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curl-6 on 10 October 2014
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the_dengle said:
curl-6 said:

I think Vita will do more than 12 million lifetime. With the right games it could still pick up in Japan. Monster Hunter or Final Fantasy should do the trick.

New Super Mario Bros U has about a 2/3 attach rate with Wii U, Pokemon could go even higher on a theoretical HDS.

This is what I'm talking about. Commit to something. If you think Pokemon will have a 75% or higher attach rate, say so. Telling me it's theoretically possible because a different game has a 65%ish attach rate on a different platform proves nothing. At least show that you believe what you are saying and that you haven't simply narrowed it down to the worst-case scenario without reasoning through any of the implications of that prediction.

Weird thing is you're doing the opposite with the Vita. It could pick up with the right games! I won't say it will, but it could! HDS, though, that could bomb hard. I think it will because it could. It will get the right games, too, they'll just all have absurdly high attach rates.

How can I commit to exact numbers in a theoretical scenario with so many unknown variables?

I mention the Vita doing better than you forecast because that means that HDS will do higher numbers to land in the same ballpark. (It'll probably outsell Vita by a bit, but likely still in the same ballpark)

Wii U got the big NIntendo games too but that didn't bring it back to anywhere near Wii numbers. HDS could similarly get the big games but fall far short of 3DS's numbers, with the games then becoming capped by the low install base.