Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

[freedquaker]

freedquaker said:

My Sales Estimates

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B) THE PREDICTION

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2) Regional Analysis  (including only MS and Sony Consoles)

 

c) North America :  The Market Shares are currently around 62% to 38%. This will also take a major hit in PS4's favor but Xbox is almost as strong of a brand as PS in US, with a well established fan base. Although PS4 will eventually win a higher share, neither may be dominant.

XB1 :  Around 35-45%

PS4 :  Around 55-65%

d) Global Market Share: Current Market Share : 50%-50% But given the facts and estimates above, XB1 will take a major hit.

XB1 :  Around 24-33%

PS4 :  Around 67-76%

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I am quoting my original post just to revisit my previous claims about the sales estimates in US.The latest US Pre-order numbers suggest the following:

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/251359/ps4-vs-xbox-one-us-pre-orders-update-xbox-one-gains-ground/

Broken down, the preorder totals for the top 10 titles for each console so far add up to this table

 

 

	Titles	PS4	Xbone	Total
1	Call of Duty: Ghosts	298,180	329,032	627,212
2	Battlefield 4	273,766	153,221	426,987
3	Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag	213,354	137,928	351,282
4	Killzone: Shadow Fall	250,155		250,155
5	Watch Dogs	153,569	95,314	248,883
6	Destiny	89,970	66,448	156,418
7	Madden NFL 25	81,119	58,870	139,989
8	Forza Motorsport 5		90,573	90,573
9	Dead Rising 3		86,648	86,648
10	Ryse: Son of Rome		82,888	82,888
11	NBA 2K14	59,592		59,592
12	inFAMOUS: Second Son	57,562		57,562
13	Titanfall		50,347	50,347
14	Knack	40,982		40,982
		1,518,249	1,151,269	2,669,518
		56.9%	43.1%

 

The overall breakdown is 56.9% in favor of PS4 against 43.1% for XBone. This is totally in lines with my original estimate that XBone's share will be between 35%-45% in US. Well, the 43% is closer to 45% but I still believe it is more likely to be lower because,

 

a) Preorder numbers likely reflect the hardcore audience, who are usually very price inelastic. In plain English, the price gap between the consoles will not matter to them. So casual gamer's choice will be more pro-PS4 due to price difference.

b) The network effects, which worked FOR Xbox360 last gen, will work against XBone. The spiraling effect from cheaper PS4 will lead to increasing adoption, which will lead to higher developer support, leading to even higher adoption and gap.

c) The gap will be larger outside the USA, which will have catapult effects into the US territory, increasing the gap even further. So far, those effects are isolated, so we see none of it.