Here are a few opinions to your question.

- Handheld gaming has a following. There are the ones who like games and want to game everywhere possible. Home, in the park, at work, on the bus, etc. Then there are the hardcore handheld gamer. He/she that has to game on a DEDICATED machine. Great control sticks, their favorite franchises, new IP's, etc. So in that handheld gaming will never die. NEVER. gamers are born everyday.

- There is always going to be a devide in the handheld gaming department. Those who choose a psp, or who chooses a 3DS, a Gamegear, or a NGage. Many companies have tried to enter the handheld gaming department and most have failed, so here we are for the last 2 gens with Sony vs Nintendo. So in essence, we gamers have really 2 choices. And that is where the pie starts to dish out who get the bigger slice.

- Gamers come in all ages. 2 year olds, 13 year olds, 55 year olds even 75 year olds, but the biggest market for handheld gaming is in the 12 to under age group. Easiest way to see that is looking at XMas time. Everyone wants gifts, iPods, clothes, Beats Headsets, sneakers, DVD's, you name it, all age groups are asking their santa to deliver them a gift,but the age group that demands a handheld game system from santa at christmas time are KIDS. 

- So if the biggest market for handheld gaming are kids, ranged from 12 and under, looking at both Sonys major lineup and Nintendos line up, which would a kid that age choose ? Granted, there is a market for grown ups that own a handheld also, me myself am living proof of that, but again, I have no intrest in playing Mario Kart, Yoshi Island, Donkey Kong Country, Super Mario World and Pekemon. But a younger gamer that sees that lineup and will jump for joy. 

- The psp was not marketed for the 12 and under gamer mostly. The psp was geared towards the teen to adult gamer. The tech inside, the huge screen, the crisp resolution, camera, music player, the price and most of all the game library. Sony knew that they may never capture the handheld market from Nintendo (and still they know this), but the psp was created to capture the OTHER handheld gamers. The ones that love big blockbuster games, the ones who wanted to take gran turismo with them on the train ride, the ones that wanted to play GTA in their college dorms, the ones that can afford to purchase their own handheld with their own money. 

- The psp selling 80 million plus units was a huge success for Sony, the did not beat the DS, but they did not get smashed either. It proved to them that gamers want choices. The psp also had a very huge library, and  also had great variety in genres. If you compare it to the Vita, its no contest. There are allot of very important franchises that are missing from the Vitas library. Gran Turismo, GTA, God Of War, Metal Gear Solid to name a few. When there games make their presence on the Vita, it will be a very different ballgame. 

- There are a few positives going for the Vita as of now. (1) Digital sales are huge on the Vita. Their monthly top 10 sales report are all you need to see that. (2) Sales of DLC is also a big revenue stream for the Vita.  PS+ free games guarentee that. Most if not all of the free PS+ games release with DLC options. Easy cash grab. (3) The PS4. US sales may not reflect this, but look at EU and the rest of the world. Most weeks the Vita is selling along the lines of the WII-U. When the PS4 hits Japan next week, look for Vita numbers to climb, all in part to remote play. 

- With good, there is always bad, and there is allot of that. (1) Hardware price needs to be between $150-$175. (2) Memory cards need to be lowered by approx $25 each level. A 65gig card should be priced around $30. The more memory gamers have, the more games they will purchase. (3) The big guns. 2 years in and we still dont have a Vita God Of War, Gran Turismo or GTA , (real) Ratchet & Clank, is totally unacceptable. Bundle any one of those games with a Vita priced at $200 and Vitas will fly off the shelves. 

- I think with trying to get the PS4 released it may have forced Sony to pool resources in that direction, but with that out of the way, look for Sony to focus more on the Vita this coming year. Sony will not leave the handheld market, it knows it has 2nd place all by defult, but its how much of the second place pie they intend to shoot for............... Keep on Gaming

maybe if Sony turn it into a phone or by some miracle vita tv becomes a major hit in US/EU

Call me crasy(sorry missing letter) but Vita will catch the 3DS and will sell much better.

You would like to know why ?


Simply because Vita will last forever ( i mean for 2 generations), it's the final sony handheld so sony will keep it alive as long as dev will make games for it, and since i doubt the 4DS will be more powerful, Vita will compete against it.
I tell you, Vita will become the cult handheld for 10 years.

So, crasy ?

Perhaps if Sony doubles down on the Vita and 'sells' it for free in order to saturate the market with Vitas. Also, zero licensing fees will entice developers to create games for this flourishing platform.

Anything less and I don't see it happening.

I have no doubt that vita will have a much longer lifespan than 3ds but i dont even think it has a chance. Vita would need a miracle for 50mil. I think vita will sell 25mil-35mil lifetime. In Japan it wont sell more than 15mil and thats its strongest (by far) region.

This is why i said it will be a cult because of it's longer life, it'll have bigger and bigger system seller becoming more and more popular in Japan(maybe even in europe), this is my predction

I don't get how this is comparable since the ps2 sold almost twice as much as the GBA... 

But no, I don't think that the vita will catch the 3ds. Is it possible? Technically, but I'm also doubting that I'll get struck by lightning tomorrow. Sony should be going for 30m, but even that's not likely. 

all he meant was its impossible :)

Yeah, but is was a really stupid example is what I'm saying. The ps2 sold a lot more than the GBA. A better comparison would be the xbox vs ps2. 

That will never happen because the PSV will never get the third party support it needs to get non-bad numbers and it won't get that support because it's selling awfully right now and even if the PSV got third party support, it would need the big titles like Monster Hunter and GTA, also it would need the support of Sony with titles like God of War and GT and even then, it would have a hard time closing the 35 million advantage that the 3DS has. Also there's the problem of the memory cards and that the 3DS will become cheaper with time with a huge gaming library.