It's possible but I sure as hell wouldn't put money on it.
Will Wii U make 10M by 1 Jan 2015 | |||
| Yes | 168 | 45.90% | |
| No | 197 | 53.83% | |
| Total: | 365 | ||
It's possible but I sure as hell wouldn't put money on it.
It very well could, it would nice to get a single hardware prediction for 2014 right... 
Another 2.7 million in two months is a tall order though and would require an unusal ratio of Q4/Q1-Q3 sales, Q4 is ususally around 50-55% of the total CY sales as a rule of thumb. It's not impossible though, it all depends on November and the US, since Smash releases the week before Black Friday in the US; it should help the Wii U get two solid weeks of sales at least and should drive total numbers up a great deal, it is not out of the question that November alone will amount to about 30-33% of the total CY sales before Dec 1st and it is also possible that November and December will be practically the same for the Wii U, November might even be bigger, depending on Black Friday.
The Wii U sold around 1.6 million in November/December last year, it would need and increase of about 70% yoy to beat that and I'm not convinced that Smash Bros is big enough for that, especially since this is a considerably smaller franchise in Europe and Japan will be dominated by the 3DS version for sure. It's not like there was nothing driving holiday sales last year with massive advertising, bunch of bundles, recent price cut and Super Mario 3D World.
I think it will fall just short of 10 million, landing at 9.7-9.8, with the possibility of adjustments over new year's. Let's also not forget that the Wii U is likely overtracked by at least 100k or slightly more.
Nothing is impossible, but 9 looks more likely.
Wii U will sell 2M only on December... so, will happen.
| Kerotan said: 9-9.5M IMO. Smash boost will be less than MK8 and will come too late in the year. The holidays will give it a nice boost but not enough. If it doesn't break 10M heading into year 3 or is it 4? It's a sad state of affairs. Next year I expect the Wii U to drop a little but the 3DS to drop by a good amount. |
Kerotan...smash bros releases in three consecutive weeks(it s not late,the time is perfect)...black friday combines with european release and after that it releases in japan,which will have get a mario kart 8 bunlde!its not only smash bros...Mario kart 8 is having a retro-active boost ;) smash bros u wiil be fostered by mario kart 8 prescense...As for 3ds,next year new 3ds/xl will have been released!lets hope,smash to make wii u to be up 100% yoy up for four months or at least the two holidays months like mario kart 8 for three(May,July,August), excluding june,which was wii u fourth month with yoy up because of mk8 ,but a 300% yoy up ...which isn t not possible for smash...or is it? :P(but honestly i wish four,i.e Jan feb combined with the new games that wii u will have get and will continue to get to retain a new decent baseline and not having the drought that it had after mario kart 8,althought didn t fall dramatically it hold really well 40k+ not the awful 20k+ in 2013) in 2013 the week ending 2th nov wii u got a 1323% up with wii party u bundle and the game in japan...hoho:P in this year same week usa and europe is 11k...up,but japan 30k down...however it gets a big amount of mario kart 8 bundles on 13th of November:P ;)
Possible? Yes. Probable? No.
Going by VGC numbers, it would need to sell in excess of 2.7 million units over 8 weeks. I don't think it'll sell quite that well, maybe missing out by a couple of hundred K.
That said, the big rise in sales should have started last week, so we'll start to get an idea of how dramatic the holiday sales will be over the next week or so (looking forward to seeing what Media Create looks like today).
My estimate for year end is between 9.5 and 9.8 million. 2 Million in sales should be a shoe in, and I think it'll probably end up closer to 2.5.
Given there's generally a bit of a January tail to the holiday sales I think it'll hit 10 million by the end of January.
| ToxicJosh said: Possible? Yes. Probable? No. Going by VGC numbers, it would need to sell in excess of 2.7 million units over 8 weeks. I don't think it'll sell quite that well, maybe missing out by a couple of hundred K. That said, the big rise in sales should have started last week, so we'll start to get an idea of how dramatic the holiday sales will be over the next week or so (looking forward to seeing what Media Create looks like today). My estimate for year end is between 9.5 and 9.8 million. 2 Million in sales should be a shoe in, and I think it'll probably end up closer to 2.5. Given there's generally a bit of a January tail to the holiday sales I think it'll hit 10 million by the end of January. |
Ther are still people who don t know that some months have 5 weeks?...Four in November and five in December dear=nine:P Now modify you prediction:P
Hope so, looks like a long shot though. Black Friday is key for the Wii U imo. Smash on BF should help it massively.
tak13 said:
Ther are still people who don t know that some months have 5 weeks?...Four in November and five in December dear=nine:P Now modify you prediction:P |
8 weeks and 3 days, I rounded down when counting weeks.
My prediction stands :-p