How powerful will Nintendo's next handheld be?

[the_dengle]

curl-6 said:

the_dengle said:

curl-6 said:

There's been a clear and recent precedent set for a massive shrinking of Nintendo's marketshare, and with the handheld market having already shrunk by 50% this gen, the future for dedicated portable gaming looks pretty bleak from where I'm standing.

None of this amounts to evidence to support your prediction. It's all just "I've got a bad feeling about this," and "Something similar happened before."

Answer me this, if the next Nintendo handheld does Vita numbers (let's estimate 12 million lifetime sales), will the mainline Pokemon games have about a 100% attach rate, or will Pokemon contract to less than half the sales of its worst-selling installment to date? Same question for Mario Kart, and for Mario, and for Animal Crossing.

Proving that something is within the realm of possibility is not justification to believe that it will happen.

I think Vita will do more than 12 million lifetime. With the right games it could still pick up in Japan. Monster Hunter or Final Fantasy should do the trick.

New Super Mario Bros U has about a 2/3 attach rate with Wii U, Pokemon could go even higher on a theoretical HDS.

This is what I'm talking about. Commit to something. If you think Pokemon will have a 75% or higher attach rate, say so. Telling me it's theoretically possible because a different game has a 65%ish attach rate on a different platform proves nothing. At least show that you believe what you are saying and that you haven't simply narrowed it down to the worst-case scenario without reasoning through any of the implications of that prediction.

Weird thing is you're doing the opposite with the Vita. It could pick up with the right games! I won't say it will, but it could! HDS, though, that could bomb hard. I think it will because it could. It will get the right games, too, they'll just all have absurdly high attach rates.