Of all the games Nintendo could bundle these holidays, Captain Toad doesn't seem one of the likely ones.

lol true. Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta 2 and SSB4U will probably be more likely.

What number equals not well?

That's how much I see it selling.

It depends, if Nintendo decides to release digital only or physical.

Physical & digital: 300.000 fist week, 2.5 million lifetime
Digital only: A third of the above.

Maybe they can bundle it with Mario 3D World. It may help both games.

Why are people comparing it to DKC:TF?

A game that came out, not in the holidays, with an entry the year before on the 3DS and a bit earlier on Wii, with nothing to immediately set it apart from those, coming out vert early 2014 where the Wii U was in a totally different situation?

Heck, people who buy a Wii U for Smash Bros might want a secong game with their system and go "Huh. Lemmie try out this Toad thing."

Toad is awesome to me but lame to others. The game will be niche.

950K or so LT seems fair. People might buy it just to get another game that supports Amiibo.

400.000 - 800.000 lifetime max.

I would totally buy a Captain Toad Amiibo:)

I don't have a Wii U and don't care to collect things. Yet, I'd still feel compelled to buy a Toad Amiibo

It`s hard to guess for a game like this.
If it comes out before Black Friday and if Nintendo does market it well, chances are it will do well for Nintendo.

My guess is between 700k and 1M, this year, specially if amiibo sells really well.
Lifetime sales might also depend on what amiibo will bring to the game and if does indeed sell well.