Now do Gamecube vs Xbox.

Wii U is just over 5m. PS4 is at 4m and currently sold out meaning they haven't met initial demand yet.

Wii U has not stated SSB4 or MK8 are launching in Q1 yet.

Thus, I'd have to say PS4's momentum will carry it past Wii U before Q1 ends as I don't expect Wii U to carry very significant numbers not what xmas has past.

Bolded: Not entirely in disagreement, I really don't have much interest on a personal level any more, it's more the study of the market that appeals to me. And the forums, of course.

Italic: Then again, the PS2 was pretty much carried on 3rd parties as well, as was the PS1. Nintendo are the only modern console manufacturer that relies so heavily upon 1st parties to move hardware. The fact that about 40% of their entire software total on the Wii was/is 1st party is what strikes me as weird, it's a dangerous game and they better hope that their attach rates keep staying right where they are or even go up.

My bad, I did mean 1st party software.  And the PS3 did have alot of good 1st party games in terms of the games themselves but in terms of sales they had a ton of flops.    Resistance 3, MAG, Motorstorm Pacific Rift,Socom,Hot Shots Golf,R&C All for One,Modnation Racers, All the MLB Games, Playstation Battle Royale, Twisted Metal, and Little Big Planet Karting all failed to crack 1.5 million.  The only games to get over 4 million for Sony were Resistance 1, God of War 3, The Uncharteds,LBP1 and GT5.     I actually want Sony to start doing better 1st party software wise because this is exactly why Sega really went out of business.   The Genesis sold 30 million consoles but only 6 1st party games cracked 1 million while the SNES sold only 19 million more consoles but Nintendo had 20 games sell atleast 1 million, not to mention they had 10 sell atleast 3 million.  Sony + Nintendo should always be the core of gaming.

The key for Nintendo though and has been forever is that all of that 1st Party software is money that comes right back to them.  I'm not really sure how much Sony/Microsoft gets from 3rd Party developers in terms of a cut but the Gamecube pretty much proved that Nintendo can completly flop in terms of hardware but since all the top games are theirs, they will still turn a profit.  I cant really say the same for Sony.    The Vita is pretty much dead because no one wanted Sonys software and there was no GTA to carry the console for them.   I think its much more dangerous to rely on other companies to carry your console then to be able to develop all of your own games.

Are you sperating GC from handhelds ? Nin was profitable but how much of it was due to gameboy.

Yeah, they made great games but most of them didn't get the sales they deserve. Looks like The Last of Us is easily gonna pass 4 million though. Probably already has if vgchartz has it undertracked like God of War 3. Edit: I think you are also forgetting that even if a game doesn't sell a ton it doesn't mean the game isn't profitable for them. The MLB games for example, they don't sell a crap ton but they still make em constantly so they obviously make them money. Heavy Rain isn't first party but it still made a ton of profits for them.

Marchish maybe.

PS4 sales are going to drop more slowly than Wii U sales, but supply constraints, particularly as Sony prepares to launch in another region, may keep PS4 from making up too much ground. PS4 may be able to gain something like 500K during January depending on supply, Nintendo's marketing, and whether or not they decide to advertise stuff like Wii Fit or (better yet) make a bundle for it. So I guess it'll be about a 700K difference by then.

February is Japan's launch. It will probably do about 700K there, but the question is how this will effect supply in other regions. On the Wii U side of things, DKCR will push some units but won't be a system seller. Wii U should still be doing well in Japan, and the Wii U might have a big supply advantage in the States, plus the Wii U will have DK plus maybe some lingering Wii Fit U sales if Nintendo decides marketing is a good idea. PS4 will have few major titles (Drive Club?) and launch buzz will be dying down. EU is obviously an auto win for Sony unless Nintendo pulls off some magic. So, another 3-400K chipped away maybe, leaving Nintendo with a 300K or so lead.

What happens in March will determine if and when PS4 will pass the Wii U. If Nintendo can get MK8 out by then it can slow the progress significantly. Honestly, the demo seemed basically complete with the exception of different tracks and battle modes, so I think MK8 could be out on March 21st. Sony has Infamous and Ground Zeroes, but Titanfall may help the XBone and hurt the PS4. Infamous will be, at best, as big as DK. With Mario Kart, Nintendo can at slow the rate of PS4 progress to about 200K and might be able to actually gain as much as 100K.

After that, it's anyone's guess. We don't really know what either company has planned. It's safe to say Nintendo will have more titles as launch years do tend to be slow. Smash Bros in Q2 would be huge for Nintendo, and can keep them ahead through E3, but I would guess Smash will be August at the earliest. A Wii Sports physical release seems likely, and Bayonetta seems ripe for a may release where its competition won't be too fierce.

Of course, Nintendo's announced games will, at best, keep Nintendo treading water. If the currently announced games are all that there are, Nintendo will be overcome by September, and that's an incredibly optimistic prediction. Nintendo simply needs to find their next casual hit, and if they can't do that, the Wii U will be a niche console for Nintendo fans.

Q2 2014 sometime in early April.

First week of March 2014.