My guess is a sales pattern probably something like this:

2014: 5 million
2015: 3.75 million
2016: 3 million ($169.99 clearance priced for fall)
2017: 2 million (she's dead Jim)

Sounds reasonable.  5 would be my prediction, but it could bottom out or pick up, I need to see more before I feel confident about that number.

I don't see it selling 5 million in 2014. Now that everybody knows 3d parties are abandoning it, and most of Nintendo's big franchises are out on it, and the general consensus is that it is a huge failure for Nintendo... I mean, -I- wouldn't recommend it to anybody and I've had it since day one.

Nintendo don't know what they're doing with their HD development and they are just trying to work as fast as they can in an environment they don't understand. If you want two consoles, and want to play the Nintendo franchises, sure you can get it. But so much of the stuff is represented on 3DS as well that you'd have to REALLY want these particular games.

Anyway regarding your doubt about Wii U selling 3 million this year, Wii U was able to sell 3.232 million in 2013. I know Wii U sales were horrible from February to October but I think Mario Kart and Smash Bros. along with other quality games like X and Donkey Kong will make Wii U sell more than 3.232 million in 2014. I guess pessimism has influenced your reasoning, but I can't really blame you for letting it after last year sales.

That sounds a lot more reasonable to me. I'm banking on about 4.5 million or so myself.

Even 2013 beat 3 million.

I don't know. Even though 4.5 million is only 1.268 million more than 2013's sales, that's a 39.23% increase of 2013 sales. With the small momentum Wii U has now, this will be really impressive but also a little unbelievable.

If the Wii U can't hit 5 million this year, then it's never hitting 5 million for a year ever.

They have to hit 5 million this year to have any chance of getting to 20 million LTD (sadly its come to that).

don't know what I predicted in Seece's thread.
Something along the lines of 4.5m.
3m is definitely too low.

I guess that's where I'm coming from - I think that, in much of 2013, people didn't realize how unsupported the Wii U would be. I think most of its sales will be in the holiday season, as presents for kids by parents who don't know and don't care about its woes, and that a lot of the normal gaming audience who would make up its sales (as well as the trendy audience of people who made up a lot of Wiis sales) just won't get it now that they know it's a bust.

If you think articles about people in Nursing homes playing bowling helped get a lot of people to buy Wiis (hint: they totally did) then why wouldn't you think a ton of articles about Nintendo losing money and the Wii U being a failure are going to talk people out of it?