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Forums - Nintendo - How powerful will Nintendo's next handheld be?

curl-6 on 10 October 2014
the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

People see a mobile phone as an essential purchase, but not a gaming handheld. And if they can get their gaming fix on their phone, that will discourage many from spending the extra money on a handheld.

Yes, Nintendo has powerful franchises, but as we've seen with the Wii U, that's not always a get out of jail free card.

We'll probably just have to agree to disagree, but I honestly don't believe dedicated gaming handhelds have a future.

This is already true and has been true for the entirety of the 3DS's life. Gaming handhelds were never seen as an "essential" purchase. They are a luxury product when priced too high and a toy when priced low enough. Americans love to buy expensive things they don't need, so just because most people own a smart phone already doesn't mean none of them will want to buy a dedicated handheld -- as proven by the 3DS, which has sold more consoles in any single region than the Vita has sold globally. I have not seen any major change in the market within the past ten minutes which would convince me that Nintendo's next handheld will sell one-fourth what the 3DS has managed.

How do you account for the shrink in userbase from DS to 3DS?



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the_dengle on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:

How do you account for the shrink in userbase from DS to 3DS?

You mean the roughly 50% contraction? As opposed to the 80% contraction you predict from the 3DS to its successor? Like this.



Locknuts on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:
Locknuts said:
curl-6 said:
Locknuts said:

So the 'New 3DS' is not classed as a successor even though it has it's own exclusive software due to upgraded hardware? This is like the Genesis/Megadrive days all over again.

More like the DSi.

What exclusive software did the DSi have? The digital stuff?

DSiWare, yes.

There were 5 retail games that were DSi only as well, but that's hardly enough to be worth mentioning. Then again, we may only get 5 games exclusive to New 3DS too...

I see. Never knew that. Stopped being a Nintendo fan around that time. I'm back though.



curl-6 on 10 October 2014
the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

How do you account for the shrink in userbase from DS to 3DS?

You mean the roughly 50% contraction? As opposed to the 80% contraction you predict from the 3DS to its successor? Like this.

Before Wii U released, it was all but inconcievable that the successor to a console that sold 100 million would drop by 80%, yet here we are.



Mr_No on 10 October 2014

Not as powerful as the PS4/Xbox One but more powerful than the Vita CPU wise.



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the_dengle on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:

Before Wii U released, it was all but inconcievable that the successor to a console that sold 100 million would drop by 80%, yet here we are.

Before the Wii released, it was all but inconceivable that the successor to the GameCube would outsell the successor to the PlayStation 2, yet here we are.



curl-6 on 10 October 2014
the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

Before Wii U released, it was all but inconcievable that the successor to a console that sold 100 million would drop by 80%, yet here we are.

Before the Wii released, it was all but inconceivable that the successor to the GameCube would outsell the successor to the PlayStation 2, yet here we are.

There's been a clear and recent precedent set for a massive shrinking of Nintendo's marketshare, and with the handheld market having already shrunk by 50% this gen, the future for dedicated portable gaming looks pretty bleak from where I'm standing.



the_dengle on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:

There's been a clear and recent precedent set for a massive shrinking of Nintendo's marketshare, and with the handheld market having already shrunk by 50% this gen, the future for dedicated portable gaming looks pretty bleak from where I'm standing.

None of this amounts to evidence to support your prediction. It's all just "I've got a bad feeling about this," and "Something similar happened before."

Answer me this, if the next Nintendo handheld does Vita numbers (let's estimate 12 million lifetime sales), will the mainline Pokemon games have about a 100% attach rate, or will Pokemon contract to less than half the sales of its worst-selling installment to date? Same question for Mario Kart, and for Mario, and for Animal Crossing.

Proving that something is within the realm of possibility is not justification to believe that it will happen.



curl-6 on 10 October 2014
the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

There's been a clear and recent precedent set for a massive shrinking of Nintendo's marketshare, and with the handheld market having already shrunk by 50% this gen, the future for dedicated portable gaming looks pretty bleak from where I'm standing.

None of this amounts to evidence to support your prediction. It's all just "I've got a bad feeling about this," and "Something similar happened before."

Answer me this, if the next Nintendo handheld does Vita numbers (let's estimate 12 million lifetime sales), will the mainline Pokemon games have about a 100% attach rate, or will Pokemon contract to less than half the sales of its worst-selling installment to date? Same question for Mario Kart, and for Mario, and for Animal Crossing.

Proving that something is within the realm of possibility is not justification to believe that it will happen.

I think Vita will do more than 12 million lifetime. With the right games it could still pick up in Japan. Monster Hunter or Final Fantasy should do the trick.

New Super Mario Bros U has about a 2/3 attach rate with Wii U, Pokemon could go even higher on a theoretical HDS.



David_Hernandeez on 10 October 2014

I may sound stupid or I know many people don't want it, but I want Nintendo to make a Handheld/Smartphone with a propietary OS, pjysical buttons, and a price of 200-250, but it needs to have the same functions as a smartphone. It will sell really good, and will be easier to attract new people.