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Forums - Sales - X1 will never catch or match PS4 sales, it is a misfired product.

freedquaker on 19 June 2014
BeElite said:

- Alot of X1 greatest failures is it did things maybe even did them well, but it was is things No one actualy asked for from a gaming console.

- It will struggle mightly to even achice half the sales 360 did.

Its current market failing is due to the simple fact is its figthing for sales on PS4 terms and rules and it simply is inferior at it and has no chance there.  Right now its being sold as something its was not originaly designed to do.  The costant flip flops as anwsers to failing sales in light of the onslought at the hands of the PS4 has not worked and all its done is confuse consumers while maintaining their string of bad pr and has send a message that it a struggling product.  X1 was not designed as a core console a pure gaming machice, but do to its failures that is now the battle ground where its competitions message has been clear.  PS4 is a gaming console first and fore most, sales shown people have welcomed that with open wallets.  

misfired as

Always online initial X1 vision- major failure market out right says no PS4 preorder skyrocket over X1.
Multipourpose entertaiment box - once more failure PS4 leads sales.
Waggle Kinetix tv whatever the hell - PS4 leads
Titanfall 450 bundle msg changing - PS4 still leads even in Murica
Secret souce cloud - now just dedicated servers
D12 mega power boost, Philly S "not a major change"
399 Kless Sku, E3 core gmaing console

Could be more "what the x1 is does msges that failed" MS was kinda all over the place with this.

I fully expect the 399 sku and new supposed focus on games to fail again in terms of out selling the PS4, while it sounds good there have come to many flip flops and pr failures to really buy into it.  And history shows whatever they do PS4 still leads, as that happens MS flips flops to another msg and strategy... hell if i know whats next.

Also none should expect price parity to be enough to match PS4 sales.  Its still an inferior product in most ways, to match PS4 sales it would have to be much cheaper then it.  Ala 360/PS3 price, parity is NO where near enough to brawl it out with the PS4.  While it may bump sales near PS4 or maybe a miracle and even higher then it in June.  It will be short lived and will quickly drop to its regular levales though a bit higher then previous.

Biggest failure on X1 part is it lost the walmart crowd from last gen, this is where the price hurt the most.  Hard to show it as we get no sale numbers but the largest retailer that has most custumers many the lower classes is where price matters most.  360s sub PS3 price was a mega win here and a big reason i think 360 did so well in US in comparison to the PS3.  Maybe others can add to this, but from what iv seem shoppin there.  I think thats where the 360 did majority of its sales ass kicking.  

 

Last gen

.............................NA........Euro....Japan.....rest......total
PlayStation 3 (PS3) 28.49    32.98    10.00    11.36 - 82.83
Xbox 360 (X360)        46.58    25.23      1.66       7.87 - 81.34

I predict X1 market share of 30% of NA 20%  Europe and rest 10%.  Going of last gen that would be NA 22.5 , Eurrr 11.6, rest 2 and irrelevence in Japan.   And we get 36 which works out to sub half of what 360 did.  PS4 gets 124m of the market.  

Which leaves X1 at 22.5% PS4/xone market share.  Now it may seem to low and unlikly but reality is.

PS4 has taken 71% of the PS4/xone market for 2014.   

You'll be amazed to see how accurate my predictions have been since 1 year earlier.

I said, "XB1 will be lucky if it can sell half as much as PS4 globally, and can manage 45% in US, forget the majority market share".

See my original market estimates in my signature.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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Dallinor on 19 June 2014
Dark_Feanor said:
It took Sony 3 years and 5bi losses to start turn the PS3 arround.

Microsoft in 6 months removed all that people here complained about. And for that same people that asked for no DRM, no apps pay wall and no Kinect are the same saing XOne has no chance against the all might PS4.

For those people dosen´t matter the price, dosen´t matter the apps and eccosistem, doesn´t matter the games the XOne is doomed.

Now the XOne is just a more powerfull 360, just as the PS4 is a more power PS3. Thinking consumers will still wonder about multiplat resolution is, with all respect, BULL SHIT.

I think it's naive to claim that consumers don't have some knowledge on these matters. The discrepancy is being propogated across the internet and through word of mouth. Not everyone tuned in to watch the initial Xbone reveal, but through various channels, like twitter, youtube and various gaming websites, a larger section of the general public were exposed to negative reactions to MS's intial missteps.

I'd say things like resolution are largely irrelevant at differing price points. However, with two products carrying the same price tag and one being widely broadcasted as 'more powerful', it may have a larger sway than we think, beyond the limited boundaries of video game threads scrutinizing pixels.



 

Dark_Feanor on 19 June 2014
Dallinor said:
Dark_Feanor said:
It took Sony 3 years and 5bi losses to start turn the PS3 arround.

Microsoft in 6 months removed all that people here complained about. And for that same people that asked for no DRM, no apps pay wall and no Kinect are the same saing XOne has no chance against the all might PS4.

For those people dosen´t matter the price, dosen´t matter the apps and eccosistem, doesn´t matter the games the XOne is doomed.

Now the XOne is just a more powerfull 360, just as the PS4 is a more power PS3. Thinking consumers will still wonder about multiplat resolution is, with all respect, BULL SHIT.

I think it's naive to claim that consumers don't have some knowledge on these matters. The discrepancy is being propogated across the internet and through word of mouth. Not everyone tuned in to watch the initial Xbone reveal, but through various channels, like twitter, youtube and various gaming websites, a larger section of the general public were exposed to negative reactions to MS's intial missteps.

I'd say things like resolution are largely irrelevant at differing price points. However, with two products carrying the same price tag and one being widely broadcasted as 'more powerful', it may have a larger sway than we think, beyond the limited boundaries of video game threads scrutinizing pixels.


You are right if these issues are hammered into public perception, and if it´s effect the overall quality of the games and services. But not when that dosen´t effect the user "apreciation".

There were much more hate toward Microsoft because of the DRM than anything else. After that was the price, granted to bundling Kinect... then it wasn´t until octuber with COD:Ghots resolutiongate.

And let´s be honest even with the only two games which are 720p vs 1080p they are exactly the same game, they play the same way and have the same feture (let´s ignore exclusive content).

Do you think that every smartphone with a better screen resolution will sell better than it´s competior sole because of that?

But, hey!! What else can Microsoft do? Recall all their XOne and release a new one with slight more RAM and ROPs in the GPU?



prinz_valium on 19 June 2014

xbox one will do 150 mio+ lifetime sales
ps 4 100 mio +



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 19 June 2014
Dark_Feanor said:

Show me a game on PS4 with ~30 more frames than XOne, please, because the last I checked Tomb Raider DE avarage fps was 50 or less. 

My point remains, do you think that every one 300mi people that bought last gen consoles were aware of multplat "parity", or resolution or fps?  

I wasn´t, most of my friends weren´t. They bought 360 and know XOne because they were cheaper, a lot, here in Brazil (there was the fact that the 360 could be jailbraked but lets ignore it).

You claim general consumers won't be concerned with resolution and yet you know that they can easily tell the difference between they advertised 60 and the average 50?

Those 300 million people were told by their friends, or the media, or by the retail clerks that the XB360 had the best games or at least the best console versions of games. Yes price is also a point, but since the kinectless sku isn't undercutting the PS4, its not going to sway the favor in that of XB1 just even the playing field. Furthermore, with the prices equal, the features equal, having the best games (multiplats) is a lot more important this time around. Retail clerks are going to be asked whats the difference, when they can't say price, they are going to say the PS4s resolutions are higher, consumers will be like (higher for same price) = better, its that simple.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

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Mr Puggsly on 19 June 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Retail clerks are going to be asked whats the difference, when they can't say price, they are going to say the PS4s resolutions are higher, consumers will be like (higher for same price) = better, its that simple.

You're out of touch with the average consumer. They will not discuss resolution and frame rates, they will discuss games and price.

Safe bet the average clerk is not reading Digital Foundry articles. Those are for forum dwellers like us.



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Dark_Feanor on 19 June 2014
Mr Puggsly said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Retail clerks are going to be asked whats the difference, when they can't say price, they are going to say the PS4s resolutions are higher, consumers will be like (higher for same price) = better, its that simple.

You're out of touch with the average consumer. They will not discuss resolution and frame rates, they will discuss games and price.

Safe bet the average clerk is not reading Digital Foundry articles. Those are for forum dwellers like us.

The destiny of two billionaier companies rests on the shoulders of Game Stop clerks, because God help geting any usefull information from a COSCO´s or Wallmart employeer.



Arkaign on 19 June 2014

OP is correct. XB1 is a massive failure when measured against the 360's trajectory. It's DOA outside US/UK, and hobbled even in their previous strongholds.

Lifetime 35-40m for XB1, 90-110 for PS4.



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 19 June 2014
Mr Puggsly said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

Retail clerks are going to be asked whats the difference, when they can't say price, they are going to say the PS4s resolutions are higher, consumers will be like (higher for same price) = better, its that simple.

You're out of touch with the average consumer. They will not discuss resolution and frame rates, they will discuss games and price.

Safe bet the average clerk is not reading Digital Foundry articles. Those are for forum dwellers like us.

Did you even read what I said? Clerks are the one who will talk about it, because price isn't going to get them anywhere.

Retail Clerks are going to be asked the difference, Consumers can't just look at the price difference anymore, and the average consumer will be more concerned with multiplats then exclusives

If you're selling consoles, you would at the very least know the difference between consoles considering that is your job, not to mention a simple google search will tell you.

The consumer is not going to be happy if the Clerk responsible for selling to them can't come up with a difference.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Egann on 19 June 2014

At this point I think the X1 only has a 50-50 chance of catching the Wii U.  The Wii U at least has a fair argument to buy it regardless of how third party or hardware sales go, but the X1 is now getting outsold in the Americas by about 2:1. Next week will really be the the proof on if the price drop did anything, but my guess is that it won't do enough.