3rd party games.

Nintendo may just hit the nail on it's head if they can wait and build Fusion as the first console platform to use Unified Memory, AMD Zen and their ARM K12 technology, along with the current GPU tech of the time.
Sony & Microsoft will use the technology a year later, so it makes sense for 3rd party to port across all platforms.


Nintendo would be fools to go with the older technology that would be available at production for launch in late 2016. 2016 makes no sense! Not from a launch schedule of past platforms point of view, on the handheld or home console markets and absolutely not when you look at the huge upgrades in technology that will potentially be available to any console platform holders a year later.

TBH keeping within a year of the launch schedules of Sony and Microsoft actually makes the most sense because it means costs will be that bit cheaper and Nintendo has always been about launching at an affordable price.

IMO 2018 would be the sweet spot for Nintendo, it gives Wii U 6 years on the market, New 3DS is seen as a slight evolution over 3DS, so 3 years on the market would be fine and then Nintendo launches with the new architecture to back the fusion home console.

All of these things just work so logically together, even if you take out the whole fusion handheld/home hybrid console aspect you still have the home console platform sharing similar architecture to what the next Sony and Microsoft platforms use and being different to the majority is what has caused the majority of issues with Nintendo getting support from 3rd party publishers.

A 2018 launch actually makes the most sense and it's Nintendo that actually needs to have the courage to compete, not Microsoft and especially not Sony that needs to worry about anything, especially when they can outsell Nintendo within a year of being on the market, when Nintendo has already had 2 years on them.
Nintendo needs to do whatever they can to get 3rd party support back, like it had in the SNES days.

This is a great post! But I see two problems with it.

1) It's NINTENDO we're talking about here; they make plenty of stupid decisions and don't care about appeasing the 3rd parties, so going with older technology is something they might do, however stupid.

2) PS5 and XB....2??... to launch in 2019, at the EARLIEST? I'm not quite sure about that. We're already hearing rumblings about the tech being weak. I think we might be heading into a 5 year gen, like in ye olden days. PS4 and XB1 isn't that giant leap that PS360 were. I think that the new HW will launch in 2018/19


Thanks :)

 

1) I'd agree if moving over to unified memory and advanced, but cheap (if production starts somewhere between July-August 2018) processing technology wasn't easily accessible to them.

It also benefits their own developers.

The past choices only became stupid in hindsight, like N64's cartridge tech, cartridges had been standard for multiple generations and CD had been very expensive prior to PS1 coming out.

Gamecube didn't really have any stupid hardware querks.

Wii was the market leader and it's tech appealed to the masses, outside of the normal gamer crowd, so I'd argue that it's not necessarily stupid what Nintendo has done, at least from a perspective of the kind of technology they've used in their platforms.

 

X86 becoming a standard within the console market hasn't happened until the 8th gen, it's likely one of the primary reasons why Wii U doesn't get 3rd party support. Nintendo actually wanted 3rd party support for the Wii U, which is apparent from Reggie's comments when Wii U was unveiled, maybe it was all marketing fluff and no actual action (which is one stupid moment for Nintendo I'll give you,  given that devs later said that Nintendo's support for their hardware to external studios was very much lacking) to make the 3rd party/Nintendo relationship a solid one, but from a business and importantly a financial point of view if Nintendo wants money, then they need to develop their next system to work for all of their potential developer base.

Wii U appeals to Indies and Indies are the future too, so even if Nintendo looks to appease both their own studios and indies then they need to use technology that makes everyone's lives easier, which means Universal Memory (because of the flexibility that will bring) and obviously the cheaper, but more advanced AMD tech will just be so much better compared to what is currently in use on basically every console and PC.

The benefits of waiting for this memory  and processing architecture to become a thing are glaringly obvious to anyone that even takes a slight interest in the market, Nintendo are apparently looking to hire talented advisors on this, like Mark Cerny type figures to build their next platform, so it just makes sense that they'd use this tech in their next box.

 

2) We don't hear these rumblings from anyone besides people that don't develop on PS4 and XB1. At PSX the developers were saying that there's a lot of potential for what can be done on PS4, XB1 is similar architecture so by extension it to has a measure of that same potential, there's quite a bit of life left in both boxes, with GPGPU, HSA and all of those features that can be tapped into, that just hasn't happened yet.

Both consoles have the legs to achieve some amazing things 4-5 years from now, optimization has barely started, right now the results we're seeing are from just filling up the resources of each platform, not using them efficiently and refining code to the upteenth degree.

2019 would mean a 6 year standard, which fits with when Sony has released in the past. Sony and Microsoft don't want to P*** Off all of their install base by releasing too soon. The tech in both consoles isn't weak for it's intended market.

 

I guess it's always possible that with the tech being available to the industry that Sony and Microsoft will bite earlier and release in say 2018, but I just don't buy they'd be willing to annoy their respective install bases. A 5 year generation isn't really necessary when we haven't yet seen what PS4 or XB1 can really do. It's only when technology has been fully taken advantage of and developers can't do anything new with either system that it becomes necessary to release the successor to your current platform.



burninmylight said:
Aeolus451 said:
zorg1000 said:

No its not that simple. $50 price cut along with a few adult games won't do much for Wii U. I find it very odd anyone actually believes such a simple strategy would turn things around.


Why not? How is it not that simple? Nintendo hasn't tried anything like that yet and they just keep pumping out the kid games but it's still selling like crap. Hmmm, I wonder why. It needs to show that it's taking adult gamers seriously then more adults would buy the console. How many marios can the consumer market take before it's utterly burnt out on it? It needs new IP's.

Yeah, Nintendo is all Mario and rainbows.

1 of the games hasnt even an international release yet and you cant import it thanks to BS region lock policies by nintendo



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padib said:

I understand your concerns, let me try to answer some, others I can't because I am not a computer engineer, but a software engineer.

1) The APIs will not differ. It will be one single API this is official from Iwata jan 2012.

2) The consolidated software library will free up development resources for Nintendo, and combine all the games together. This does two things: first it allows Nintendo to increase development focus. Instead of making two Mario Karts, they need only 1, same goes with the other examples you mentioned. It will also allow them to create games of a greater scale, possibly MMOs, or even new worlds, new IPs. The second advantage is that gamers get a better offering, basically needing only to buy one hardware to enjoy all of Nintendo's offerings. It is also likely that the price will be more affordable as games are more likely to follow gameboy-line pricing, which is the lowest common denominator.

3) I don't know how it will be achieved from a hardware standpoint, and what the limitations of ARM, custom ARM, and non-ARM might be. I don't know what the weakest link will be. However, I know two things: One, Nintendo is not interested in the graphics arms race. Two, Nintendo merged their R&D departments, basically doubling their R&D capacities. Nintendo is good with hardware so I'm optimistic they will pull it off.

@Cheebee. Reminds me of the Kinect and Move. Late to the party, but Kinect Adventures is still to this day Microsoft's highest-selling IP.


1) I'm a little skeptical here. They can be similar, but not equal. Mobile GPUs have less graphical functions than console/desktop ones. They must differ at least on this.

2) Publishers would hate to retail full console games by handheld pricing. This guys are putting DLCs and every monetization technic they can think in 60 bucks retail games. That's because they are needing more money. Handheld pricing would make these guys cry.

Making games that work in massively different hardware isn't an easy task. There is a full 7 to 10 years difference in power between home consoles and handheld/mobiles. It would be like assuming that every PS4 games could be easily ported to PS Vita and, worse than that, assume that this can be an automatic process and the SDK will make this happen for you. In the end, you would end tunning your game to the lesser denominator. It looks like a formula where they would end up with a next gen console that would be weaker than the previous gen offers.

4) The weakest link is always the handheld/mobile. It runs on a battery and usually don't use active cooling (and when it does, it's way less than a PC/console cooling system). We can have easily 500w, 700w consumed on PCs, while home consoles will vary between 100 to 250w, with hardware revisions usually making it less power-hungry. A tablet usually will do 10, 12w max. A mobile or handheld need to use 5 or 8w. The only way a 5w device can outperform a 250w one is when it uses much newer tech, probably 10 or 12 years ahead. 

I know they aren't on the graphics arm race, but what this proposes is that they would do their weakest home console in history. Wii was weak, but it at least outperformed the GC and the XBox easily. Wii U outperforms PS360 even more handly. A next gen console with this Fusion thing would probably end up less powerful than PS4/X1 and lining up agains PS5/Xwhathever. And while Wii  and Wii U had price advantages with their simpler hardware, the Fusion console would actually have an underused hardware. It would pack more expensive components that would be used badly.

For me, all of this just looks like a disaster: expensive, weak, unoptimized and wouldn't bring any advantage since even PS4 has more 3rd party support than 3DS and Wii U combined. My issue here is that both Nintendo consoles don't have 3rd party support and most games both have are very similar. The only one that would benefit would be Nintendo, that would just have to make one game. If they finally quit competing with MS and Sony and now just want a box for their 1st party games, then they could pull this off. It would be on par with their strategy of doing what they want and just tell 3rd parties to screw themselves.

I just think that strategy (their current one) is pretty bad. In the end of this gen, probably PS4 will outsell Wii U and 3DS combined numbers.  We can argue that their next portable will have even more problems competing against mobile phones. I think someone should make a mobile phone that was also a handheld and this someone should be Sony or Nintendo.



padib said:

Ladies and gents.

This week it has been confirmed by intelligent guess that the customer to AMD's custom chip is Nintendo. Also in the same week it's been confirmed that Nintendo is currently working on software for the next generation of systems, including a next-gen Mario.

Last year when Nintendo revealed their strategy for a unified software library and API for the OSes spanned accross their hardware lines, I declared an early victory for Nintendo in gen 9. People ridiculed the pre-emptive prediction and called me crazy, but the writing is already on the wall. In 2016, Nintendo will be releasing the successor to both the 3DS and WiiU, the first of a line of hardware that will play a shared library of games.

Nintendo will be able to focus all its development effort on that one single library. They will have a variety of devices that will all play the same content. Portables, tablets, home consoles, hybrids, you name it. This will be a huge gamechanger. The question that beckons is, how will Sony and MS react?

While Nintendo steals the home console show by basically translating its portable victory across all its devices, how will Sony and Microsoft be able to compete? Will they offer tablets, portables of their own, will they follow a unified library approach? How will they compete against Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario, Zelda, and a whole library of smash-hitters combined? The 3DS gave no chance to the Vita to survive, but 3rd parties in the West have always given advantage to non-Nintendo consoles. How will this play out?

Will Sony and MS continue to compete to attrition, with MS undoubtedly ready to rebound from its flagrant mistakes in gen 8 as Sony did from its failures in gen 7? Or will Nintendo force their hands to compete with them in their home court, at last?

Post your thoughts below.


Assuming it is Nintendo. For all we know, it could be Apple.

Also you assume that it will have greater or equal power. The WiiU came out years after the 360 and PS3 and had equal power so that isn't a good record. Plus, the game library is very poor for Nintendo. They have not had a new and successful IP for years, and the volume of Western based games has only crashed since the N64.

Your prediction is just garbage. You ignore power, price, library, market share etc and just ramble on about some victory you want to see, rather than trying to predict what will happen and why.

Sony and MS would only respond with a price cut if they think this "possibly" new Nintendo system will be competition and comes out at a competitive price.



Nostalpouet said:
JustBeingReal said:
Nintendo would never release their next gen console 4 years after the release of the last one, which is what you're suggesting if they release Nintendo Fusion or whatever it's going to be called at the end of 2016. As others have said New 3DS hasn't even launched in the west yet, a year and a few months shy of 2 years on the market was never going to be the lifespan of their most current handheld.

Most likely New 3DS was released to keep 3DS architecture on the market until it's time to launch this unified Handheld/Home console that has been rumored (assuming the rumors are true).

Another factor that disputes this assertion of a 2016 release is that some major Processor and Memory architectural changes will be occurring in 2016, which means that those developments need to filter down into manufacturing for costs to become reasonable to implement for the console market.
AMD will start to manufacture a new ARM CPU core (for the handheld) and they're also re-entering the multi-threaded CPU core market with their Zen line of processors.

There's also the advent of Universal Memory which will potentially go into production for the server market next year, but costs will be very high in the beginning, so a few years to reduce that would make all of this brand new technology much more affordable and that means Nintendo can still be the pioneers of all of this new tech in the home console and handheld markets.

By 2017-2018 cost of manufacturing will have come down.
Launching in 2016 is a mistake, makes no sense unless Nintendo wants to use archaic technology compared to what's going to be available to them a year or so later.

Another factor to consider is that Sony and Microsoft won't be launching until 2019 at the earliest, if Nintendo shares similar architecture to PS5 and XB2, as well as having comparable performance, which will be a huge improvement over PS4 and XB1 then they put themselves in a position to actually gain 3rd party support.

With fusion the handheld market may become a consideration to 3rd party publishers if porting to the handheld side is a none issue from a development point of view, because this unified API will just mean it's a part of building the Nintendo console version of those 3rd party games.

Nintendo may just hit the nail on it's head if they can wait and build Fusion as the first console platform to use Unified Memory, AMD Zen and their ARM K12 technology, along with the current GPU tech of the time.
Sony & Microsoft will use the technology a year later, so it makes sense for 3rd party to port across all platforms.


Nintendo would be fools to go with the older technology that would be available at production for launch in late 2016. 2016 makes no sense! Not from a launch schedule of past platforms point of view, on the handheld or home console markets and absolutely not when you look at the huge upgrades in technology that will potentially be available to any console platform holders a year later.

TBH keeping within a year of the launch schedules of Sony and Microsoft actually makes the most sense because it means costs will be that bit cheaper and Nintendo has always been about launching at an affordable price.

IMO 2018 would be the sweet spot for Nintendo, it gives Wii U 6 years on the market, New 3DS is seen as a slight evolution over 3DS, so 3 years on the market would be fine and then Nintendo launches with the new architecture to back the fusion home console.

All of these things just work so logically together, even if you take out the whole fusion handheld/home hybrid console aspect you still have the home console platform sharing similar architecture to what the next Sony and Microsoft platforms use and being different to the majority is what has caused the majority of issues with Nintendo getting support from 3rd party publishers.

A 2018 launch actually makes the most sense and it's Nintendo that actually needs to have the courage to compete, not Microsoft and especially not Sony that needs to worry about anything, especially when they can outsell Nintendo within a year of being on the market, when Nintendo has already had 2 years on them.
Nintendo needs to do whatever they can to get 3rd party support back, like it had in the SNES days.

In fact I can clearly see a strategy from Nintendo during the 4 next year to improve the way they are seen by the population.

Nintendo needs to release HQ software during the next 4 years and to appeal both their fans and the other gamers in order to prepare their next console. Concerning the idea of a big Nintendo echosystem i'm more on the go for :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3KCTOkHVhA

 

With a smartphone + a handheld + a home console It would be a new era for Nintendo gaming and the handheld would still be relevant since they could make the smartphone used to play one screen games and the handheld for two screen games such as ZOMBI U 

And I can't see Nintendo doing this before 2018


Personally I think Nintendo needs to address the whole issues of their software line-up not appealing to the market that buys 3rd party games, they can do this by expanding their own exclusive library of games to increase the diversity of their line-up of games.

They need new IPs that fit in with a library of 3rd party content and that will drive gamers that buy 3rd party towards Nintendo's system.

 

I agree, at least I hope Nintendo takes the approach of releasing more than just the kinds of games they're known for already. The likes of Splatoon, Devil's Third and Bayonetta are a good start, but they need to go further than that. IMO they need to focus on more regular releases of games like Wave Race, Pilot Wings, expand Metroid to be their go to shooter, build a quality online infrastructure (because that's so important to the 3rd party crowd).

Nintendo seems to lack in the shooter genre, they should also release a big open world 3D Pokemon game, like a JRPG.

They miss out on games like Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts, so make their own versions of those games, with a Nintendo spin on it, like they could make a Nintendo Universe title, with a new lead character who goes on an adventure with all of the major Nintendo characters.

Buy some quality Indie studios and expand them to fill out their line-up.

 

Obviously having the proposed Universal API to streamline and combine development of both home and handheld (or mobile) into one will give them back more resources to release more games, so we just may see a bigger number of games coming from Nintendo and releasing on their platforms.

Laying the groundwork of creating new IPs for Wii U and New 3DS will be a great start, hopefully that happens.



Nintendo will still be without third party support, not everyone want to play animal crossing and pokemon you know.



Having one game library across all hardware sounds dangerously similar to Sony's port-heavy "console on the go" strategy with their handhelds, and would make it far harder to convince people to buy more than one Nintendo device. Indeed, judging by how the WiiU has been selling compared to it's competition, it seems that even offering unique software built around different devices isn't enough to mitigate that issue. People outside Nintendo's core fanbase seem more than happy enough to just go to the 3DS for their Nintendo games and leave it at that.

I really don't think this strategy is the slam dunk you make it out to be. To me, it seems more to be a necessity borne out of limited resources/manpower--the strategy they've come up with to avoid the constant delays that plagued the WiiU in it's first year. Nor would it mitigate the issue of Nintendo missing out on key third-party software, as several people have pointed out.



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