XB1 is doing horribly, much worse than I expected
Also, the time has come for PS4 to outsell Vita in Japan, also Vita under 10k, so safe to say it is dead everywhere now?
| Mummelmann said: Besides; where does it say that he's talking about Japan only as a response? (1) "Because comparing anything to the international phenomenon that was the DS is just looking for something to be disappointed in. And it's obvious that the "problem handheld" in Japan is not the one on its way to at least 20 million LT sales." "Comparing anything to the international phenomenon" is pretty far from "Japanese phenomenon only" "I was just illustrating that typically consoles peak in their third year and then decline steadily from there, and that even the mighty DS was not an exception to this trend." where does that it applies only to Japan? There is no indication that he's isolating the 3DS to only Japan in his claims that it is following normal sales patterns, even though this is a Japanese sales thread. Why not let him answer himself instead of doing it for him? |
With (1) I was expressing an opinion that comparisons with the DS are unfounded for any console in any region. It's simply in a league of its own in most cases, in other cases it shares its league with a single other console (which is itself in a league of its own in many cases). The sentence immediately following that one re-established Japan as the focal point of the conversation, but that really doesn't matter. You can overlook that if you want. Because the bolded statement refers specifically to a previous post I had made -- this one:
| the_dengle said: Now it is time for my friendly, weekly reminder that the DS was down massively YOY in 2008, despite the launch of the DSi. |
This statement is indisputably referring exclusively to Japanese sales... the DSi didn't launch in the West until 2009.
Mummelmann said:
1: How will it look around this time next year, not to mention two years? 2: Is it a good thing that handhelds are so reliant on the Japanese market when we know they're shifting more towards mobile than anyone else? Not to mention countless revisions. In global sales, the 3DS is not showing impressive numbers, not if you compare it to the PS4, Wii or least of all; the DS. Which in itself should be raising eyebrows since the 3DS is practically without competition whereas the DS beat the successful PSP that has sold in excess of 80 million and even did great in Japan. There is simply no denying that dedicated handhelds are in serious trouble in the very near future (I believe I said that the market would collapse within 3-5 years, back in 2012) and that is a legitimate issue to discuss. The sales are not in any way low, but relatively speaking; they are actually "low". |
People keep talking about the 3DS sales when in reality all dedicated gaming devices in Japan are sinking. Home consoles are doing terrible - even worse than handhelds - most people there simply don´t care about them anymore. The matter of low 3DS sales is not just a simple matter of the product itself, but of the japanese videogame market as a whole.
Considering the situation, I´d say that home consoles will probably die first in Japan. 3DS is still doing very well compared to every other device available in that market.
As for the global market, I´d not try to make predictions. This generation is selling worse than the last in every front (home consoles and handhelds combined) - http://www.vgchartz.com/article/252144/7th-gen-vs-8th-gen-aligned-sales-comparison-october-2014-update/ - obviously, Nintendo is the big loser with the flock of casuals to phones/tablets , but Sony´s Vita is also in deep deep trouble worldwide and the company currently is in a troubling financial situation despite the huge PS4 success.
Kresnik said:
Think about what games Vita carried over from PSP (which had made that console a success). Monster Hunter? Metal Gear? Square Enix stuff? Western stuff with Japanese appeal? Then consider the pieces of PSP support which did make it across - what form are they coming in? Are they exclusive, or are they multi-plats (God Eater) & ports of older games (Persona)? Do the same thing for 3DS vs. DS. Did all the strong Nintendo IP's make it across? Animal Crossing? Mario? Pokemon? Are the Dragon Quest ports still there? Did the relevant third party stuff like Layton and Ace Attorney continue? And again, are these games being made exclusive to the 3DS, or are they appearing elsewhere? Then consider whether anything was gained in the move across? Did any mega PSP franchises make the jump across? Any never-before-on-a-handheld survival horror IP's? Any kid-friendly runaway smash hits?
Of course, the picture isn't as black and white as this - 3DS lost a hell of a lot of stuff too (i.e. Brain Training. Not in terms of the actual game, since it's on 3DS, but apparently the audience for it). But the point is (and it's the point I raised in my earlier post too) - 3DS has had so much going for it since launch. In 4 years since launch it's received nearly every relevant IP in Japan in some form - with one just having arrived in September another new one on the way in December. Vita has not had a similar situation at all, and as such I find it a bit absurd to compare. And this comes down to what Nintendo do for their handheld compared to what Sony have done, absolutely, but that shouldn't come into the picture when you're comparing what is actually there and what effect that should be having on sales, in my opinion. |
You are mixing up cause and outcome. 3DS didn't had the games from the start. It got them with solid sales. Companies tested the sales, before they broughjt over the games you name: Capcom had RE:Mercenaries before Revelations. Square Enix had Heroes of Ruins. Capcom brought MH4 not before they tested with MH3G. And so on. These tests also happened for the Vita. Persona 4G, AC:Liberation and so on. After that the decision came to avoid Vita.
Well, it is also OK to compare with the DS. The discussion is because of a YoY drop of the 3DS - in it's fourth year. The DS dropped 14% in 2007 in Japan. Sure, absolute numbers are smaller for 3DS than for DS. Still, DS only managed 65% market share, while 3DS has over 80% of a smaller market. So why people ere are picking on shrinking YoY-numbers without context? Should I point out shrinking YoY-numbers of PS4 in it's fourth year (or do you want to bet the PS4 will peak after it's third year)? It is pretty normal, that after such a time on market a saturation is reached. 3DS will not reach 100M, I think nobody doubts that. So saying it got games is not enough. Other platforms also got games and didn't even rech 3DS numbers.
| Mummelmann said: I believe that I have referred to Japan as a "wasteland for home consoles" for the 8th gen is some form or other in almost every Media Create thread this fall, the point of posting global numbers is that some are seeing the 3DS as a console that has a shot at having a long and healthy life because it has shown some decent sales in one region, and this is clearly not the case. |
That point would be Ok if the discussion started about a post claiming the 3DS would be the best console (or handheld) ever, or a post saying it does bad worldwide. but that didn't happen. The discussion started about a post pointing out a YoY-decline without context. The 3DS is in it's fourth year, such a decline isn't a big surprise. Yes, with a remodel it is sometimes possible to do better (software on the other hand sell to the existing base later in the life of a platform, and Monster Hunter specifically had already two earlier versions on this hardware). Yes, you gave some examples of hardware that peaked later. Do you think these examples are a rule and PS4 will in the fourth year or later? Would you bet on it?
I think you picked up a discussion started by people that stayed silent after their initial assessment of YoY-losses. If you want this is post-and-run. I think you discuss something most here are agreeing with, misunderstanding the defense against the earlier contextless YoY-claims as bold posts that try to hype up 3DS over what it really is. We all know it doesn't doing as hot as the DS. Still it does well (in Japan).
RolStoppable said:
Calm down, Villager. Calm down. A sales rate of at or below 10k weekly didn't stop third parties from greenlighting Vita games before, so it's unlikely that it will do so now. Therefore the system will continue to see sales bumps. |
Well, to take the defense for Vita: there indeed was another persona-game greenlighted for Vita - a dancing game and nothing more. Even I think it is unfair, looking at the pretty good numbers for Persona 4 Golden.
| Mnementh said:
You are mixing up cause and outcome. 3DS didn't had the games from the start. It got them with solid sales. Companies tested the sales, before they broughjt over the games you name: Capcom had RE:Mercenaries before Revelations. Square Enix had Heroes of Ruins. Capcom brought MH4 not before they tested with MH3G. And so on. These tests also happened for the Vita. Persona 4G, AC:Liberation and so on. After that the decision came to avoid Vita. |
Er... did you think about this before you posted it?
You're telling me that Capcom developed Revelations for the 3DS, from the ground up, in less than 6 months due to the good sales of Mercenaries (Mercenaries release date - June 2011; Revelations release date - January 2012)
You're telling me that due to the sales of Heroes of Ruin, which released in June 2012, prompted them to release Kingdom Hearts 3D 3 months earlier in March 2012? And Theatrhythm 4 months earlier in February 2012?
Same deal with Monster Hunter - 4 was announced 2 months before 3G even released.
These games were planned long before any "test" games released.
Aside from that, the point I was making wasn't about how support was achieved. It was about what support was there and how that support should've affected sales.
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