I'm looking at 3DS' declining sales YoY in those Media Create threads ... something's gotta give there. 3DS would have had almost 5 year lifecycle if it launches in fall 2015 ... considerably longer than the 3 1/2 years the GBA got, and GBA was still around until well into 2006 at least, it's not like it just dissapeared because Nintendo launched the DS. 

Quite the contrary I think Nintendo's next portable will be more of a fusion device ... it will run Wii U ports and also first run 3DS titles too. So 3DS devleopment will continue for a while. Just like the iPhone model, software support of new games for say an iPhone 5 doesn't die the moment iPhone 5s comes out ... that's the model Nintendo is going to embrace long term and we'll see it starting with the new Nintendo portable. 

In fact, I don't think the Nintendo portable will initially have many original games for it ... it will largely just be a fusion player that lets you play an extremely wide variety of games from the Wii/Wii U/DS/3DS and Virtual Console library from day 1. Over time as the Wii U/3DS naturally die out, then you'll see more original software. 

When Twilight Princess was announced, so too was the GC successor (the Wii).   The launch period of Twilight Princess and the Wii were already pretty close so it made sense to port it over as a launch title.  Especially given how easy it was to port given the similarities in hardware architecture.

Zelda U was announced (unofficially) already and a 3DS successor is most certainly not hitting stores in 2015.  That's little more than 4 years on store shelves.

I also doubt the next portable will have an architecture similar enough to Wii U to make a downward port worthwhile.  Don't forget that TP was up ported, not down ported. 

I see. I guess it could work that way, but I really don't know about that fusion handheld, is Nintendo willing to go in that direction? Iwata told us they were going to have similar architecture for both HH and HC, and that it will follow the Wii U's path, so maybe...

And from a business perspective it makes a lot of sense to put one of the biggest franchise at a handheld/console launch, but it's always hard to predict Nintendo's next move so I give your prediction the benefit of the doubt, until E3 2014 that is.

We are reaching the point where by fall 2015 even Nintendo will have access to widely mass produced mobile chips that are capable of generating Wii U like graphics at an affordable price. By then even Vita will be dated tech, Nintendo will be able to get something 4-5x more powerful with 2GB of RAM under the hood and still be able to sell it for under $250. 

3DS sales will be in major decline by 2015 btw. Just watch and see how it plays out this year, it will be like clockwork. Nintendo no longer can just dictate how long consumers should remain interested in something, they are going to have to adapt with a fast moving mobile industry or be left behind. Simple as that. 

There is no reason why Nintendo should release a new handheld so soon. The 3DS is running fine. If Zelda U is a hybrid-release including a handheld, this handheld will be the 3DS, like the hybrid release for MH3U or Smash Bros. But I don't really believe that for Zelda. No facts attached, it's just my opinion that Zelda U will not be a hybrid release.

Why do you think Nintendo will release a new handheld so soon? I could understand an early release of WiiUs successor, but of the 3DS?

Ninendo will probably focus on their new platform for now: Quality of Life, whatever this is.

I think though the next Nintendo handheld is maybe not going to be what Nintendo fans are used to -- it's not a replacement for the 3DS/Wii U more than it is a complimentary new way to enjoy 3DS/Wii U software in a new hardware format, which will after a few years phase out the 3DS completely (but it will be a process of years). Just like an iPhone 5s doesn't mean an iPhone 5 (or even 4) is made irrelevant or "dead". 

I think largely speaking the next Nintendo portable's initial game offerings will be Wii U and 3DS games releasing through 2015-2017 along with Nintendo legacy games (VC/DS/Wii). 

It won't be the old Nintendo model where as soon as new Nintendo platform comes out, the old one is basically put on death watch and all software development shifts to a new hardware platform starting with a userbase of 0 and requiring years of effort on Nintendo's part to build the userbase back up.

I think Nintendo has recognized this formula doesn't work very well for them anymore, the iOS/Android formula of a constant library of games that can be played on a wide variety of hardware is the way to go. Iwata has said so himself.

The availability and cost of the tech is irrielevant if the architectures are vastly different to the point that it makes it difficult to port.

But even that's beyond the point.  The main point is that we will not have a new Nintendo portable console to succeed the 3DS in 2015.  I know want to poitn to the short life of the GBA but if you recall, the DS was not released as a successor to the GBA but rather a "3rd pillar" in their platform strategy.  GBA's short life came a result of the ability of the DS to be a GBA itself along with vastly suprior feature sets and games.   GBA was cut short because of the unexpected success of the very unconventional and risky DS taking over as the portable of choice. 

While there is some slight YoY downward trending of the 3DS, it is by no means enough to warrant the need for a new portable device so soon.

I very much doubt a successor to 3DS will release in 2015. Holiday 2016 is the earliest I could see it happen.

The 360 architecture is completely different from say the PS4 or Wii U ... developers have managed to port to completely different architectures before, Nintendo has a new R&D department, time for them to step up and figure that out. 

I think what you guys are missing with a new Nintendo portable is it's going to be a bit of a mind f*ck for some Nintendo fans because it's not the typical Nintendo platform transition that you guys are used to. 

The next Nintendo handheld will start a new era of Nintendo hardware transitions that is not going to be like the past at all, it will transition Nintendo to being more like Apple/Google ... the old way is finished. 

Really it's kind of an insane business model to reboot your userbase completely to 0 every 5-6 years and have to start from ground zero, especially in Nintendo's case since they have to do everything on their platforms with little 3rd party support ... it just doesn't make sense anymore and I think Iwata clearly said that in the investor's briefing last week. 

A new Nintendo portable platform will *help* the 3DS ... not deter it. It will let a company like Capcom release Monster Hunter 5 on 3DS in 2016, even if its sales have started to definitely decline by then, because they can also release the same game on new Nintendo platform in HD and get extra sales that way. Win win for everyone.

Maybe.