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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

This is practically mi vision for next gen so I completely agree with you.



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Boy do I have some good predictions for y'all. I'll write my explanation point form and in as simple a terms as possible to avoid tl;dr.

1. There are currently 260 million consoles sold this gen. Maybe that reaches 300 million when all's said and done.

2. 80 million of that 300 million are casuals who won't be buying consoles next gen. That's old people and women who bought their consoles to play wii fit or go virtual bowling. For those wondering how I came up with 80 million...That's half the Wii buyers (50 million) and the rest between Kinect and PS move. Not trying to offend anyone here, just explaining the process of my upcoming predictions.

3. So now we have 220 million 7th gen buyers who will be buying again next gen. And let's go with a nice even 30 million increase in the overall market for next gen (6th to 7th gen was 35ish million).

4. K so hope you followed me to this point. I think 250 million consoles will be sold in the 8th gen between PS4, XB1, and Wii U.


Division of the 250 million console market:

PS4 - 150-160 million (around 60-65% of the market). For the reasons listed in the OP, mainly the $100 price advantage over the XB1. Bear in mind, the PS2 controlled 75% of the market, so don't act like I've gone full retard for saying it could hit 60%.

XB1 - 55ish million (Low 20%'s of the market). Many will buy it based on MS loyalty, mainly in America. But will struggle to sell in Europe, and won't even be a factor in Japan.

Wii U - 40ish million (15-20%). Will only sell as well as I'm predicting due to early release (existing sales) and upcoming $100 price drop when PS4/XB1 hit the market.


Yeah call me nuts or whatever, but if this gen plays out the way I think it will, the PS4 will outsell it's grandpa, the PS2.

 

Edit: And if you think my point #2 is retarded, and there aren't 80 million people who bought consoles this gen that won't next gen...then just ignore my sales guesses...but keep the percentages the same for whatever YOU think the global market will be next gen. You feel me?



Marks said:

Boy do I have some good predictions for y'all. I'll write my explanation point form and in as simple a terms as possible to avoid tl;dr.

1. There are currently 260 million consoles sold this gen. Maybe that reaches 300 million when all's said and done.

2. 80 million of that 300 million are casuals who won't be buying consoles next gen. That's old people and women who bought their consoles to play wii fit or go virtual bowling. For those wondering how I came up with 80 million...That's half the Wii buyers (50 million) and the rest between Kinect and PS move. Not trying to offend anyone here, just explaining the process of my upcoming predictions.

3. So now we have 220 million 7th gen buyers who will be buying again next gen. And let's go with a nice even 30 million increase in the overall market for next gen (6th to 7th gen was 35ish million).

4. K so hope you followed me to this point. I think 250 million consoles will be sold in the 8th gen between PS4, XB1, and Wii U.


Division of the 250 million console market:

PS4 - 150-160 million (around 60-65% of the market). For the reasons listed in the OP, mainly the $100 price advantage over the XB1. Bear in mind, the PS2 controlled 75% of the market, so don't act like I've gone full retard for saying it could hit 60%.

XB1 - 55ish million (Low 20%'s of the market). Many will buy it based on MS loyalty, mainly in America. But will struggle to sell in Europe, and won't even be a factor in Japan.

Wii U - 40ish million (15-20%). Will only sell as well as I'm predicting due to early release (existing sales) and upcoming $100 price drop when PS4/XB1 hit the market.


Yeah call me nuts or whatever, but if this gen plays out the way I think it will, the PS4 will outsell it's grandpa, the PS2.

 

Edit: And if you think my point #2 is retarded, and there aren't 80 million people who bought consoles this gen that won't next gen...then just ignore my sales guesses...but keep the percentages the same for whatever YOU think the global market will be next gen. You feel me?



i think ps4 is waaaaaay to high!This gen wont be as big as last cuz of those $1 games/etc. Look wat it did to handheld! PSP+ DS= 235mil-240mil wen its done. Vita+3DS= less than 40mil currently! But hey its your prediction, good luck with it



tbone51 said:
Marks said:

 



i think ps4 is waaaaaay to high!This gen wont be as big as last cuz of those $1 games/etc. Look wat it did to handheld! PSP+ DS= 235mil-240mil wen its done. Vita+3DS= less than 40mil currently! But hey its your prediction, good luck with it


Haha yeah it definitely depends on the growth or shrinkage of the market. I believe in my percentages but I just took a wild guess at the size of the console market. 

I'm not holding my breath haha this is actually the first time I've put any thought into 8th gen predictions. :)



Marks said:
tbone51 said:
Marks said:

 



i think ps4 is waaaaaay to high!This gen wont be as big as last cuz of those $1 games/etc. Look wat it did to handheld! PSP+ DS= 235mil-240mil wen its done. Vita+3DS= less than 40mil currently! But hey its your prediction, good luck with it


Haha yeah it definitely depends on the growth or shrinkage of the market. I believe in my percentages but I just took a wild guess at the size of the console market. 

I'm not holding my breath haha this is actually the first time I've put any thought into 8th gen predictions. :)



then my prediction for 3ds is 120mil+ O.o that 2DS might push it lol, seriously i think 80mil-90mil is a safe bet but dont be surprised if it went that high up :P

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I think the PS4 will exceed 200 million sales, and the XBone and Wii U will each have about 50 million sales.



Love and tolerate.

I think your predictions are a bit too positive for PS4.

Basically if everything goes Sony's way then your %'s will be right otherwise not.

And I dont see MS letting Sony walk away with 65 - 75 % of marketshare....

They will drop Kinect if they have to, they will cut price, the will buy exclusivity etc. MS wont let Sony dominate 2/3's of the market.



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Marks said:

Boy do I have some good predictions for y'all. I'll write my explanation point form and in as simple a terms as possible to avoid tl;dr.

1. There are currently 260 million consoles sold this gen. Maybe that reaches 300 million when all's said and done.

2. 80 million of that 300 million are casuals who won't be buying consoles next gen. That's old people and women who bought their consoles to play wii fit or go virtual bowling. For those wondering how I came up with 80 million...That's half the Wii buyers (50 million) and the rest between Kinect and PS move. Not trying to offend anyone here, just explaining the process of my upcoming predictions.

3. So now we have 220 million 7th gen buyers who will be buying again next gen. And let's go with a nice even 30 million increase in the overall market for next gen (6th to 7th gen was 35ish million).

4. K so hope you followed me to this point. I think 250 million consoles will be sold in the 8th gen between PS4, XB1, and Wii U.


Division of the 250 million console market:

PS4 - 150-160 million (around 60-65% of the market). For the reasons listed in the OP, mainly the $100 price advantage over the XB1. Bear in mind, the PS2 controlled 75% of the market, so don't act like I've gone full retard for saying it could hit 60%.

XB1 - 55ish million (Low 20%'s of the market). Many will buy it based on MS loyalty, mainly in America. But will struggle to sell in Europe, and won't even be a factor in Japan.

Wii U - 40ish million (15-20%). Will only sell as well as I'm predicting due to early release (existing sales) and upcoming $100 price drop when PS4/XB1 hit the market.


Yeah call me nuts or whatever, but if this gen plays out the way I think it will, the PS4 will outsell it's grandpa, the PS2.

 

Edit: And if you think my point #2 is retarded, and there aren't 80 million people who bought consoles this gen that won't next gen...then just ignore my sales guesses...but keep the percentages the same for whatever YOU think the global market will be next gen. You feel me?

so it'll be PS2 all over again?  *Mr. Burns voice* excellent




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Marks' estimates (see above) about PS4 and XB1, at least proportionally seems plausible to me, although I don't want to comment about the actual sales volume as there are too many unknown parameters to have an accurate estimate. BUT, as "Shinobi-san" indicated, MS will not let their market share slide as they have already shown this with abrupt 180 degree policy changes and free Fifa 14 bundles etc although their effect will mostly be confined to US and UK. Given the scenario (which is embedded in my estimates), the BEST that MS can hope is NEAR PARITY in US and UK (40-45%) and no matter what they do, even if they would reduce the console's price to lower than PS4, they will NEVER still sell any more than 30-40% in (pretty much) any part of the world. So this SEVERELY limits their reach globally.

You may say, "Oh well, PS4 may win the Rest of the World, but XB1 will triumph in US". That's not how it works anymore, since we are much more globalized than a couple of decades ago, and the global dominance of PS4 will have catapult effects on US as well. So MS can't play safe anymore and say "Let's have a conclusive victory at home then launch an outside attack"... If you do that (attacking unfamiliar exotic territory), you just cannot risk leaving your home defenseless, which is exactly what they are doin.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

I like this thread, finally something thoughtful and explained, we need more of your contribution sir.



So it is happening...PS4 preorder.

Greatness Awaits!