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Forums - Nintendo - How powerful will Nintendo's next handheld be?

curl-6 on 10 October 2014
David_Hernandeez said:
I may sound stupid or I know many people don't want it, but I want Nintendo to make a Handheld/Smartphone with a propietary OS, pjysical buttons, and a price of 200-250, but it needs to have the same functions as a smartphone. It will sell really good, and will be easier to attract new people.

This is a good idea, it would help combat the shrinking market, I just don't have faith in Nintendo to see and properly seize this opportunity.



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Moonhero on 10 October 2014

Xbox One power.



Ask stefl1504 for a sig, even if you don't need one.

the_dengle on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:
the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

There's been a clear and recent precedent set for a massive shrinking of Nintendo's marketshare, and with the handheld market having already shrunk by 50% this gen, the future for dedicated portable gaming looks pretty bleak from where I'm standing.

None of this amounts to evidence to support your prediction. It's all just "I've got a bad feeling about this," and "Something similar happened before."

Answer me this, if the next Nintendo handheld does Vita numbers (let's estimate 12 million lifetime sales), will the mainline Pokemon games have about a 100% attach rate, or will Pokemon contract to less than half the sales of its worst-selling installment to date? Same question for Mario Kart, and for Mario, and for Animal Crossing.

Proving that something is within the realm of possibility is not justification to believe that it will happen.

I think Vita will do more than 12 million lifetime. With the right games it could still pick up in Japan. Monster Hunter or Final Fantasy should do the trick.

New Super Mario Bros U has about a 2/3 attach rate with Wii U, Pokemon could go even higher on a theoretical HDS.

This is what I'm talking about. Commit to something. If you think Pokemon will have a 75% or higher attach rate, say so. Telling me it's theoretically possible because a different game has a 65%ish attach rate on a different platform proves nothing. At least show that you believe what you are saying and that you haven't simply narrowed it down to the worst-case scenario without reasoning through any of the implications of that prediction.

Weird thing is you're doing the opposite with the Vita. It could pick up with the right games! I won't say it will, but it could! HDS, though, that could bomb hard. I think it will because it could. It will get the right games, too, they'll just all have absurdly high attach rates.



David_Hernandeez on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:
David_Hernandeez said:
I may sound stupid or I know many people don't want it, but I want Nintendo to make a Handheld/Smartphone with a propietary OS, pjysical buttons, and a price of 200-250, but it needs to have the same functions as a smartphone. It will sell really good, and will be easier to attract new people.

This is a good idea, it would help combat the shrinking market, I just don't have faith in Nintendo to see and properly seize this opportunity.


This should be the solution for the next handheld, but it also will combat more directly Samsung, Apple. I hope nintendo make it, is not what many people want but change have to be made, and this may sounds too harsh to many Nintendo fans, but I am a Nintendo fan too and this is the solution at least temporary.



archbrix on 10 October 2014
David_Hernandeez said:
I may sound stupid or I know many people don't want it, but I want Nintendo to make a Handheld/Smartphone with a propietary OS, pjysical buttons, and a price of 200-250, but it needs to have the same functions as a smartphone. It will sell really good, and will be easier to attract new people.

I understand your basis for Nintendo to create the kind of device that people carry around with them all of the time, but a handheld/phone would be positively disastrous for Ninty to pursue.  A handheld/tablet device, however...



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curl-6 on 10 October 2014
the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

I think Vita will do more than 12 million lifetime. With the right games it could still pick up in Japan. Monster Hunter or Final Fantasy should do the trick.

New Super Mario Bros U has about a 2/3 attach rate with Wii U, Pokemon could go even higher on a theoretical HDS.

This is what I'm talking about. Commit to something. If you think Pokemon will have a 75% or higher attach rate, say so. Telling me it's theoretically possible because a different game has a 65%ish attach rate on a different platform proves nothing. At least show that you believe what you are saying and that you haven't simply narrowed it down to the worst-case scenario without reasoning through any of the implications of that prediction.

Weird thing is you're doing the opposite with the Vita. It could pick up with the right games! I won't say it will, but it could! HDS, though, that could bomb hard. I think it will because it could. It will get the right games, too, they'll just all have absurdly high attach rates.

How can I commit to exact numbers in a theoretical scenario with so many unknown variables?

I mention the Vita doing better than you forecast because that means that HDS will do higher numbers to land in the same ballpark. (It'll probably outsell Vita by a bit, but likely still in the same ballpark)

Wii U got the big NIntendo games too but that didn't bring it back to anywhere near Wii numbers. HDS could similarly get the big games but fall far short of 3DS's numbers, with the games then becoming capped by the low install base.



HoloDust on 10 October 2014

Depends of whether or not the whole Fusion concept (same games on console and handheld) is true or not, and do they want 3rd party multiplat support on their home console in next gen or not.

If yes, then they will need beefy GPU inside console (and handheld, cause of Fusion), so I don't think anything less than Tegra K1 (nVidia Shield Tablet) level performance will be enough.

Fun facts about Shield Tablet:

- up to 327GFLOPs (when GPU is pushed to limits and runs at 852Hz)
- drastically faster than Vita, some 8x (haven't seen any direct comparisons though, doubt they exist, but data is extrapolated from iPad 3 performance which has pretty much the same GPU with slightly higher clock)
- $299 price tag

TBH, if they are going with Fusion AND multiplat support for next home console, I think even K1 is not enough, more like 1.5-2x K1, but let's wait and see.



Blob on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:
David_Hernandeez said:
I may sound stupid or I know many people don't want it, but I want Nintendo to make a Handheld/Smartphone with a propietary OS, pjysical buttons, and a price of 200-250, but it needs to have the same functions as a smartphone. It will sell really good, and will be easier to attract new people.

This is a good idea, it would help combat the shrinking market, I just don't have faith in Nintendo to see and properly seize this opportunity.


I think that the better option would be to team up with a phone company like samsung and have an s7 model with 3ds successor capabilities while also having a standalone handheld. this limits how much money nintendo has to invest on hardware while still providing a "nintendo" phone. 



archbrix on 10 October 2014
RolStoppable said:
David_Hernandeez said:

This should be the solution for the next handheld, but it also will combat more directly Samsung, Apple. I hope nintendo make it, is not what many people want but change have to be made, and this may sounds too harsh to many Nintendo fans, but I am a Nintendo fan too and this is the solution at least temporary.

It's not a viable solution, because it falls into the same trap as the Wii U. Your suggestion is to make a Nintendo-branded substitute for an existing product in the market. In such a case the question for the consumer becomes "Why should I buy the Nintendo product when what I have already does what I want?", to which you are going to answer: "Um... the Nintendo product will have everything the other products have, but it will have Nintendo games too!"

So the reason to buy the Nintendo product has been narrowed down to Nintendo games. But if it all comes down to Nintendo games, then everything else can and should be removed to maximize the selling power of Nintendo titles. Because if Nintendo software doesn't manage to attract people, then the whole product falls flat.

Excellent point, but the conundrum with a portable is that people are less inclined to carry around multiple devices.  Do you believe that Nintendo's best option is to go the dedicated handheld route again?



Gammalad on 10 October 2014
curl-6 said:
Gammalad said:
I think it will be the HDS

You may be onto something there. Quick, trademark is before Nintendo does! :p

(Or at least put it in your sig with a date, so you get to do an epic "I told you so" come 2017. ;)

Done. Ill add "I told you so" to my signature in 2017 if it comes true lol.



"I think it will be the HDS"-Me in regards to Nintendo's next handheld.