Wii U 10 Million by 1 Jan 2015?

[Mummelmann]

It very well could, it would nice to get a single hardware prediction for 2014 right...

Another 2.7 million in two months is a tall order though and would require an unusal ratio of Q4/Q1-Q3 sales, Q4 is ususally around 50-55% of the total CY sales as a rule of thumb. It's not impossible though, it all depends on November and the US, since Smash releases the week before Black Friday in the US; it should help the Wii U get two solid weeks of sales at least and should drive total numbers up a great deal, it is not out of the question that November alone will amount to about 30-33% of the total CY sales before Dec 1st and it is also possible that November and December will be practically the same for the Wii U, November might even be bigger, depending on Black Friday.

The Wii U sold around 1.6 million in November/December last year, it would need and increase of about 70% yoy to beat that and I'm not convinced that Smash Bros is big enough for that, especially since this is a considerably smaller franchise in Europe and Japan will be dominated by the 3DS version for sure. It's not like there was nothing driving holiday sales last year with massive advertising, bunch of bundles, recent price cut and Super Mario 3D World.

I think it will fall just short of 10 million, landing at 9.7-9.8, with the possibility of adjustments over new year's. Let's also not forget that the Wii U is likely overtracked by at least 100k or slightly more.