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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Wii U Sales MK8 Launch Week and 2 Following Weeks

episteme said:
Mummelmann said:

Hmm, this is a tough one.
Personally, anything below 100k hardware for launch week would be a letdown but I think the drops will be rather big. I'm gonna go with 110k first week, followed by 75k second week and 55k third week, back to low 30's within july unless something unexpected to happen.
I see that some are suggesting MK alone will raise weekly baseline sales until fall by up to and over 100%, this is ridiculous.

For reference; the Wii got a boost of about 33% on the best week of MK Wii sales, but it's kind of hard to imagine the exact number (was actually down week over week on launch week) since it supply constrained well into 2008. MK Wii sold about 1 million week one on a 24 million installed base, 3.5 million first week for MK8 is beyond madness, PigPen, that's 3.5 times the opening sales of MK Wii (yes, it had a staggered launch but the Wii's installed base was huge compared to the Wii U (it actually had almost 6 million in Japan alone at that time). I would hardly call anyone opposed to this extremely far-fetched idea a "hater".

I'm thinking it should sell about 450-550k first week (software), with a fairly small drop for week two. Lifetime is hard to say, I can't imagine the series losing attach rate with the Wii U audience being starved for 1st party goodness, should manage about 6.5-7 million lifetime if keeps the attach rates from the 7th gen.


MK Wii was released a few weeks later in NA. USA + Europe + Japan FW is at 2105633 according to vgc.

Many Wii U games started with around one third of the sales of early Wii games of the same franchises. I expect at least 800K because it's one of the most hyped up Nintendo games in recent years and the free game promotion will help, too.


550k would place it more or less in the middle of the same first week sales as the Wii version given that the installed base will be roughly one quarter. I don't see why MK8 will perform better than Mario Kart Wii with the insane momentum the Wii and its software had at the time, it was a ridiculously hot item at the time and came off of the hem of Smash Bros success while the Wii U has flown below the radar for months now.

People are putting way too much faith in one title, in my honest opinion, and are only setting themselves up for massive disappointments.



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wii u

1. 200k

2. 70 k

3. 40k


mk8

1. 300k

2. 140k

3. 90k



Tsubasa Ozora

Keiner kann ihn bremsen, keiner macht ihm was vor. Immer der richtige Schuss, immer zur richtigen Zeit. Superfussball, Fairer Fussball. Er ist unser Torschützenkönig und Held.

PigPen said:
DerNebel said:

My opinion is "better" than yours because it is based on data for past Wii U games, past Mario Kart games and the Wii Us userbase.

You literally expect over 50% of Wii U owners to go out and buy MK8 in its first week. You expect it to do about 1.75 as much as MK Wii did in its first week and close to 3 times as much as MK7 did, that is not in the realm of possibilities.

If I were to say that the PS4 would go on to sell 2 million consoles next week, you could rightfully call this opinion ridiculous, cause that is just what it'd be, the same applies to your opinion on MK8s first week sales.

You can't be taken seriously.  Your opinion is NOT better then mines.

Oh, but it is. Your prediction is awful.



Global?

Wii U
1. 80k
2. 50k
3. Back to the 30K

Mario Kart 8
1. 450K
2. 300K
3. 100K



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

DucksUnlimited said:
PigPen said:

You can't be taken seriously.  Your opinion is NOT better then mines.

Oh, but it is. Your prediction is awful.

Like Zero999/Johnlucas bad. LOL XD 

Hopefully the mods don't take this as a slam towards those referred users and sees it as a joke instead used for the sake of comparison for relative positioning.



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Hmm... For launch week, I think just about anything could happen. A lot depends on what's happening behind the scenes and how Nintendo themselves want to approach things.

Purely as a possibility, I can see anything from 60k at the lowest to 200k at the highest. The number I feel most confident with though is 140k. Obviously it seems ridiculously high, but I think there's a lot of pent up demand, with MK simply acting as the breaking point for all the people that needed a certain amount of titles before jumping on board.

I expect the second week to be around 70% of the first week, and the third week to be about 50% of the first week.

Of course I'd love to see it flop right out of the gate, but I'm not getting my hopes up just yet. :P



DucksUnlimited said:
PigPen said:
DerNebel said:
 

My opinion is "better" than yours because it is based on data for past Wii U games, past Mario Kart games and the Wii Us userbase.

You literally expect over 50% of Wii U owners to go out and buy MK8 in its first week. You expect it to do about 1.75 as much as MK Wii did in its first week and close to 3 times as much as MK7 did, that is not in the realm of possibilities.

If I were to say that the PS4 would go on to sell 2 million consoles next week, you could rightfully call this opinion ridiculous, cause that is just what it'd be, the same applies to your opinion on MK8s first week sales.

You can't be taken seriously.  Your opinion is NOT better then mines.

Oh, but it is. Your prediction is awful.


Your opinion is awful.  So I'm suppose to agree with you now?  lol



PigPen said:
DucksUnlimited said:
PigPen said:
DerNebel said:
 

My opinion is "better" than yours because it is based on data for past Wii U games, past Mario Kart games and the Wii Us userbase.

You literally expect over 50% of Wii U owners to go out and buy MK8 in its first week. You expect it to do about 1.75 as much as MK Wii did in its first week and close to 3 times as much as MK7 did, that is not in the realm of possibilities.

If I were to say that the PS4 would go on to sell 2 million consoles next week, you could rightfully call this opinion ridiculous, cause that is just what it'd be, the same applies to your opinion on MK8s first week sales.

You can't be taken seriously.  Your opinion is NOT better then mines.

Oh, but it is. Your prediction is awful.


Your opinion is awful.  So I'm suppose to agree with you now?  lol

You don't have to agree with his opinion, but you should aknowledge that it is founded in reason and logic. Your opinion is founded in insanity.  




Mensrea said:
PigPen said:
DucksUnlimited said:
PigPen said:
DerNebel said:
 

My opinion is "better" than yours because it is based on data for past Wii U games, past Mario Kart games and the Wii Us userbase.

You literally expect over 50% of Wii U owners to go out and buy MK8 in its first week. You expect it to do about 1.75 as much as MK Wii did in its first week and close to 3 times as much as MK7 did, that is not in the realm of possibilities.

If I were to say that the PS4 would go on to sell 2 million consoles next week, you could rightfully call this opinion ridiculous, cause that is just what it'd be, the same applies to your opinion on MK8s first week sales.

You can't be taken seriously.  Your opinion is NOT better then mines.

Oh, but it is. Your prediction is awful.


Your opinion is awful.  So I'm suppose to agree with you now?  lol

You don't have to agree with his opinion, but you should aknowledge that it is founded in reason and logic. Your opinion is founded in insanity.  


I should aknowledge what?  Now you are talking crazy.



PigPen said:


I should aknowledge what?  Now you are talking crazy.


I'm actually speaking english.