See, that's why I don't understand why Nintendo is being so adamant about dropping the price for the Wii U. The way I see it is, the more units they put on the streets, the more people will buy their software. Not to mention the fact that more people will also be buying 3rd parties software, which in return might bring more 3rd parties to develop for your console. And the funny thing is that they already tried that strategy with the 3DS and it worked like a charm so.. I just  don't get it.

turned out to be a smart move for him

Q1 2014. Unless you're in denial, you know that's when it will happen, especially after Sony revealed how many have sold already. It'll be by the end of February, if not earlier. In an earlier post on a different thread I said by the end of February probably, but atleast by March. Definitely by the end of February now.

PS4 will reach 5M by january, then Wii U will be at 5,5-5,6M. So it will obviously happen in February, the day of the japan release or a week before.

Given adjustments and post-Xmas respective sales drops, I must bring forward my prediction:

Q2 2014.

Next DK surely won't be enough to allow Wii U to resist very long and true Ninty blockbusters will arrive too late, but PS4 shortages + having to stockpile it for Japan launch + DK boost for Wii U could still allow the latter to resist until after 31 March. Not granted, but not impossible, if Ninty wakes up and starts marketing Wii U better (well doing it worse would be really difficult  ).

At this rate. Week ending March 15th. PS4 should be a few hundred ks above Wii U (and over 2.1 million above X1: just throwing this bit)

the second week after it is released in Japan.

It could happen if DK and any possible Q1 offer allow it to resist another 5 weeks. It's quite borderline, one additional factor in favour of Wii U could be Sony stockpiling PS4 for the best case scenario (PS2 level numbers) of Japan launch, to be sure it will fill as much gap as possible from Wii U there during the launch window. This would prevent the gap in the rest of the world from decreasing too much in January.
Another factor is that it would be really insane if Ninty didn't do anything to keep Wii U afloat. Wii HW sales are inexorably fading away and its SW sales will slowly but inexorably drop too, even if turning Wii U into a winner is impossible, Ninty must do everything it can to turn it into a decent competitor, at least fighting for 2nd place and giving up the 1st as late as possible.

Depends if they can keep up 1 million a month supply, they get the system together that fast, it's just the chip production that could hold it back, although yields should be improving all the time and they weren't bad to begin with.

If production is fine and they aren't holding too much stock for Japan, then the 1st/2nd vgchartz update early February, if not, then the update immediately BEFORE the japan release.

EDIT: just to let you know, at least one retailer in the UK has a pre-order wait till march of standard PS4.