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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii U sales trend may be just as expected if we look at Nintendo's home console sales.

 

Did you expect Wii U's current sales trend?

Yes 127 45.85%
 
No 95 34.30%
 
Yo Mama 49 17.69%
 
Total:271
superchunk on 27 April 2014
RolStoppable said:
It's simple, really. Everytime Nintendo decides to fight over the existing market, their sales decline. That's because they turn off a good chunk of their audience in the process. The Wii only looks like the only anomaly, because the NES is the starting point. If the NES were in the middle, it would be an anomaly too. Both the NES and Wii were about making gaming more popular, so the hardware and software was designed accordingly. With the other four systems Nintendo didn't bother to ask how they can get more people to play video games. The most recent one, the Wii U, was all about winning third parties and the hardcore gamer back, i.e. the existing market (see E3 2011 reveal).

You can apply the same thing to the handheld market. Nintendo's sales kept rising as long as they didn't get into a fight with other companies and let them dictate how things are done. The GBA sold only 80m, but it did it in six years as opposed to the 120m of the GB/GBC in twelve years; and the DS did 150m in seven years. But then came the 3DS and Nintendo was all about going after the PSP market; suddenly it wasn't about making video games more popular, but getting a bigger chunk of the teenager demographic which was Nintendo's weakest point (and Sony's strongest). The irony is that while Nintendo succeeded at taking notable chunks of Sony's market (Monster Hunter exclusivity being an important piece of the puzzle), they are losing out everywhere else, hence the decline. That should make you realize how important the DS was. Sony was readying the PSP, yet Nintendo decided that they won't go to war. They didn't fall into that trap, even though the threat was immense.

What all this means for Nintendo's future is that any calls for Nintendo to serve third parties and hardcore gamers have it completely backwards; that will kill Nintendo. What Nintendo has to do is design systems that are like the NES, Wii, GB or DS. Mission statements that are about making more people play video games. Ironically, even if that goes against the wishes of third parties, it's actually more beneficial for them as the Wii and DS have proven. Significantly larger installed bases for Nintendo hardware inevitably result in bigger sales for third party software.

Lastly, I expected a steep decline (at least 60%) from Wii to Wii U for all of the aforementioned reasons. However, I didn't expect it to be this steep. Regardless, performing worse than the GC fits right in with Nintendo's history. Predicting the success or failure of Nintendo's next video game system should be an easy task, because all you need to do is listen to what they say when they reveal it and look if the presented software matches what they say.

 
Anyone arguing against this is wrong. I used to argue with rol on this at the beginning, but facts of sales and Nintendo focus all point to this conclusion.

Nintendo needs another game console that focuses on new players. Not core.



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zorg1000 on 27 April 2014

One thing i want to point out is that each time a Nintendo console declined gen over gen ws due to a different reason.

The main reason for SNES dropping from NES was due to increased competition from Sega in America. The Genesis had a two year headstart on the SNES and was also able to release a killer app in Sonic before SNES released. Add to that the effective marketing campaign labeling Nintendo as "kiddy", which Nintendo kind of helped them out by censoring Mortal Kombat. Overall the drop in sales from NES to SNES was just under 13 million with America accounting for 10 million of that.

The reason for N64 numbers declining from SNES levels was mostly due to Japan. If you look at the top 20 SNES games in Japan it consists of 9 RPG, 6 platformers, 3 fighting, 1 racing and 1 puzzle. When Nintendo chose cartridges over CD for N64 they lost support from many third party developers. RPGs like Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Chrono, Mana were all now on Playstation and Saturn had alot of smaller RPGs as well, also the Street Fighter fanbase had moved onto 3D fighting like Tekken and Virtua Fighter which were on competitors consoles. Basically N64 was just a Nintendo box now. Overall the drop from SNES to N64 was 16 million with about 12 million happening in Japan alone.

The reason for Gamecube dropping from N64 levels was again mostly due to America. Goldeneye was a huge hit on N64 in America due to its revolutionary split screen multiplayer selling nearly 6 million and becoming the 2nd best seller in the region only behind Mario 64. When the Xbox released along with Halo it essentially stole the FPS market from Nintendo leading to Gamecube having a harsh drop in America. Overall the difference between Gamecube and N64 sales was about 12 million with 8 million coming from America.

So to recap SNES sold less than NES because they allowed Sega to cappitalize on a 2 year headstart in America, N64 saw a drop from from SNES because they lost many big third party franchises in Japan, and Gamecube did worse than N64 by losing the FPS crowd to Xbox in America.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 27 April 2014

It's kind of hilarious how desperate some gamers are to pretend the Wii didn't happen or magically doesn't count. Revisionist history at its finest.



the_dengle on 27 April 2014

Man I've never heard anyone call the Wii an anomaly before.



couchmonkey on 27 April 2014

I'm quite amazed at just how bad the fall from Wii U to Wii was, but it was easy to predict it was going to fall as soon as Nintendo unveiled the Wii U Pad. Of course I can't take any credit for such a prediction since I wasn't posting on the site at that time. ;)

What was harder to predict and almost impossible to imagine was just how far Nintendo went back to the GameCube / N64 direction with the Wii U. They literally remade the Wind Waker, in addition to a return to Pikmin and more 3D Mario...I remember looking at last year's E3 announcements and realizing that things were going to get worse before they got any better, but even then I'm still a little surprised that the sales trend swung all the way back to what was happening on the N64 and GameCube. It just goes to show how wrong that strategy is for Nintendo.



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Dr.Henry_Killinger on 27 April 2014
the_dengle said:
Man I've never heard anyone call the Wii an anomaly before.

you

Me:



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

Dr.Henry_Killinger on 27 April 2014
curl-6 said:

It's kind of hilarious how desperate some gamers are to pretend the Wii didn't happen or magically doesn't count. Revisionist history at its finest.

The Wii happened, it counted.

But it matters this much:



In this day and age, with the Internet, ignorance is a choice! And they're still choosing Ignorance! - Dr. Filthy Frank

curl-6 on 27 April 2014
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

In the above image; hardcore gamers about the fact Wii sold over 100 million systems. ;)



reggin_bolas on 27 April 2014
mii-gamer said:
The Wii was a response to the decline in home console sales - which worked out very well for them. "The Wii was a fluke" Narrative is complete bullshit - it was a deliberate, intentional and genius move to capture an untapped market. They were banking on a similar strategy again, but the execution was terribly flawed.

The next console could flop worst then the Wii U - in fact Nintendo could already be irrelevant in the home console market, however, it is impossible to predict the future - as anything can happen. When a company is pushed to the edge they will no doubt fight back - luckily -Nintendo has a few tools at their disposable such as their war chest of cash, popular IPS and more importantly talent.

Nintendo is still one of the, if not - the biggest dedicated gaming company in the world.

I personally wouldn't count them out just yet.

Hmm lets see, "fluke" - unlikely chance occurrence, especially a surprising piece of luck.

There was no chance involved in Nintendo's hardware decision. They weren't playing dice with that; it was a strategic choice. What was an unlikely chance occurence was the roaring and rampant success of the Wii hardware. Nintendo could not have predicted sales would soar as fast as they did. If they were; they would have increased production to meet early demand. 

The fact that no other Nintendo console has sold as well as the Wii suggests it was a fluke from a purely sales perspective. 

So yeah, common sense tells us the Wii was a fad or consumers would jump at the Wii U. Even if you factor in the confusing name and lack of advertising I don't think moms and grandmothers would embrace the game pad. It's a gimmicky concept that doesn't work. People find the tablet controller unwieldy and bulky. That's one of the reason I won't touch a Wii U or entertain buying one even at a low price point.

Edit: Generations from now, the Wii will be considered a textbook example of a fad. Massive ephemeral success followed by massive decline and disinterest. The Wii and Wii U is like black and white. Day and Night. 



Jay70sgamer on 27 April 2014

Nes= profitable
Super nes = profitable
N64=profitable
Wii=profitable
Wii u =more than likely profitable at end of generation
Nintendo does not care about who sells the most as long as a profit is being made......moral of story as long as nintendo as a company makes a profit on their consoles they could care less how their sales decline or how many consoles are sold that is the purpose of running a business to profit lol just saying