I'm predicting Patcher and everyone agreeing with him will be sorely incorrect.
Also, why does everyone forget that there is something called the Holiday Season? It doesn't need to sell 250k a month. It just needs a couple strong months and a strong Holiday. That's it.
| VitroBahllee said: I feel you, but that 2013 was bad before the narrative had become the Wii U was bust and before it had any current-gen opposition. Now, PS4 and X1 are out and articles in even mainstream journalistic sources are like 'Nintendo Needs to Fix the Wii U' or 'Nintendo Loses Metric Crapton of Money Over Failing Wii U.' If it was at 'such a pathetically low level' when it had no competition and not everyone realized it was going to get no 3rd party support, then why would it suddenly blossom now that those huge advantages are gone? |
People realized that the Wii U wasn't going to get good third party support awhile ago. It's not something that people just started noticing.
| NintendoPie said: I'm predicting Patcher and everyone agreeing with him will be sorely incorrect. Also, why does everyone forget that there is something called the Holiday Season? It doesn't need to sell 250k a month. It just needs a couple strong months and a strong Holiday. That's it. |
250k a month Average, not in real numbers.
NintendoPie said:
People realized that the Wii U wasn't going to get good third party support awhile ago. It's not something that people just started noticing. |
It came out November of 2012. I think a good chunk of 2013 went by before it was crystal clear.
| Nem said: You have to remember that sales get a considerable push towards the christmas season. 3mil sounds like a sensible (though conservative) prediction. If it does better it will depend on the momentum that is created. If they chain well the releases of MArio Kart, Smash and X, they could get some traction going. |
Its not really sensible when the WiiU has sold more in the starting weeks worldwide this year than it did last, Smash and Kart are also coming out.
The sad thing is that wii u won't sell a lot more than his prediction. Damn you Pachter! 4 millions seems pretty achievable though.
t3mporary_126 said:
|
That's the thing though; we haven't seen such a low baseline in newer times so even a rather small increase measured in units will make a huge difference in percentages. A 40% increase on over 16 million is a whole lot more difficult than a similar percentage on a number as small as 3-3.2 million. A decent Q4 alone could drive this increase, and it is slightly up yoy even now. With another price cut and an improved October and November, as well as overall increases through the year, this should be doable.
As for not seeing the low level of support coming; it was obvious all along, and I factored that in a long time, for my part.
3 Million seems spot on. Wii U is already over saturated. Most hardcore Nintendo fans already own a Wii U
| VitroBahllee said: It came out November of 2012. I think a good chunk of 2013 went by before it was crystal clear. |
Once the games draught hit (a month or so into 2013), people took notice. Even still, people don't buy Nintendo's systems for third party games. Even on the largely popular Wii, Nintendo was the lead in top sales.
Also, I know you're talking about average. But, that's not a good way to predict YoY/cumulative sales.
3m is not a ridiculous prediction. I would say 4m+ myself but 3m is definitely a possibility.
The sad thing is that it would most likely be going further downhill every year after.
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