If Sony re-launch the Vita in the West on the back of the PS4's success and 3DS sales continue to decline like they currently are, then their odds will definitely increase.

...From about 1% to 5%. Still something.

I don't think it is possible.

The handheld market is way more directed to kids and tweens, and Nintendo has the franchises that appeal to them: Pokemon, Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda and others).

The handheld market is shrinking fast and the gap the between Vita and 3DS sales is too big.

Best case scenario Vita has very long legs, especially in Japan due to Sony having no desire to make a successor to it.

 The Vita is irrelevant right now outside of Japan.  It's plain and simple. The Vita will catch up with the 3DS when the PS4 bombs and gets discounted.

It already has... in a parallel universe... where the ps4 is failing and the wiiU is succeeding...

But on this universe, never!

I expected this to be a Spurgeonryan thread...so yeah, you know what I think about this idea.

For the Vita to outsell the 3DS lifetime, it would need...

Exclusive Monster Hunter
Exclusive GTA
Exclusive Final Fantasy Main Line Title
Exclusive Mario Title
Call of Duty Goes Handheld Only And Exclusive To Vita
Price Drop to $20

No, the 3ds is competing with mobile devices and has proven to be strong enough to find a place on the market, this is a thing that i've been saying since the vita died (slowed down on the market), the vita's main competitor not only has sold 10 times more but it had a 7 year headstart; the thing is that everything the vita can do, never mind the PS4, the PS3 can do better! and by everything i mean library which is everything for a handheld device in this time. There's is not a single non-gaming function that you can add to a handheld that's unique, everything it could be able to do is already within the reach of your hand right now on another device.

Vita's mistake is trying to be a portable ps3, it worked for ps2(psp) because it was a novelty at the time, remember the sega cd and the virtual boy? how about the n64 and Wii U? you know what these have in common? time was against them, the first two were WAY ahead of it's time, and the later ones where WAY behind, some guy said one that ''it is as prejudicial to your product to be too advanced as it is for it to be too outdated, you have to find a balance'' what these things have in common is that their technology didn't appeal to anyone (and here i mean devs not consumers), ones for being too advanced, so much they were imperfect and unpolished, the other ones for being behind, standing on a line where there's nothing they (devs) could do there they haven't already done. Where do i want to get with this, despite what some people think ps vita is actually behind it's time, it is behind its time for what is trying to be, the 3DS tries to be just another nintendo handheld and succeeds at doing so, the great nintendo games, the usual nintendo stuff and the support the brand (DS) provides, the vita tries to be a multimeadia franken monster with some ps3 games and the ps brand slapped to it and it fails miserably because you already have a multimedia device, you already have a ps3, you already have ps+...

The vita (and Wii U for that matter, since they're the only 2 ,of the 5, that are still in production) could be fixed, could be fixed at least to not be a total failure, i'm sure it wont be, but it can't compete with the 80million seller PS3 and the PS4, and please don't try to tell me that remote play and portability (hey idiot! but that's actually what i always wanted, play my console games in the palm of my hand!!!) are good selling points for the vita because i'll remit you to the vgc front page so you can see for yourself they clearly are not, those machines (yes even the virtual boy) found a small way onto the market compared to their competitors because they were not entirely bad, it was simply not the right time.

PS4+Japan momentum could help it start outselling the 3DS weekly in the east. PS4+vita.tv could help it start outselling 3DS in the west. The gap would still be like 40 million. That's not going negative, like ever.

NO.......
I own a Vita and love it. I would never purchase a 3DS, screen quality is not as good as the Vita and the games on the Vita are more suited to me.
But Sony should be very happy with Digital Vita sales as well as knowing that the psp sold around 80 million units, so the Vita should sell around that in its cycle.......