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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

eFKac said:
Mummelmann said:
I don't believe that the PS4 can beat the One on home turf (i.e; North America), not even one bit. If the global marketshare balance between the PS and xbox brands will change in any significant way for the 8th gen it will be all down to Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan and the emerging markets later on in the console life cycle when the price is a lot lower.

I just don't think that the Ps brand is strong enough in NA to beat the xbox in the long run, day one million sales be damned. Remember, the 360 had a million selling week last holiday, black friday after 6-7 years and still such massive sales speak volumes of the xbox brand's power in the Americas.


I also don't expect PlayStation 4 to win in NA if something unexpected and crucial doesn't occur. But that said, you seriously expect around 20 million gap between PS4 and X1 like the gap between PS3 and 360 to still be in place when all is said and done? 

Edit. Checked the totals, it's more like around 18 million at the moment, so instead of 20 million, let's say 15 million?

unless something crucial occurs? Two crucial things happened:

- PS4 was not released one year late (360 had a one year and 8 million sale head start)

- The price differential change from +33% to -20% in playstation's favor. This alone will up the relative PS sales at least by 50%, and decrease the Xbox sales by 33%. I'd say do the math, but the math is up above, already done.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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Are you revising your numbers?

There is no indication the Xbox One could fell below 35% WW. And much less 40% in NA.

You are puting to much faith in price and overstimating PS4 apeal.



If things remain as they are. I would expect the following in the next 6 months:

PS4 wins in North America & UK, completely dominates everywhere else.

Xbox One remains healthy in North America & UK, drops to Wii U levels in Europe and rest of world.

However I don't expect Microsoft to remain idle and let this happen. Expect a sub 400$ Xbox One SKU without Kinect, in 2014. If they are really aggressive, they could hit a 300-350 price point to justify the system's inferior hardware. Things could get really interesting then.



I saw a clusterfuck of obvious statements that any layman could provide. Sorry, Professor, but nothing impressive here.



Dark_Feanor said:
Are you revising your numbers?

There is no indication the Xbox One could fell below 35% WW. And much less 40% in NA.

You are puting to much faith in price and overstimating PS4 apeal.


I haven't touched anything on original estimates, and I don't see much of a reason to have any revision for now. But I will revisit in 1 year, and see what'll happen. So far, I hardly had any reason to revise any of my earlier estimates at all. I believe my judgement is pretty solid (and based sicentific data and good observation, without letting my bias cloud my judgement).



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Around the Network
ViktorBKK said:
If things remain as they are. I would expect the following in the next 6 months:

PS4 wins in North America & UK, completely dominates everywhere else.

Xbox One remains healthy in North America & UK, drops to Wii U levels in Europe and rest of world.

However I don't expect Microsoft to remain idle and let this happen. Expect a sub 400$ Xbox One SKU without Kinect, in 2014. If they are really aggressive, they could hit a 300-350 price point to justify the system's inferior hardware. Things could get really interesting then.

That is quite close to my estimates. Roughly speaking the global XB1 shares will be 1/4 to 1/3 of total PS4 + XB1 sales (2 or 3 PS4 sold for every XB1). In NA, I am expecting around 35-45% market share for XB1.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

FanboysMakeMeLaugh said:
I saw a clusterfuck of obvious statements that any layman could provide. Sorry, Professor, but nothing impressive here.

Those things are / were not that obvious because there are still MANY people out there who claim that Xbox brand is too strong to have a market share less than 50%. All those statistics are not just my opinions, they are calculated and proven statistical estimates. Not just yet another person's willy nilly ideas who happens to guess when things are obvious. I have had those estimates the moment those consoles were announced.

Way earlier than that, I actually predicted even the architecture of those consoles, claiming that both consoles would use APUs from AMD, coupled with many cores (though I was guessing quad core) and abundant RAM (at least 4 GB). Now those things may seem obvious to you, when I had those predictions, 99% of people just flat-out dismissed APUs to be too weak, suggested RAM amounts too low etc...

It is easy to have day by day, obvious estimates. The art is estimating mid to long term based estimates on easily trackable and provable scientific data, and being very consistent on this.

And yes, I am seriously a college professor.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Given the recent announcement:
http://news.xbox.com/2013/11/xbox-xbox-one-momentum-announcement
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=172902&page=1

XB1 sold 1 million in 24 hours

Out of those 1 million sales,
Let's assume that

US + Canada : 600 K - 700 K

Others : 300 K - 400 K

let's also assume that this sales figures extrapolate to the future exactly like that...

In North America, roughly speaking

PS4 : 1000 K

XB1 : 600-700 K

This is a 30-40% deficit on XB1's account, impliying a 37-41 % NA market share for XB1. Again perfectly aligned with my original expectations (35-45% in NA).



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/xbox-one-sells-150k-units-in-first-week-in-uk/0124857

Assuming most of UK Sales came within 24 hours, out of the 1 million worldwide sales, 150 K goes to UK. This leaves 850 K. As I originally stated 600-700 K is for NA, while 150-250 K for the remaining countries.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/ps4-has-sold-over-250k-ps4s-in-the-uk/0125169

PS4 seems to have sold around 250 K in 48 hours vs 150 K for XB1. For now, this implies a 38%-62% division between XB1 and PS4. My original estimates for NA and EU were...

EU
XB1 : 15-25 %
PS4 : 75-85%

NA
XB1 : 35-45%
PS4 : 55-65%

I didn't have any specific estimate for UK alone but it sure is expected to have market shares between NA and EU, closer to English speaking NA. So the current 48 hours split, 38%-62% tends to make sense, resembling the NA market, though a bit closer to EU. To be more specific, I am guessing the XB1 share in UK may either go up a bit (around 40%) or somewhat diminish, mimicking EU; but either way, the XB1 share will be consistently below NA and above EU average.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates