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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii U sales trend may be just as expected if we look at Nintendo's home console sales.

 

Did you expect Wii U's current sales trend?

Yes 127 45.85%
 
No 95 34.30%
 
Yo Mama 49 17.69%
 
Total:271
Egann on 27 April 2014

The OP post is interesting. What happens is probably that each generation some of Nintendo's customers outgrow their products. The Wii was a hot enough product to buck the trend, but the problem is basically Nintendo's IP weakening with time. Mario doesn't sell anymore because most gamers are in their 20's and 30's and Mario just doesn't interest them.

I do think Nintendo gets the picture, here, or at least a few people working there, do. Bayonetta isn't oldschool Nintendo, but it also isn't enough on it's own.



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AZWification on 27 April 2014
cheshirescat said:
Ninricken said:
I would be interested in a comparison with Sega and their hardware. And then we maybe can see the future of Nintendo, too... even if I don't like that.


Isn't there enough doom on this forum already?

Nope! We need even moar doom!



                
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Dulfite on 27 April 2014

I'm just curious what the bottom out level for Nintendo hardware is and if they can somehow make that profitable. If they have, let's say, 20 million people willing to buy consoles every generation garunteed, how much would they have to sell it for (hardware wise) and how many games would each person need to buy for their console over a span of 5-6 years for it to sustain profit?

Hardware: 20 mil x $???
Software: ??? x $60

Thoughts anyone?



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 27 April 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
MohammadBadir said:
"Let's just ignore the Wii because it doesn't fit right with my theory".


outliers get thrown out ofstatistics all the time. thats normal and really people who want to point to wii you are grasping 

/thread

an exception to the norm is not useful if its not reproducable.

Thus regardless of premeditation or not, it was luck that the market responded favorably to the Wii.

Ultimately, the winner is always lucky because the market is wild.

1/5 of Nintendo's consoles have sold 80 million or more.

1/2 of Xbox's consoles have sold 80 million or more.

3/3 of PlayStation's consoles have sold 80 million or more.

And unless the Wii U starts massively trending above the Wii, anyone who tries to use it as evidence isn't using sound logic.

The Wii U did the former, the PS4 did the latter.




In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

TheLegendaryWolf on 27 April 2014

NES: 62 million       Atari 7800: 4 million        SMS:12 million

Genesis: 40 million          SNES: 49 million      AES: >1 million      TGx16: 10 million

N64: 33 million            PS1: 104 million               Saturn: 9.5 million

XB: 25 million      PS2: 158 million     GC: 22 million       DC: 11 million

XB360: 81 million    Wii: 101 million   PS3: 83  million

NWU: 6.1 million                                                   PS4: 7.2 million                                                             XB1: 4.4 million



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S.Peelman on 27 April 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
MohammadBadir said:
"Let's just ignore the Wii because it doesn't fit right with my theory".


outliers get thrown out ofstatistics all the time. thats normal and really people who want to point to wii you are grasping 

It's only an outlier if the data-points after the point deemed the outlier follow the same trend as the points before said outlier. While it's looking like the trend will at least level off, we don't know for sure yet. You can't definitively say, that the Wii is an outlier.



Dr.Henry_Killinger on 27 April 2014
S.Peelman said:
Max King of the Wild said:
MohammadBadir said:
"Let's just ignore the Wii because it doesn't fit right with my theory".


outliers get thrown out ofstatistics all the time. thats normal and really people who want to point to wii you are grasping 

It's only an outlier if the data-points after the point deemed the outlier follow the same trend as the points before said outlier. While it's looking like the trend will at least level off, we don't know for sure yet. You can't definitively say, that the Wii is an outlier.

The GameCube was more or less 9.5 million at the same time in its life. That is trending below it and is strong evidence that the Wii U is in fact an outlier. At least until the Wii U makes up that gap and outsells the GameCube. Something that won't be possible if the market is shrinking.



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

S.Peelman on 27 April 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
S.Peelman said:
Max King of the Wild said:
MohammadBadir said:
"Let's just ignore the Wii because it doesn't fit right with my theory".


outliers get thrown out ofstatistics all the time. thats normal and really people who want to point to wii you are grasping 

It's only an outlier if the data-points after the point deemed the outlier follow the same trend as the points before said outlier. While it's looking like the trend will at least level off, we don't know for sure yet. You can't definitively say, that the Wii is an outlier.

The GameCube was more or less 9.5 million at the same time in its life. That is trending below it and is strong evidence that the Wii U is in fact an outlier. At least until the Wii U makes up that gap and outsells the GameCube. Something that won't be possible if the market is shrinking.

So, like I said you technically can't call the Wii anything yet, because anything can still happen. Calling it things like 'a fluke' stricktly is still unfounded until there's decisive evidence.

Predictions are just that though, predictions. And I'm just being the devil's advocate here .



UltimateUnknown on 27 April 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
S.Peelman said:
Max King of the Wild said:
MohammadBadir said:
"Let's just ignore the Wii because it doesn't fit right with my theory".


outliers get thrown out ofstatistics all the time. thats normal and really people who want to point to wii you are grasping 

It's only an outlier if the data-points after the point deemed the outlier follow the same trend as the points before said outlier. While it's looking like the trend will at least level off, we don't know for sure yet. You can't definitively say, that the Wii is an outlier.

The GameCube was more or less 9.5 million at the same time in its life. That is trending below it and is strong evidence that the Wii U is in fact an outlier. At least until the Wii U makes up that gap and outsells the GameCube. Something that won't be possible if the market is shrinking.

This was pretty much what I was trying to say in the OP given the GC=9.55m and Wii U=6.25m sales figures for the same period of time both consoles have been out on the market. As someone earlier exactly calculated, the Wii U has dropped off to about 65% of GC with the above data. Incidentally, the GC had also dropped off to about 65% of N64. Even more ironnically, the N64 had also dropped to about 65% of SNES. NES to SNES was about 82%.

As the other poster pointed out, this 65% downward trend is quite interesting. That being said, the reason why I considered the Wii an anamaly (at least in terms of statistics) is because the Wii U numbers have fallen back (so far) into the EXACT same trend for the generations before the Wii. That was what was striking to me most and hence I wanted to see what others had to say about this. So far the discussion has been rather nice.



 

archbrix on 27 April 2014
RolStoppable said:
It's simple, really. Everytime Nintendo decides to fight over the existing market, their sales decline. That's because they turn off a good chunk of their audience in the process. The Wii only looks like the only anomaly, because the NES is the starting point. If the NES were in the middle, it would be an anomaly too. Both the NES and Wii were about making gaming more popular, so the hardware and software was designed accordingly. With the other four systems Nintendo didn't bother to ask how they can get more people to play video games. The most recent one, the Wii U, was all about winning third parties and the hardcore gamer back, i.e. the existing market (see E3 2011 reveal).

You can apply the same thing to the handheld market. Nintendo's sales kept rising as long as they didn't get into a fight with other companies and let them dictate how things are done. The GBA sold only 80m, but it did it in six years as opposed to the 120m of the GB/GBC in twelve years; and the DS did 150m in seven years. But then came the 3DS and Nintendo was all about going after the PSP market; suddenly it wasn't about making video games more popular, but getting a bigger chunk of the teenager demographic which was Nintendo's weakest point (and Sony's strongest). The irony is that while Nintendo succeeded at taking notable chunks of Sony's market (Monster Hunter exclusivity being an important piece of the puzzle), they are losing out everywhere else, hence the decline. That should make you realize how important the DS was. Sony was readying the PSP, yet Nintendo decided that they won't go to war. They didn't fall into that trap, even though the threat was immense.

What all this means for Nintendo's future is that any calls for Nintendo to serve third parties and hardcore gamers have it completely backwards; that will kill Nintendo. What Nintendo has to do is design systems that are like the NES, Wii, GB or DS. Mission statements that are about making more people play video games. Ironically, even if that goes against the wishes of third parties, it's actually more beneficial for them as the Wii and DS have proven. Significantly larger installed bases for Nintendo hardware inevitably result in bigger sales for third party software.

Lastly, I expected a steep decline (at least 60%) from Wii to Wii U for all of the aforementioned reasons. However, I didn't expect it to be this steep. Regardless, performing worse than the GC fits right in with Nintendo's history. Predicting the success or failure of Nintendo's next video game system should be an easy task, because all you need to do is listen to what they say when they reveal it and look if the presented software matches what they say.

Easily the best post of the thread.