By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - Nov 3 - Nov 9

uran10 said:

Wii U has a bundle tomorrow, so yea, The week before a bunle is always the lowest week. Huge ass boost next media create.

You're doing yourself a disservice by hyping up something that will provide a small boost.

Also, no Famitsu HW in the OP.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

Around the Network
the_dengle said:

But reiterating weekly that the Vita isn't putting up numbers anywhere near the PSP is boring, no one does it anymore because it's just stating the obvious. Comparing the 3DS to the DS is equally boring and obvious -- and even then, what I'm seeing are people comparing the 3DS YOY sales more than that, which is nonsensical because of course the 3DS is down YOY. I was just illustrating that typically consoles peak in their third year and then decline steadily from there, and that even the mighty DS was not an exception to this trend.


I typed a massive reply to you that was sadly lost due to my browser crashing, but here's a (shortened, but still long) version of my take on why PSP vs. Vita has less relevance than 3DS vs. DS does.

Think about what games Vita carried over from PSP (which had made that console a success).  Monster Hunter?  Metal Gear?  Square Enix stuff?  Western stuff with Japanese appeal?

Then consider the pieces of PSP support which did make it across - what form are they coming in?  Are they exclusive, or are they multi-plats (God Eater) & ports of older games (Persona)?

Do the same thing for 3DS vs. DS.  Did all the strong Nintendo IP's make it across?  Animal Crossing?  Mario?  Pokemon?  Are the Dragon Quest ports still there?  Did the relevant third party stuff like Layton and Ace Attorney continue?

And again, are these games being made exclusive to the 3DS, or are they appearing elsewhere?

Then consider whether anything was gained in the move across?  Did any mega PSP franchises make the jump across?  Any never-before-on-a-handheld survival horror IP's?  Any kid-friendly runaway smash hits?

 

Of course, the picture isn't as black and white as this - 3DS lost a hell of a lot of stuff too (i.e. Brain Training.  Not in terms of the actual game, since it's on 3DS, but apparently the audience for it).  But the point is (and it's the point I raised in my earlier post too) - 3DS has had so much going for it since launch.  In 4 years since launch it's received nearly every relevant IP in Japan in some form - with one just having arrived in September another new one on the way in December.  Vita has not had a similar situation at all, and as such I find it a bit absurd to compare.

And this comes down to what Nintendo do for their handheld compared to what Sony have done, absolutely, but that shouldn't come into the picture when you're comparing what is actually there and what effect that should be having on sales, in my opinion.



Shadow1980 said:
At least the New 3DS seems to be holding strong, with a bump of nearly 10k from week 44's numbers despite no major titles. 


Was counted in this week of tracking.



Kresnik said:
the_dengle said:

But reiterating weekly that the Vita isn't putting up numbers anywhere near the PSP is boring, no one does it anymore because it's just stating the obvious. Comparing the 3DS to the DS is equally boring and obvious -- and even then, what I'm seeing are people comparing the 3DS YOY sales more than that, which is nonsensical because of course the 3DS is down YOY. I was just illustrating that typically consoles peak in their third year and then decline steadily from there, and that even the mighty DS was not an exception to this trend.


I typed a massive reply to you that was sadly lost due to my browser crashing, but here's a (shortened, but still long) version of my take on why PSP vs. Vita has less relevance than 3DS vs. DS does.

Think about what games Vita carried over from PSP (which had made that console a success).  Monster Hunter?  Metal Gear?  Square Enix stuff?  Western stuff with Japanese appeal?

Then consider the pieces of PSP support which did make it across - what form are they coming in?  Are they exclusive, or are they multi-plats (God Eater) & ports of older games (Persona)?

Do the same thing for 3DS vs. DS.  Did all the strong Nintendo IP's make it across?  Animal Crossing?  Mario?  Pokemon?  Are the Dragon Quest ports still there?  Did the relevant third party stuff like Layton and Ace Attorney continue?

And again, are these games being made exclusive to the 3DS, or are they appearing elsewhere?

Then consider whether anything was gained in the move across?  Did any mega PSP franchises make the jump across?  Any never-before-on-a-handheld survival horror IP's?  Any kid-friendly runaway smash hits?

 

Of course, the picture isn't as black and white as this - 3DS lost a hell of a lot of stuff too (i.e. Brain Training.  Not in terms of the actual game, since it's on 3DS, but apparently the audience for it).  But the point is (and it's the point I raised in my earlier post too) - 3DS has had so much going for it since launch.  In 4 years since launch it's received nearly every relevant IP in Japan in some form - with one just having arrived in September another new one on the way in December.  Vita has not had a similar situation at all, and as such I find it a bit absurd to compare.

And this comes down to what Nintendo do for their handheld compared to what Sony have done, absolutely, but that shouldn't come into the picture when you're comparing what is actually there and what effect that should be having on sales, in my opinion.

Sorry about your browser. :P

There's a big difference between Mario on DS and Mario on 3DS, between Layton on DS and on 3DS. It's the difference between "New" and "2". Sequels to DS games will not help distinguish the 3DS from its predecessor; what it needed all along were new games. Not necessarily entirely new games -- 3D Land and Link Between Worlds are good examples of this being applied to existing IP.

And even still, people have lost sight of just how well the 3DS has sold in Japan. Expecting it to match or beat the DS was unreasonable from the outset. In the end it's probably going to wind up in the neighborhood of the PS2's sales, beaten only by the DS and the GameBoy (which includes GBC and over 10 years of uncontested sales).



the_dengle said:
 

Because comparing anything to the international phenomenon that was the DS is just looking for something to be disappointed in. And it's obvious that the "problem handheld" in Japan is not the one on its way to at least 20 million LT sales.

But reiterating weekly that the Vita isn't putting up numbers anywhere near the PSP is boring, no one does it anymore because it's just stating the obvious. Comparing the 3DS to the DS is equally boring and obvious -- and even then, what I'm seeing are people comparing the 3DS YOY sales more than that, which is nonsensical because of course the 3DS is down YOY. I was just illustrating that typically consoles peak in their third year and then decline steadily from there, and that even the mighty DS was not an exception to this trend.

Japanese sales threads are also appropriate places for discussing the massive decline of home consoles sales since last gen, but there's more optimism in this thread for the PS4 and Wii U than either of those consoles deserve.

 

Bolded; are you sure about that? That's not what the data shows.

DS peaked in its fourth full calendar year, PSP peaked in its fourth full calendar year, Xbox 360 peaked in its sixth full calendar year and the PS3 peaked in its fifth full calendar year. The 3DS also had a price cut that amounted to a whooping and record breaking ~30%+ of the retail launch price only months after release and has already had 3 hardware revisions in the same time the PS3 had one and Xbox 360 none, DS had one revision and the PSP also had one (counting the same space of time the 3DS has been out thus far, of course).

From where I'm sitting, the 3DS is starting to look more and more like an anomaly that goes against sales and market trends and history and the fact that it has the market almost entirely to itself and the massive amounts of behemoth, system selling software it has received just makes everything worse and shows us how dire the situation is for the dedicated handheld, despite your insistence that everything is okay and that it is silly to compare to the DS. Is it silly to compare the PS4 to the Wii, or the PS2? Plenty of people doing that, was it silly to compare the Wii to the PS2? PS3 to PS2? PS4 to PS3? The list goes on, I don't understand how you're thinking, this whole "it is unfair to compare the Wii U and 3DS to the Wii and DS because they were phenomenons" is strange and lacks any kind of logic and the fact that the changes are as massive as they are is a testament to the point I'm making here.

Also; speaking of trends, wanna see approximations of yoy growth of the bunch? Okay, since you asked so nicely (yes, some had a staggered launch but the 3DS launched in March and had a ridiculous price drop after only a few monhts).

3DS:

First full CY (March launch but crazy price cut of around ~30%+ should easily offset 2/3 months of no sales) saw about 12.5 million sales.

First full CY showed 8% growth yoy

Second full CY showed 7% growth yoy and was the peak year

 

DS:

Second full CY (launch comparison is useless since it was available only in Japan and NA and launched during the holidays) showed ~88% growth yoy.

Third full CY showed 41% growth yoy (unfair comparison to 3DS? It was launched in Europe and Aus at the same time of the year as the 3DS debuted).

Fourth full CY showed about 0.5% growth yoy and was the peak year.

 

PSP:

First full CY saw March NA launch and Sept Europe launch, sold about 9.6 million that year.

Second full CY saw practically flat yoy curve despite the staggered launch, appears that consoles had more kick down the line than the 3DS, no?

Third full CY saw yoy growth in the 35% region.

Fourth full CY saw about 10% growth yoy and was the peak year.

 

Xbox 360:

First full CY saw about 6.8 million sales with no competition from peer consoles until the holidays.

Second full CY saw yoy growth around 16% in the face of fierce competition.

Third full CY showed yoy growth of around 38%.

Fourth full CY showed yoy decline of about 6%.

Fifth full CY showed yoy growth in the ~31% region and way above third CY.

Sixth year saw a small increase of around 2% yoy and was the peak year.

 

PS3:

First full CY saw about 7.95 million sales, staggered launch with Europe and Aus getting it in March.

Second full CY showed yoy growth around 30%.

Third full CY showed yoy growth of about 27%.

Fourth fyll CY showed yoy growth of around 4%.

Fifth full Cy showed yoy growth around 4.5% and was the peak year.

 

What does any of this have to do with Japan sales? Not much, but if you want to tell others to stop saying or doing certain things, I would like you to stop saying and doing certain things; stop pretending that there is anything normal with the 3DS' sales situation, there really isn't and don't go around claiming that comparisons are meaningless unless you have a better metric to use to this end.




Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Mummelmann said:
 

Bolded; are you sure about that? That's not what the data shows.

(...)

What does any of this have to do with Japan sales? Not much, but if you want to tell others to stop saying or doing certain things, I would like you to stop saying and doing certain things; stop pretending that there is anything normal with the 3DS' sales situation, there really isn't and don't go around claiming that comparisons are meaningless unless you have a better metric to use to this end.

Hint: If you want to disprove somebody's claim, you have to use numbers that are relevant to the discussion at hand. Why did you even post all those worldwide numbers when your closing paragraph concedes that they are basically meaningless?

Take a step back and look at this thread again. Somehow this has turned into a "3DS is doing the worst out of the bunch" thing while concerns should be really directed at every system but the 3DS.


I believe that I have referred to Japan as a "wasteland for home consoles" for the 8th gen is some form or other in almost every Media Create thread this fall, the point of posting global numbers is that some are seeing the 3DS as a console that has a shot at having a long and healthy life because it has shown some decent sales in one region, and this is clearly not the case.

It was also to point out that he was wrong in stating that the 3DS is just following normal market movements and sales patterns. Yes; the main discussion should revolve around the marshes that home consoles are stuck in but touting the 3DS as the excpetion to the rule is just silly, all things considered. Does anyone think the PS4 couldn't get a large but short spike with tremendous software and hardware revisions? Short term boosts show us nothing about longevity and using holiday figures in the best region after a hardware revision and several pieces of massively popular software for said region in the fresh channel is an incredibly short-sighted and illogical metric for the future of a console.
This is also partly due to the massive opposition I faced when I suggested this decline in handheld consoles a couple of years ago; the consensus seemed to be that I was full of it.

I have never suggested that the "3DS is doing the worst of the bunch", it is rather a case of; "the 3DS gets a spike in sales and people use it to prove that everything is a-okay". Of course the others are doing worse; I've even written in this very thread that it is a sad state of affairs when the PS4 is doubling the Wii U and still doing really poorly and way below PS3 level sales.

PS: As a post to show that the 3DS does not follow sales norms of the past decade; using global numbers is perfectly fine, using Japan only tells only part of the story, especially during a temporary boost like we're seeing now. Or do you also think that the best measure for the Wii U's global future was how it did in Japan without competition, for instance?

Edit;

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6789488 Here I'm even saying that the 3DS is holding very well, which is true, all things considered.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6769207 Clearly just beating up the 3DS over the home consoles.



RolStoppable said:
Mummelmann said:

(...)

PS: As a post to show that the 3DS does not follow sales norms of the past decade; using global numbers is perfectly fine, using Japan only tells only part of the story, especially during a temporary boost like we're seeing now. Or do you also think that the best measure for the Wii U's global future was how it did in Japan without competition, for instance?

I am not interested in your personal history, so I removed that part of your post.

Using global numbers is not fine to draw conclusions for the Japanese market (which is the only thing the_dengle was talking about), because different regions differ in their historical sales patterns. Most notably Europe and the rest of the world have much longer tails for console sales than Japan and America. Your concluding question is what you have to ask yourself, because you are the person who made a flawed comparison.

You seem to think that I have contributed into making the topic into "3DS is doing the worst out of the bunch" and then you remove the bits disproving that on my part because you're "not interested", then why make that point to begin with?

It seems like you're just out to make me look silly in some way or other regardless.

User A says console A is doing fine and is following market trends and historic sales patterns, I use global figures to show that this is not so in the big picture. Besides; where does it say that he's talking about Japan only as a response?

"Because comparing anything to the international phenomenon that was the DS is just looking for something to be disappointed in. And it's obvious that the "problem handheld" in Japan is not the one on its way to at least 20 million LT sales."

"Comparing anything to the international phenomenon" is pretty far from "Japanese phenomenon only" "I was just illustrating that typically consoles peak in their third year and then decline steadily from there, and that even the mighty DS was not an exception to this trend." where does that it applies only to Japan? There is no indication that he's isolating the 3DS to only Japan in his claims that it is following normal sales patterns, even though this is a Japanese sales thread. Why not let him answer himself instead of doing it for him?

Besides; the DS did not show the same sales pattern as the 3DS in Japan either.



Why MS released XOne in Japan ?  It's basicly dead.  Maybe it should be discontinued if it continues like this ?



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

Nate4Drake said:

Why MS released XOne in Japan ?  It's basicly dead.  Maybe it should be discontinued if it continues like this ?


Yeah, spending any kind of money on the Xbox project in Japan seems futile and wasted; they'd be better off going balls to the wall in the US and UK and trying to improve in Europe as a whole. Japan will be almost completely irrelevant for Sony and Nintendo as well with their home consoles in the 8th gen.



Mummelmann said:

DS peaked in its fourth full calendar year

Let me stop you right there. As Rol has already mentioned, my point is that making disparaging comments about 3DS sales in Japanese sales threads is downright silly (borderline off-topic, even) and such comments would be much more appropriate in global or Western sales threads. If you and others want to talk about how dismal the 3DS's sales have been in America and Europe in other threads, I will be unhappy to agree with you (but will do so anyway). But here in the Media Create threads, seeing people single out the 3DS is laughable.