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the_dengle on 12 November 2014
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Kresnik said:
the_dengle said:

But reiterating weekly that the Vita isn't putting up numbers anywhere near the PSP is boring, no one does it anymore because it's just stating the obvious. Comparing the 3DS to the DS is equally boring and obvious -- and even then, what I'm seeing are people comparing the 3DS YOY sales more than that, which is nonsensical because of course the 3DS is down YOY. I was just illustrating that typically consoles peak in their third year and then decline steadily from there, and that even the mighty DS was not an exception to this trend.


I typed a massive reply to you that was sadly lost due to my browser crashing, but here's a (shortened, but still long) version of my take on why PSP vs. Vita has less relevance than 3DS vs. DS does.

Think about what games Vita carried over from PSP (which had made that console a success).  Monster Hunter?  Metal Gear?  Square Enix stuff?  Western stuff with Japanese appeal?

Then consider the pieces of PSP support which did make it across - what form are they coming in?  Are they exclusive, or are they multi-plats (God Eater) & ports of older games (Persona)?

Do the same thing for 3DS vs. DS.  Did all the strong Nintendo IP's make it across?  Animal Crossing?  Mario?  Pokemon?  Are the Dragon Quest ports still there?  Did the relevant third party stuff like Layton and Ace Attorney continue?

And again, are these games being made exclusive to the 3DS, or are they appearing elsewhere?

Then consider whether anything was gained in the move across?  Did any mega PSP franchises make the jump across?  Any never-before-on-a-handheld survival horror IP's?  Any kid-friendly runaway smash hits?

 

Of course, the picture isn't as black and white as this - 3DS lost a hell of a lot of stuff too (i.e. Brain Training.  Not in terms of the actual game, since it's on 3DS, but apparently the audience for it).  But the point is (and it's the point I raised in my earlier post too) - 3DS has had so much going for it since launch.  In 4 years since launch it's received nearly every relevant IP in Japan in some form - with one just having arrived in September another new one on the way in December.  Vita has not had a similar situation at all, and as such I find it a bit absurd to compare.

And this comes down to what Nintendo do for their handheld compared to what Sony have done, absolutely, but that shouldn't come into the picture when you're comparing what is actually there and what effect that should be having on sales, in my opinion.

Sorry about your browser. :P

There's a big difference between Mario on DS and Mario on 3DS, between Layton on DS and on 3DS. It's the difference between "New" and "2". Sequels to DS games will not help distinguish the 3DS from its predecessor; what it needed all along were new games. Not necessarily entirely new games -- 3D Land and Link Between Worlds are good examples of this being applied to existing IP.

And even still, people have lost sight of just how well the 3DS has sold in Japan. Expecting it to match or beat the DS was unreasonable from the outset. In the end it's probably going to wind up in the neighborhood of the PS2's sales, beaten only by the DS and the GameBoy (which includes GBC and over 10 years of uncontested sales).