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episteme on 17 May 2014
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Mummelmann said:

Hmm, this is a tough one.
Personally, anything below 100k hardware for launch week would be a letdown but I think the drops will be rather big. I'm gonna go with 110k first week, followed by 75k second week and 55k third week, back to low 30's within july unless something unexpected to happen.
I see that some are suggesting MK alone will raise weekly baseline sales until fall by up to and over 100%, this is ridiculous.

For reference; the Wii got a boost of about 33% on the best week of MK Wii sales, but it's kind of hard to imagine the exact number (was actually down week over week on launch week) since it supply constrained well into 2008. MK Wii sold about 1 million week one on a 24 million installed base, 3.5 million first week for MK8 is beyond madness, PigPen, that's 3.5 times the opening sales of MK Wii (yes, it had a staggered launch but the Wii's installed base was huge compared to the Wii U (it actually had almost 6 million in Japan alone at that time). I would hardly call anyone opposed to this extremely far-fetched idea a "hater".

I'm thinking it should sell about 450-550k first week (software), with a fairly small drop for week two. Lifetime is hard to say, I can't imagine the series losing attach rate with the Wii U audience being starved for 1st party goodness, should manage about 6.5-7 million lifetime if keeps the attach rates from the 7th gen.


MK Wii was released a few weeks later in NA. USA + Europe + Japan FW is at 2105633 according to vgc.

Many Wii U games started with around one third of the sales that early Wii games of the same franchises had. I expect at least 800K because it's one of the most hyped Nintendo games in recent years and the free game promotion will help, too (but I'm not sure how high the consumer awareness of the promotion is).