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Forums - Sales - Can the Xbone dethrone the PS4 in the USA?

superhippy420 said:
Gamecube had Mario,Pikmin,Starfox,Metroid,Zelda,Luigis Mansion, and Smash Bros year one and no one cared.
superhippy420 said:
Wii U has Pikmin and Mario. If the others come out and its still a flop I would be shocked.

Why the difference?, If people didn't care about those games for the Gamecube, why would they suddenly do so for the WiiU, you're not making any sense.



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Yep but I expect it to be a bit of a Yo-Yo to begin with until the consoles settle down. could go either way but I wouldn't be surprised if xbox one came out on top.



man-bear-pig said:
deskpro2k3 said:
it can be real close. I remember Gamestop reported that over 2 million customers are still waiting to pre order ps4

That sounds really hard to believe...I mean 2 million waiting to pre-order from 1 retailer just sounds ridiculous. Or is this some market research they did to gauge the demand for the PS4? If so, then it basically just means that there's 2 million die-hards waiting on the PS4...which isn't really THAT impressive, there's probs 2m Xbox fans who've yet to buy an Xbone too


Here are the sources:

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/11/21/gamestop-23-million-playstation-4-units-on-backorder

http://www.destructoid.com/gamestop-still-needs-to-fill-2-3-million-ps4-pre-orders-266197.phtml



Frequency said:
superhippy420 said:
Gamecube had Mario,Pikmin,Starfox,Metroid,Zelda,Luigis Mansion, and Smash Bros year one and no one cared.
superhippy420 said:
Wii U has Pikmin and Mario. If the others come out and its still a flop I would be shocked.

Why the difference?, If people didn't care about those games for the Gamecube, why would they suddenly do so for the WiiU, you're not making any sense.


Its not the only factor but releasing all of those games at once was foolish.  On top of that they were all aimed towards the core gamer, which is why many gamers in the online community consider Gamecube to be a great console, even though it said poorly.   Mario Kart DS, Wii, and 7 have all outsold the gamecube one by alot, people just did'nt like Double Dash.   The bottom line is that the Wii U is selling a little less than the Gamecube was and it does'nt even have close to all of its games yet.  If the games come out and sales still stay where they are then its a legit argument but until then its an unever comparison.



The problem of One in not in NA(where it will sell more), is in the rest of the world, where PS4 will sell a lot more. = worldwide PS4 will always be ahead once both console are available in Japan also. So, One better in NA in the long run I believe, and PS4 better in the rest of the world, simple as that.



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MoHasanie said:

Well there's no point in comparing them so early cause everyone knew they would both sell out at launch. The real test will come after January and that is where I expect to PS4 to widen the gap.


I agree.  Even though they are still hard for some people to get, the fact that they are selling for retail on ebay during christmas season is not a good sign for 2014's sales.   Theres zero software to move consoles, and the one game that had a chance was Titanfall, and some genius at Microsoft decided that it should be released on Xbox 360 as well as Xbox One.  PS4 does'nt have any games to move it either, but just the rollover holiday demand will keep their sales up until atleast March. By April Mario Kart 8 will be out and thats when things this gen are going to get really interesting.



superhippy420 said:
Frequency said:
superhippy420 said:
Gamecube had Mario,Pikmin,Starfox,Metroid,Zelda,Luigis Mansion, and Smash Bros year one and no one cared.
superhippy420 said:
Wii U has Pikmin and Mario. If the others come out and its still a flop I would be shocked.

Why the difference?, If people didn't care about those games for the Gamecube, why would they suddenly do so for the WiiU, you're not making any sense.


Its not the only factor but releasing all of those games at once was foolish.  On top of that they were all aimed towards the core gamer, which is why many gamers in the online community consider Gamecube to be a great console, even though it said poorly.   Mario Kart DS, Wii, and 7 have all outsold the gamecube one by alot, people just did'nt like Double Dash.   The bottom line is that the Wii U is selling a little less than the Gamecube was and it does'nt even have close to all of its games yet.  If the games come out and sales still stay where they are then its a legit argument but until then its an unever comparison.

So what youre saying is, a system that launches with plenty of games, and a steady flow of decent games afterwards, "is destined to sell worse", than a console that launches and pretty much makes early adopters wait a year, only for most of the games they want still to be 6-9 months away?

You still arent making any sense, please just stop.



superhippy420 said:
Frequency said:
superhippy420 said:
Gamecube had Mario,Pikmin,Starfox,Metroid,Zelda,Luigis Mansion, and Smash Bros year one and no one cared.
superhippy420 said:
Wii U has Pikmin and Mario. If the others come out and its still a flop I would be shocked.

Why the difference?, If people didn't care about those games for the Gamecube, why would they suddenly do so for the WiiU, you're not making any sense.


Its not the only factor but releasing all of those games at once was foolish.  On top of that they were all aimed towards the core gamer, which is why many gamers in the online community consider Gamecube to be a great console, even though it said poorly.   Mario Kart DS, Wii, and 7 have all outsold the gamecube one by alot, people just did'nt like Double Dash.   The bottom line is that the Wii U is selling a little less than the Gamecube was and it does'nt even have close to all of its games yet.  If the games come out and sales still stay where they are then its a legit argument but until then its an unever comparison.


So they're somehow gonna tap into the market constant with the usual suspects despite the console having an immense lack of appeal and planning and no casual audience to fall back on? A handful of games that sell great does not equal software breadth. You claim that 3DS vs Vita situation taught you so much and you say that one can't use holiday sales as an indicator for how well a console does the rest of the year (which is something I agree with, of course). I just wonder; do you know what is causing the Vita to fail? Do you want me to tell you? Have you seen all the people who are raving about the Wii U's rise in weekly sales in the holiday season, citing this as a sign that it is making a comeback? No small amount of people did already. Do you understand what the casual audience are up to and what Nintendo attempted do accomplish with the Gamepad?

You say you're a business major but you don't seem to understand the basics of appeal, markets and demographics, which strikes me as very odd. One can assume that there will be a yoy rise next year, a fairly good one even but one has to question the future of a console that managed a global baseline of under 30k per week for a several weeks and an actual decrease in weekly numbers in Japan following a price cut and Zelda Windwaker HD. People see the huge rise only, "wow, from 3k to almost 50k!!!" Impressive. You know what's not impressive? Managing to sink to 3k to begin with in your first full year on the market and managing to still only hover below the 50k mark in the beginning of December, all this facing competition that is either 7-8 years old or non-existant. With the holiday sales being as incredibly poor as they are and the console likely being overtracked in both NA and Europe, can you really see a good Q1 and Q2 next year and do honestly believe that, like I mentioned, the usual suspects will somehow make the Wii U relevant all of the sudden?

NES: Market constant (forced) and broad appeal, good sales

SNES: Market constant, decent competition and good appeal, decent sales

N64: No market constant (near complete loss of 3rd parties in the PS transition), niche appeal and heavy competition, poor sales

Gamecube: No market constant, massive competition and niche appeal, very poor sales

Wii: Partial market constant (in the casual sphere), good competition, incredible casual appeal, very good sales but a highly irregular sales curve (straight up and straight down)

Wii U: No market constant, niche appeal, potentially big competition, sales...? You finish it if you want but I think you see where this is going.

If you still believe in some massive comeback in the near future, I can only assume that you're not actually attending school, or at the very least that you're fond of sleeping in class. It will rise, there's no possible way it could do down, but it won't matter, even a 100% yoy increase would lead to meager sales at this stage. One has to assume that either both the One and the PS4 will have to fall hard on their asses (as in below 30 million lifetime on their asses) or the Wii U will need an unprecedented 200 or even a 300% yoy increase to become relevant (depending on year end numbers, at this stage it's looking like a 300% increase in 2014 would net about 12 million sales for the cy, perhaps less).

So which is it? Will the other two fail or will the Wii U suddenly rise due to the same franchises they employed since 1983? Stylizing the problem into; more games equals good sales by default shows a complete lack of understanding of most things concerning sales and markets. How did the PS3 manage almost 8 million in its first full year on the market with a ludicrous price tag, decent competition and a staggered launch? Games? Yeah, "Lair" and other greats were paramount to these numbers. I'm awfully sorry, but no amount of Mario or Zelda or even price cuts can salvage this operation at this point; the Wii U has no base appeal and that is its biggest problem by far. You could put a huge pot of gold in a house that no one wanted, that had a horrible location and crooked walls and floors and that no one knew existed, it wouldn't matter, no one would claim that gold. Adding sports rims and air-condition and leather seats to a Toyota Yaris won't suddenly make it appeal to customers who never even considered it at all before, driving around in more comfortable, spacious and advanced cars.



deskpro2k3 said:
man-bear-pig said:
deskpro2k3 said:
it can be real close. I remember Gamestop reported that over 2 million customers are still waiting to pre order ps4

That sounds really hard to believe...I mean 2 million waiting to pre-order from 1 retailer just sounds ridiculous. Or is this some market research they did to gauge the demand for the PS4? If so, then it basically just means that there's 2 million die-hards waiting on the PS4...which isn't really THAT impressive, there's probs 2m Xbox fans who've yet to buy an Xbone too


Here are the sources:

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/11/21/gamestop-23-million-playstation-4-units-on-backorder

http://www.destructoid.com/gamestop-still-needs-to-fill-2-3-million-ps4-pre-orders-266197.phtml


"it's not immediately clear if GameStop is arriving at the 2.3 million backorder number via actual orders or just prospective sales in general." - Sounds to me like its the latter. @Frequency, indubitably.

Since Xb one never had the lead in USA it can't re-take it, it can only take the lead.

Far too early to say anyone has the throne, PS4 has the lead after less than one month.on the market. But the only week PS4 has outsold Xb one is the week that Xb one wasn't on sale. The only question is whether the reason is supply or demand. Various pieces of evidence suggests the reason is supply, but one can't be sure until supply increases and there is a dramatic rise in sales.

I think aside from Xb one's launch week if PS4 had the supply it would have outsold Xb one. So I think if Sony gets more units into the USA then Xb one won't take the lead any time soon, or possibly ever.



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