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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Wii U Sales MK8 Launch Week and 2 Following Weeks

drake_tolu on 17 May 2014
DerNebel said:
PigPen said:
DerNebel said:

My opinion is "better" than yours because it is based on data for past Wii U games, past Mario Kart games and the Wii Us userbase.

You literally expect over 50% of Wii U owners to go out and buy MK8 in its first week. You expect it to do about 1.75 as much as MK Wii did in its first week and close to 3 times as much as MK7 did, that is not in the realm of possibilities.

If I were to say that the PS4 would go on to sell 2 million consoles next week, you could rightfully call this opinion ridiculous, cause that is just what it'd be, the same applies to your opinion on MK8s first week sales.

You can't be taken seriously.  Your opinion is NOT better then mines.

At least try to refute my point. If you can look at the situation of the Wii U and the things I just told you about the past MK games and still think "Yup, 3.5 million first week seems plausible", then my "opinion" (I prefer the term prediction) in this regard is definitely better than yours.  


Stop quarrel, make peace. :3



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Mummelmann on 17 May 2014

Hmm, this is a tough one.
Personally, anything below 100k hardware for launch week would be a letdown but I think the drops will be rather big. I'm gonna go with 110k first week, followed by 75k second week and 55k third week, back to low 30's within july unless something unexpected to happen.
I see that some are suggesting MK alone will raise weekly baseline sales until fall by up to and over 100%, this is ridiculous.

For reference; the Wii got a boost of about 33% on the best week of MK Wii sales, but it's kind of hard to imagine the exact number (was actually down week over week on launch week) since it supply constrained well into 2008. MK Wii sold about 1 million week one on a 24 million installed base, 3.5 million first week for MK8 is beyond madness, PigPen, that's 3.5 times the opening sales of MK Wii (yes, it had a staggered launch but the Wii's installed base was huge compared to the Wii U (it actually had almost 6 million in Japan alone at that time). I would hardly call anyone opposed to this extremely far-fetched idea a "hater".

I'm thinking it should sell about 450-550k first week (software), with a fairly small drop for week two. Lifetime is hard to say, I can't imagine the series losing attach rate with the Wii U audience being starved for 1st party goodness, should manage about 6.5-7 million lifetime if keeps the attach rates from the 7th gen.



bubblegamer on 17 May 2014

Console,
First week 90k
Second week 60k
Third week 45k

Game,
First week 520k
Second week 160k
Third week 90k



Ljink96 on 17 May 2014

Nintendo should put up a MK8 promotion by trading in your Wii, you get some cash off of your Wii U purchase. They need something that will help their previous fans go back.



KoopaKid on 17 May 2014

Hardware prediction

1st week 100k

2nd week 90k

3rd week 75k

Software

1st week 750k easy

2nd week 400k

3rd week 200k



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NintendoPie on 17 May 2014
Mummelmann said:

Hmm, this is a tough one.
Personally, anything below 100k hardware for launch week would be a letdown but I think the drops will be rather big. I'm gonna go with 110k first week, followed by 75k second week and 55k third week, back to low 30's within july unless something unexpected to happen.
I see that some are suggesting MK alone will raise weekly baseline sales until fall by up to and over 100%, this is ridiculous.

Admit it Mummel, you just copied and pasted my predictions. 

I'm flattered, though.



Mummelmann on 17 May 2014
NintendoPie said:
Mummelmann said:

Hmm, this is a tough one.
Personally, anything below 100k hardware for launch week would be a letdown but I think the drops will be rather big. I'm gonna go with 110k first week, followed by 75k second week and 55k third week, back to low 30's within july unless something unexpected to happen.
I see that some are suggesting MK alone will raise weekly baseline sales until fall by up to and over 100%, this is ridiculous.

Admit it Mummel, you just copied and pasted my predictions. 

I'm flattered, though.


Oy! Whaddaya know!

Nah, I think we just have equally large brains...



Justagamer on 17 May 2014

1: 75k
2: 50k
3: 35k



Conegamer on 17 May 2014

Hmm good question.

Week 1: 115k
Week 2: 75k
Week 3: 60k



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

episteme on 17 May 2014
Mummelmann said:

Hmm, this is a tough one.
Personally, anything below 100k hardware for launch week would be a letdown but I think the drops will be rather big. I'm gonna go with 110k first week, followed by 75k second week and 55k third week, back to low 30's within july unless something unexpected to happen.
I see that some are suggesting MK alone will raise weekly baseline sales until fall by up to and over 100%, this is ridiculous.

For reference; the Wii got a boost of about 33% on the best week of MK Wii sales, but it's kind of hard to imagine the exact number (was actually down week over week on launch week) since it supply constrained well into 2008. MK Wii sold about 1 million week one on a 24 million installed base, 3.5 million first week for MK8 is beyond madness, PigPen, that's 3.5 times the opening sales of MK Wii (yes, it had a staggered launch but the Wii's installed base was huge compared to the Wii U (it actually had almost 6 million in Japan alone at that time). I would hardly call anyone opposed to this extremely far-fetched idea a "hater".

I'm thinking it should sell about 450-550k first week (software), with a fairly small drop for week two. Lifetime is hard to say, I can't imagine the series losing attach rate with the Wii U audience being starved for 1st party goodness, should manage about 6.5-7 million lifetime if keeps the attach rates from the 7th gen.


MK Wii was released a few weeks later in NA. USA + Europe + Japan FW is at 2105633 according to vgc.

Many Wii U games started with around one third of the sales that early Wii games of the same franchises had. I expect at least 800K because it's one of the most hyped Nintendo games in recent years and the free game promotion will help, too (but I'm not sure how high the consumer awareness of the promotion is).