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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which one will make it to 10m first, Wii U or Xbox One?

 

Which one will make it to 10m first?

Wii U 485 55.62%
 
Xbox One 269 30.85%
 
I feel like punching a goldfish 117 13.42%
 
Total:871
LiquorandGunFun on 06 March 2014

xbox one, wiiu already peaked.

E3 will be good for the xbo.



 

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Ninricken on 06 March 2014

I say Wii U. Oh man this console generation the 2nd place is more interesting than the 1st



I don't hate Microsoft, I don't hate PC,
I don't prefer Sony, I don't prefer Nintendo.
...Ok, I love Nintendo but this is something about tolerance, ok?

I'm a gamer with one of the greatest hobbies and I want to share this greatness with everyone.

Soundwave on 06 March 2014
greenmedic88 said:
DevilRising said:
greenmedic88 said:
Going with the XB1.

Granted, the Wii U has some big franchise sequels coming up, but it's been on the market long enough that there really isn't any indicator that the Wii U won't be the Game Cube of the 8th gen. GC had those big franchises as well.

The XB1 really just needs to fill out its game catalog (it's been less than 3 months; be realistic here) which will improve over the first year of release and should see some strong releases in the second year.

And of course a price adjustment is all but given once MS can cut BoM costs on the current unit, whether that's by selling a Kinect-free SKU or a releasing a simplified, redesigned console. When hardware costs start high, there's a more room for adjustment on the way down, with a larger potential market at each lower tier. Look at the PS3.


Those big franchises weren't nearly as big back in the GC era. MK and SB are both much more high profile and mainstream successes now than they were then. Both upcoming Wii U titles are also much more highly anticipated, as a result, than DD and Melee were.

You're relying upon circular reasoning here.

The reason why MK and SB sold more during the Wii cycle is simply because the Wii sold multiple times more consoles than the GC.

The market for MK and SB will shrink over the Wii U cycle; these games will not sell enough consoles to maintain the same number of sales.


Yup. It's the same reason NSMBU is seeing a huge drop off too. Ditto for DKC, Wii Party U, Mario & Sonic, and Wii Fit U. All sold great on the Wii, none of them have had their mass market success translate to the Wii U. Mario 3D World will likely come in a fair bit below Mario Galaxy too.

Also Smash Brothers was plenty "huge" on the GameCube. As a franchise actually it didn't rise from the casual Wii generation nearly as much as Mario Kart (Wii Wheel) and 2D Mario did ... Smash got a much more modest bump from the Wii craze. 



Landguy on 06 March 2014
MTZehvor said:
Landguy said:
Not sure how people think the XB1 is doing bad?

It is at nearly 4 million consoles in less than 4 months and will likely be at 8 million+ by the end of the year if not more. M$ is not stupid, they will continue to throw the incentives and price drops to erase the price difference with the PS4. That and the continued megaspend on advertising will even things out. I wouldn't be surprised if they get past the WiiU by the end of November. No looking back after that.

Keep in mind that 3 million of the X-Box One's sales were launch/Christmas season sales, so this isn't a fair comparison by any stretch of the imagination. The only major "exclusive" (read: system seller) launching this year for X-Box One that we know about so far is Titanfall, meaning the the X-Box One isn't likely to rise too far above the 50-60K a week it seems to be hovering at. At that pace, it would take fiften to twenty weeks to simply add another million sales, and there are only 43 or so weeks left in the year, and roughly 39 until the end of November. 8 million sales by November's time is pretty far fetched, barring Microsoft having some unannounced big name exclusive hitting the market later this year.


Sorry for the late reply...

I didn't intend to make it sound like the XB1 would reach 8 million by November.  I meant by the end of the year.  Starting in November, the XB1 will probably be hitting 100k and by the end of November be at 250k per week.  The system price will be lower and the library will have some content.  A lot of people get hung up on exclusive games as the only system seller.  IF that was the truth, the WiiU would have double the sales by now as they pretty much only have exclusive content.  When all of the Bttlefield and COD versions come out this fall and they actually have versions that were mad for the PS4 and XB1, they will actually be system sellers by themselves.  Sure, the PS4 is more powerful than the XB1, but when the nextgen games start landing this fall, they had beeter look it or people will start to forget that whole idea.

If you think it is far fetched that M$ can sell 4 million XB1's in the last 8 months of the year, i think you need to look at the sales patterns for the 360 the year after launch.  It sold 6 million in it's first year and only sold 1.5-2  million in the first 3 months. This is the uusal time of year right now to have slow sales. Don't let the PS4 fool you, it is an anomoly.  Titanfall will help, but package pricing and price reductions are what is going to make the XB1 sell better the rest of the year.



It is near the end of the end....

greenmedic88 on 06 March 2014
Soundwave said:

Yup. It's the same reason NSMBU is seeing a huge drop off too. Ditto for DKC, Wii Party U, Mario & Sonic, and Wii Fit U. All sold great on the Wii, none of them have had their mass market success translate to the Wii U. Mario 3D World will likely come in a fair bit below Mario Galaxy too.

Also Smash Brothers was plenty "huge" on the GameCube. As a franchise actually it didn't rise from the casual Wii generation nearly as much as Mario Kart (Wii Wheel) and 2D Mario did ... Smash got a much more modest bump from the Wii craze. 

On a related note, those games should see a much higher attach rate on the Wii U than they did on the Wii, but they will still ultimately end up selling fewer units.

The install base won't be expanding drastically at any rate. Yes, the Wii U will obviously receive a bump in sales with each major release, but it's looking pretty clear that the primary audience for the Wii U is Nintendo's core consumer.



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MTZehvor on 07 March 2014
Landguy said:
MTZehvor said:
Landguy said:
Not sure how people think the XB1 is doing bad?

It is at nearly 4 million consoles in less than 4 months and will likely be at 8 million+ by the end of the year if not more. M$ is not stupid, they will continue to throw the incentives and price drops to erase the price difference with the PS4. That and the continued megaspend on advertising will even things out. I wouldn't be surprised if they get past the WiiU by the end of November. No looking back after that.

Keep in mind that 3 million of the X-Box One's sales were launch/Christmas season sales, so this isn't a fair comparison by any stretch of the imagination. The only major "exclusive" (read: system seller) launching this year for X-Box One that we know about so far is Titanfall, meaning the the X-Box One isn't likely to rise too far above the 50-60K a week it seems to be hovering at. At that pace, it would take fiften to twenty weeks to simply add another million sales, and there are only 43 or so weeks left in the year, and roughly 39 until the end of November. 8 million sales by November's time is pretty far fetched, barring Microsoft having some unannounced big name exclusive hitting the market later this year.


Sorry for the late reply...

I didn't intend to make it sound like the XB1 would reach 8 million by November.  I meant by the end of the year.  Starting in November, the XB1 will probably be hitting 100k and by the end of November be at 250k per week.  The system price will be lower and the library will have some content.  A lot of people get hung up on exclusive games as the only system seller.  IF that was the truth, the WiiU would have double the sales by now as they pretty much only have exclusive content.  When all of the Bttlefield and COD versions come out this fall and they actually have versions that were mad for the PS4 and XB1, they will actually be system sellers by themselves.  Sure, the PS4 is more powerful than the XB1, but when the nextgen games start landing this fall, they had beeter look it or people will start to forget that whole idea.

If you think it is far fetched that M$ can sell 4 million XB1's in the last 8 months of the year, i think you need to look at the sales patterns for the 360 the year after launch.  It sold 6 million in it's first year and only sold 1.5-2  million in the first 3 months. This is the uusal time of year right now to have slow sales. Don't let the PS4 fool you, it is an anomoly.  Titanfall will help, but package pricing and price reductions are what is going to make the XB1 sell better the rest of the year.

I certainly won't argue against 8 million by years end; it's just 8 million before holiday sales kicked in was ridiculously optimistic. 

That said, this is entirely my point. I'll be more than willing to give the One 8 million sales by the year's end. And then, for the sake of argument, let's say it goes nuts and absolutely catches on fire, selling 500K a month afterwards. That means that the One, with an incredibly optimistic outlook, reaches 10 million sales by the end of April of next year.

I find it incredibly difficult to believe that the Wii U, even doing as poorly as it is, will somehow not be able to pull off a mere 4.2 million sales in over a year's time, with a holiday, Mario Kart, and Smash Bros all lined up. But, hey, Nintendo's managed to epicly screw the pooch thus far, so I suppose it's not totally out of the question.



ironmanDX on 07 March 2014

Xbox One.... just.


They'll be within a mil of each other when it happens though.



Devil_Survivor on 07 March 2014

Wii U for sure because its sales are better than last year and all its big games coming, and the Halo isnt coming in 2014 most likely.



 

zorg1000 on 07 March 2014
greenmedic88 said:
Going with the XB1.

Granted, the Wii U has some big franchise sequels coming up, but it's been on the market long enough that there really isn't any indicator that the Wii U won't be the Game Cube of the 8th gen. GC had those big franchises as well.


Ur right that Wii U is likely the Gamecube of this generation but whats stopping Xbox One from being the original Xbox of this generation?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Jumpinbeans on 07 March 2014

Maybe what Nintendo need to do is realise that no one is buying their console at the current price.....so 1/2 the price take a loss on the hardware but get that back through increased software sales......

just a thought but I am sure those clever Nintendo people have run this through their calculators before.