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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How well will Captain Toad sell?

400k this holiday. 1.5 million lifetime.

Biggest games of the holiday 2014 for Wii U are:
1. Smash
2. Mario Kart 8 (because bundles)
3. Hyrule Warriors
4. Bayonetta 2
5. Super Mario 3D World (which will leg out better than most expect)

It'll outpace DKC:TF for the holiday, and maybe NSMBU too.

Playing Captain Toad without playing SM3DW makes no sense. I think a lot reviews and recommendations will be like "Captain Toad is a good game, but if you haven't played SM3DW you should try that first"



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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Hibern81 said:
JWeinCom said:
KLXVER said:
JWeinCom said:
I feel like I'm missing something here. Not sure why people expect this to be such a huge hit. The game seems to scream niche. It's an odd sort of puzzle/platform hybrid featuring a C rank Mario character. I'm not saying it won't be good, I'm sure it will be, but I don't see why people are expecting such huge sales, especially with Wii U figures where they're at.


I think it will ride on the success of 3D world. 


3D World is tracking far below pretty much every other 3D Mario game.  Optimistically (without bundling) 3D World will sell about 6-7 million.  I don't think 2/3 of those people are going to buy Captain Toad as many are predicting.


So what's your prediction then?

It's a little bit hard to say with just the trailer to go by.  The game looks reasonably fun, but it doesn't seem to have a really strong hook to get gamers interested, unless they've played 3D World.  More important than that is the Wii U hardware.  Honestly, I don't see a huge surge in Wii U sales with the 2014 lineup (unless Smash and Amiibo do a lot more than I anticipated) and overall I expect Wii U sales to remain fairly low.  I see the sales of Toad Tracker as being in line with other lesser Nintendo franchises (i.e. Kirby, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus).  Because it's made by EAD Tokyo, I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt and assume it will do very well with reviews which will bump up sales a bit.  So... about 1.2 million lifetime would be my guess.

KLXVER said:

jlmurph2 said:


Lol no, dont try comparing any Wii games' sales to try  and predict the sales for Wii U games.

Im just saying that if a shitty game can do 3.5 million, then Treasure Tracker will beat it.




Games that did not beat Wii Music:  Wii Fit U, Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze, Red Steel 2, Pikmin 3, Lego City Undercover, Kid Icarus Uprising, Fire Emblem Awakening, Bayonetta, Wario Ware Smooth Moves, Devil May Cry, Ratchet and Clank, etc etc.  Not sure where the logic in your statement is.



curl-6 said:
fedfed said:

Niche game however it could be good and bundled so I guess 350k holiday - 1(.5) lifetime?

Of all the games Nintendo could bundle these holidays, Captain Toad doesn't seem one of the likely ones.


I meant in the future - general... plus available as free games when something else will coem out... like they did with MK8.



Switch!!!

Darwinianevolution said:
It depends, if Nintendo decides to release digital only or physical.

Physical & digital: 300.000 fist week, 2.5 million lifetime
Digital only: A third of the above.

Maybe they can bundle it with Mario 3D World. It may help both games.


Actually... NSMB/NSL style... not a bad thought!



Switch!!!

Hopefully it can reach 600k lifeftime.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


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fedfed said:
£29.99 in UK please!


Not ambitious enough.

£19.99 in UK please! (day 1 for me at that price!)



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

Wow I didnt really know people expect this game to sell



500k holiday
2-3.5 million LTD



400k LTD



300k holiday 900k life