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Soundwave said:

Yup. It's the same reason NSMBU is seeing a huge drop off too. Ditto for DKC, Wii Party U, Mario & Sonic, and Wii Fit U. All sold great on the Wii, none of them have had their mass market success translate to the Wii U. Mario 3D World will likely come in a fair bit below Mario Galaxy too.

Also Smash Brothers was plenty "huge" on the GameCube. As a franchise actually it didn't rise from the casual Wii generation nearly as much as Mario Kart (Wii Wheel) and 2D Mario did ... Smash got a much more modest bump from the Wii craze. 

On a related note, those games should see a much higher attach rate on the Wii U than they did on the Wii, but they will still ultimately end up selling fewer units.

The install base won't be expanding drastically at any rate. Yes, the Wii U will obviously receive a bump in sales with each major release, but it's looking pretty clear that the primary audience for the Wii U is Nintendo's core consumer.