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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

eFKac said:
I like this thread, finally something thoughtful and explained, we need more of your contribution sir.


Is this addressed to me? If yes, thank you! :)

 

I wish people would more sanely share their thoughts without getting caught up on their emotions. We all have our preferences and subjectivities, but none of this should cloud our judgement.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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freedquaker said:

My Sales Estimates

....

B) THE PREDICTION

...

2) Regional Analysis  (including only MS and Sony Consoles)

 

c) North America :  The Market Shares are currently around 62% to 38%. This will also take a major hit in PS4's favor but Xbox is almost as strong of a brand as PS in US, with a well established fan base. Although PS4 will eventually win a higher share, neither may be dominant.

XB1 :  Around 35-45%

PS4 :  Around 55-65%

d) Global Market Share: Current Market Share : 50%-50% But given the facts and estimates above, XB1 will take a major hit.

XB1 :  Around 24-33%

PS4 :  Around 67-76%

....


I am quoting my original post just to revisit my previous claims about the sales estimates in US.The latest US Pre-order numbers suggest the following:

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251359/ps4-vs-xbox-one-us-pre-orders-update-xbox-one-gains-ground/

Broken down, the preorder totals for the top 10 titles for each console so far add up to this table

 

 

Titles PS4 Xbone Total
1 Call of Duty: Ghosts 298,180 329,032 627,212
2 Battlefield 4 273,766 153,221 426,987
3 Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag 213,354 137,928 351,282
4 Killzone: Shadow Fall 250,155   250,155
5 Watch Dogs 153,569 95,314 248,883
6 Destiny 89,970 66,448 156,418
7 Madden NFL 25 81,119 58,870 139,989
8 Forza Motorsport 5   90,573 90,573
9 Dead Rising 3   86,648 86,648
10 Ryse: Son of Rome   82,888 82,888
11 NBA 2K14 59,592   59,592
12 inFAMOUS: Second Son 57,562   57,562
13 Titanfall   50,347 50,347
14 Knack 40,982   40,982
1,518,249 1,151,269 2,669,518
56.9% 43.1%

 

The overall breakdown is 56.9% in favor of PS4 against 43.1% for XBone. This is totally in lines with my original estimate that XBone's share will be between 35%-45% in US. Well, the 43% is closer to 45% but I still believe it is more likely to be lower because,

 

a) Preorder numbers likely reflect the hardcore audience, who are usually very price inelastic. In plain English, the price gap between the consoles will not matter to them. So casual gamer's choice will be more pro-PS4 due to price difference.

b) The network effects, which worked FOR Xbox360 last gen, will work against XBone. The spiraling effect from cheaper PS4 will lead to increasing adoption, which will lead to higher developer support, leading to even higher adoption and gap.

c) The gap will be larger outside the USA, which will have catapult effects into the US territory, increasing the gap even further. So far, those effects are isolated, so we see none of it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Well, it is a guess you have made atleast :). Saying initially that you have been right in 99% of your estimates doesn't say much if you don't back it up in any way, would you agree?

Regarding your actual prediction, I would say you are way off, I just don't know in what direction :). What the current generation, and the last six months have already taught us about the coming generation, is that ANYTHING can happen.

I believe PS4 will be the market leader in the coming generation, for the first half of it. After that, MS will show what their plan was all about. I do believe, however, that the market as a whole will shrink the coming years.

Also, people should really realize that Sony and MS are of the same kind, only in different leagues: they both try different strategies to please their customers, sometimes they make the right bet, sometimes they make the wrong move (just look at Sony and MS in 2006 and now)



Reasonable. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a 50-50 split in the US, but the X1 has no chance in the rest of the world...



Puppyroach said:
Well, it is a guess you have made atleast :). Saying initially that you have been right in 99% of your estimates doesn't say much if you don't back it up in any way, would you agree?

Regarding your actual prediction, I would say you are way off, I just don't know in what direction :). What the current generation, and the last six months have already taught us about the coming generation, is that ANYTHING can happen.

I believe PS4 will be the market leader in the coming generation, for the first half of it. After that, MS will show what their plan was all about. I do believe, however, that the market as a whole will shrink the coming years.

Also, people should really realize that Sony and MS are of the same kind, only in different leagues: they both try different strategies to please their customers, sometimes they make the right bet, sometimes they make the wrong move (just look at Sony and MS in 2006 and now)

What do you mean?  What was so surprising?



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Captain_Tom said:
Puppyroach said:
Well, it is a guess you have made atleast :). Saying initially that you have been right in 99% of your estimates doesn't say much if you don't back it up in any way, would you agree?

Regarding your actual prediction, I would say you are way off, I just don't know in what direction :). What the current generation, and the last six months have already taught us about the coming generation, is that ANYTHING can happen.

I believe PS4 will be the market leader in the coming generation, for the first half of it. After that, MS will show what their plan was all about. I do believe, however, that the market as a whole will shrink the coming years.

Also, people should really realize that Sony and MS are of the same kind, only in different leagues: they both try different strategies to please their customers, sometimes they make the right bet, sometimes they make the wrong move (just look at Sony and MS in 2006 and now)

What do you mean?  What was so surprising?


The turnaround for MS in such a short period of time, where they reversed the DRM policy, initiated a major program for Indie developers where they previously were thought to not have any program at all, that Sony broke everyones expectations with having more preorders than any consoles developer before... I think the list goes on.



Puppyroach said:
Captain_Tom said:
Puppyroach said:
Well, it is a guess you have made atleast :). Saying initially that you have been right in 99% of your estimates doesn't say much if you don't back it up in any way, would you agree?

Regarding your actual prediction, I would say you are way off, I just don't know in what direction :). What the current generation, and the last six months have already taught us about the coming generation, is that ANYTHING can happen.

I believe PS4 will be the market leader in the coming generation, for the first half of it. After that, MS will show what their plan was all about. I do believe, however, that the market as a whole will shrink the coming years.

Also, people should really realize that Sony and MS are of the same kind, only in different leagues: they both try different strategies to please their customers, sometimes they make the right bet, sometimes they make the wrong move (just look at Sony and MS in 2006 and now)

What do you mean?  What was so surprising?


The turnaround for MS in such a short period of time, where they reversed the DRM policy, initiated a major program for Indie developers where they previously were thought to not have any program at all, that Sony broke everyones expectations with having more preorders than any consoles developer before... I think the list goes on.

-Idk the MS thing doesn't surprise me at all.  MS had no choice and people don't really know much most of the time.  I mean Xbox has been spouting lies and BS for the entire generation and just now people seemed to notice...

-The PS4 Pre-Orders also didn't surprise me.  I mean this gen has been far too long and the X1 is hardly even half as competitive as the 360 was.  Of course they got big numbers: they are the only option!



I like the data, yet I can't agree with you unless you count the Wii U in. Yes, you did say that they're playing their game. Never underestimate Nintendo; they may suck today, but you'll be surprised later.

I do feel that this generation we will see the breaking point in budget/profits/success/ power. Games:
are becoming more expensive to produce,
we want even better graphics,
(that's costly)
developers invest more and NEED sales
if games sell bad we may see more closing of studios.

To sum up, I think that this generation games' budgets will finally stop to grow, as it will be impossible to invest that much and still sell it for 60 $ or so.

And Wii U is in that sweet spot where it has some power, but is not a beast. and 300 $ only, with a possibility of hitting 200-250 $, a price unachievable for PS4.



Update on the Preorders Data

Let's remember the original estimates for the North American market share between PS4 and XB1...

XB1 :  Around 35-45%

PS4 :  Around 55-65%

Currently the preorders market share for XB1 is 42.4% overall, and 39.4% for third parties, which is more representative in the long run. Those numbers will more likely improve in favor of PS4 in the upcoming months / years due to the network & catapult effects from the rest of the world, in addition to the more price sensitive casual crowd, who will favor PS4.

 

    11/9/2013    
  PS4 - Top 10 Pre-orders     Xbox One - Top 10 Pre-orders
1 Call of Duty: Ghosts 440,772   1 Call of Duty: Ghosts 431,764
2 Battlefield 4 360,563   2 Battlefield 4 187,408
3 Killzone: Shadow Fall 303,552   3 Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag 176,484
4 Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag 287,610   4 Forza Motorsport 5 128,951
5 Watch Dogs 165,823   5 Dead Rising 3 115,505
6 Destiny 113,515   6 Ryse: Son of Rome 111,884
7 Madden NFL 25 105,630   7 Watch Dogs 104,612
8 NBA 2K14 87,020   8 Destiny 88,032
9 Knack 82,579   9 Titanfall 79,583
10 inFAMOUS: Second Son 74,483   10 Madden NFL 25 77,765
             

---------

 

 

  Preorders Chart 11/9/2013      
             
  Titles PS4 Xbone Total    
             
1 Call of Duty: Ghosts 440,772 431,764 872,536 50.5% 49.5%
2 Battlefield 4 360,563 187,408 547,971 65.8% 34.2%
3 Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag 287,610 176,484 464,094 62.0% 38.0%
4 Killzone: Shadow Fall 303,552   303,552 100.0% 0.0%
5 Watch Dogs 165,823 104,612 270,435 61.3% 38.7%
6 Destiny 113,515 88,032 201,547 56.3% 43.7%
7 Madden NFL 25 105,630 77,765 183,395 57.6% 42.4%
8 Destiny 89,970 66,448 156,418 57.5% 42.5%
9 NBA 2K14 87,020 45169 132,189 65.8% 34.2%
10 Forza Motorsport 5   128,951 128,951 0.0% 100.0%
11 Fifa Soccer 14 68,986 46,801 115,787 59.6% 40.4%
12 Dead Rising 3   115,505 115,505 0.0% 100.0%
13 Ryse: Son of Rome   111,884 111,884 0.0% 100.0%
14 Knack 82,579   82,579 100.0% 0.0%
15 Need for Speed Rivals 57,528 22,713 80,241 71.7% 28.3%
16 Titanfall   79,583 79,583 0.0% 100.0%
17 inFAMOUS: Second Son 74,483   74,483 100.0% 0.0%
18 The Order 48,823   48,823 100.0% 0.0%
  All 2,286,854 1,683,119 3,969,973    
    57.6% 42.4%      
  Third Party 1,934,479 1,247,196 3,181,675    
    60.8% 39.2%      
             


Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

I don't believe that the PS4 can beat the One on home turf (i.e; North America), not even one bit. If the global marketshare balance between the PS and xbox brands will change in any significant way for the 8th gen it will be all down to Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan and the emerging markets later on in the console life cycle when the price is a lot lower.

I just don't think that the Ps brand is strong enough in NA to beat the xbox in the long run, day one million sales be damned. Remember, the 360 had a million selling week last holiday, black friday after 6-7 years and still such massive sales speak volumes of the xbox brand's power in the Americas.