Predict: When will PS4 overtake WiiU? UPDATE: Overtaken February 22nd!

[Alby_da_Wolf]

pezus said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

pezus said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:
Q3 2014.

Given adjustments and post-Xmas respective sales drops, I must bring forward my prediction:

Q2 2014.

Still too late

Don't you mean month #2?

Next DK surely won't be enough to allow Wii U to resist very long and true Ninty blockbusters will arrive too late, but PS4 shortages + having to stockpile it for Japan launch + DK boost for Wii U could still allow the latter to resist until after 31 March. Not granted, but not impossible, if Ninty wakes up and starts marketing Wii U better (well doing it worse would be really difficult  ).

But the shortages still allow for at least 1m+ sales per month. WiiU would be lucky to reach 500k in January and then in Feb and March it'll get even worse. The difference right now is less than a million! This week PS4 outsold WiiU by over 150k. Then you factor in the Japan launch and I have no idea how you reach Q2!

It could happen if DK and any possible Q1 offer allow it to resist another 5 weeks. It's quite borderline, one additional factor in favour of Wii U could be Sony stockpiling PS4 for the best case scenario (PS2 level numbers) of Japan launch, to be sure it will fill as much gap as possible from Wii U there during the launch window. This would prevent the gap in the rest of the world from decreasing too much in January.
Another factor is that it would be really insane if Ninty didn't do anything to keep Wii U afloat. Wii HW sales are inexorably fading away and its SW sales will slowly but inexorably drop too, even if turning Wii U into a winner is impossible, Ninty must do everything it can to turn it into a decent competitor, at least fighting for 2nd place and giving up the 1st as late as possible.