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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Mummelmann said:
I don't believe that the PS4 can beat the One on home turf (i.e; North America), not even one bit. If the global marketshare balance between the PS and xbox brands will change in any significant way for the 8th gen it will be all down to Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan and the emerging markets later on in the console life cycle when the price is a lot lower.

I just don't think that the Ps brand is strong enough in NA to beat the xbox in the long run, day one million sales be damned. Remember, the 360 had a million selling week last holiday, black friday after 6-7 years and still such massive sales speak volumes of the xbox brand's power in the Americas.


I also don't expect PlayStation 4 to win in NA if something unexpected and crucial doesn't occur. But that said, you seriously expect around 20 million gap between PS4 and X1 like the gap between PS3 and 360 to still be in place when all is said and done? 

Edit. Checked the totals, it's more like around 18 million at the moment, so instead of 20 million, let's say 15 million?



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eFKac said:
Mummelmann said:
I don't believe that the PS4 can beat the One on home turf (i.e; North America), not even one bit. If the global marketshare balance between the PS and xbox brands will change in any significant way for the 8th gen it will be all down to Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan and the emerging markets later on in the console life cycle when the price is a lot lower.

I just don't think that the Ps brand is strong enough in NA to beat the xbox in the long run, day one million sales be damned. Remember, the 360 had a million selling week last holiday, black friday after 6-7 years and still such massive sales speak volumes of the xbox brand's power in the Americas.


I also don't expect PlayStation 4 to win in NA if something unexpected and crucial doesn't occur. But that said, you seriously expect around 20 million gap between PS4 and X1 like the gap between PS3 and 360 to still be in place when all is said and done? 


I never mentioned a gap at all, did I? No, I'm not expecting anything right now.

The only things we can settle with all likelihood at this point (in my opinion), are these;

1: The xbox will probably remain the strongest in North America for the 8th gen

2: The One will probably have a really good first week in in North America and some parts of Europe, so the difference initially shouldn't be massive

The facts so far are;

1: The PS4 did extremely well at release in North America

2: That fact means that Europe will be getting a smaller shipment than they could probably sell off, seeing as how we know Sony are poised to produce about 5 million units until the fiscal year ends

3: Japan will be lost to the xbox, that's a given

Too soon to conclude anything for now, but the way it appears right now, the One needs some serious muscle to beat the PS4 out of the gate. The higher price point and staggered launch won't help either. Given, the PS4 also has a staggered launch but it excludes Japan for now while the One has large chunks of Europe and other areas that will go without One's on the shelves for 2013.

PS: I still maintain that the 8th gen will be smaller than 7th gen, both in software and hardware sales on handhelds and home consoles.



Mummelmann said:
eFKac said:
Mummelmann said:
I don't believe that the PS4 can beat the One on home turf (i.e; North America), not even one bit. If the global marketshare balance between the PS and xbox brands will change in any significant way for the 8th gen it will be all down to Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan and the emerging markets later on in the console life cycle when the price is a lot lower.

I just don't think that the Ps brand is strong enough in NA to beat the xbox in the long run, day one million sales be damned. Remember, the 360 had a million selling week last holiday, black friday after 6-7 years and still such massive sales speak volumes of the xbox brand's power in the Americas.

 


I never mentioned a gap at all, did I? No, I'm not expecting anything right now.

The only things we can settle with all likelihood at this point (in my opinion), are these;

1: The xbox will probably remain the strongest in North America for the 8th gen

2: The One will probably have a really good first week in in North America and some parts of Europe, so the difference initially shouldn't be massive

The facts so far are;

1: The PS4 did extremely well at release in North America

2: That fact means that Europe will be getting a smaller shipment than they could probably sell off, seeing as how we know Sony are poised to produce about 5 million units until the fiscal year ends

3: Japan will be lost to the xbox, that's a given

Too soon to conclude anything for now, but the way it appears right now, the One needs some serious muscle to beat the PS4 out of the gate. The higher price point and staggered launch won't help either. Given, the PS4 also has a staggered launch but it excludes Japan for now while the One has large chunks of Europe and other areas that will go without One's on the shelves for 2013.

PS: I still maintain that the 8th gen will be smaller than 7th gen, both in software and hardware sales on handhelds and home consoles.


Either I don't undestand something (which is possible) or you contradict yourself. From what I understood from your initial post is that you don't expect the marketshare in NA to significantly change, I may have worded myself differently, should have asked about marketshare instead of saying units sold gap, but you seemed to think that Xbone will have around 15% marketshare lead over PS4, I still feel like this is very debatable, and in my opinion the marketshare between PS4 and X1 will change significantly (of course it's not a precise term)in NA, in relation to 7th .

As for the rest of your post I mostly agree, with this analysis going by the things we know at the moment.



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Yeah, I don't expect the marketshares in NA to change drastically, with the exception of Nintendo. Even with the PS4 up to a superb start, I think NA is just too strong a territory for the xbox brand.
I think it will be equally difficult for Sony to dominate in NA as it would be for MS to dominate in Europe.



Mummelmann said:
Yeah, I don't expect the marketshares in NA to change drastically, with the exception of Nintendo. Even with the PS4 up to a superb start, I think NA is just too strong a territory for the xbox brand.
I think it will be equally difficult for Sony to dominate in NA as it would be for MS to dominate in Europe.


Hmm interesting, we'll see how it will turn out and who was closer to being right



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Mummelmann said:
I don't believe that the PS4 can beat the One on home turf (i.e; North America), not even one bit. If the global marketshare balance between the PS and xbox brands will change in any significant way for the 8th gen it will be all down to Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan and the emerging markets later on in the console life cycle when the price is a lot lower.

I just don't think that the Ps brand is strong enough in NA to beat the xbox in the long run, day one million sales be damned. Remember, the 360 had a million selling week last holiday, black friday after 6-7 years and still such massive sales speak volumes of the xbox brand's power in the Americas.


I'll prove you wrong with that claim, using some very simple math. But before this, just remember that PS2 sold a lot more than Xbox in US despite the so called Xbox image. So this "image" of Xbox is not THAT strong as you imagine.

Now let's crunch the numbers right from this site, VGChartz...

Nominal Years Yearly Average Price Adjusted
44.9 8 5.61 4.63
27.4 7 3.91 4.89
    9.53 9.53

 

You'll see that X360 sold 44.9 mil consoles in Us versus PS3 selling only 27.4 mil. But we need to adjust for a few things here. First 360 was in the market longer compared to PS3, 8 vs 7 years; so the average annual sales is a more meaningful comparison, especially considering that XB1 doesn't have a one year headstart this time.

This brings the average sales to 5.61 vs 3.91. But there is also the "price gap", which America always proves to be very sensitive to (which is also the main reason why 360 won the last gen). The price gap was usually around 25%, so I will just give the PS3 average sales a 25% boost, creating a scenario where PS3 matched 360's price. But at the same time, I will assume the market size is constant, so the overall sales will not change (9.53).

The 25% boost to PS3 due to lower price increases its average sales increase from 3.91 to 4.89, stealing sales from X360 whose sales decrease from 5.61 to 4.63 annually. Finally 8 years of X360 will yield total sales of 37 million vs 34 million for PS3 in 7 years, reaching at a 52%-48% equilibrium.

All this ignores the "network effects & externalities", which worked against PS3 last gen, but would actually work in favor of PS3, had its price been lower.

* Note :
The lower average HD console price is likely to steal sales from Wii as well, but this is much more likely to work in favor of PS3 since the additional HD consumers already knew the X360's price.

 

In short, the only reasons Xbox dominated in US are

a) It was launched early, which created network effects and positive externatilities

b) It was cheaper all along

 

None of which exists today. On the contrary, it is suffering from bad press, underwhelming perfomance, and HIGH PRICE.

So much for the Xbox Brand!



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

I believe if the X1 does sell well then there's still no winning. People are just going to call it the new COD or Justin Bieber. If it doesn't then people will call it shitty.



Good analysis. You could be wrong, but you have some solid arguments. You should add sales estimatives in units too, I think it would make your analysis more interesting.



I'd like to elaborate on my estimate above, proving that Xbox One cannot dominate this gen, which was due to the head start & price advantage, rather than the Xbox Brand.

Sometimes, the reality is very easy to see, to those who want to see it.

 

Below is breakdown of the pricing mechanisms and their influence on the annual sales of 360 and PS3. In summary, 

- 360 was 33% cheaper than PS3 and sold 30% more annually, with almost one to one relationship.

- This time around XB1 is 20% more expensive and you can easily predict around 20% lower demand for XB1, just because of the price.This means, there is no way that the XB1 can sell more than PS3.

 

 

  Xbox PS  
  360 PS3  
Price 400 600 0.33
Ratio 1 1.5  
       
  XB1 PS4  
Price 500 400 -0.20
Ratio 1 0.8  
       
  360 Sales PS3 Sales
Quantity 5.61 3.91 -0.30
Ratio 1.00 0.70  

 

If we apply "this upcoming generations pricing mechanism" to the 360-PS3 generation, you'd end up with the following values...

 

 

Nominal Years Yearly Average Price Adjusted
44.9 8 5.61 4.33
27.4 7 3.91 5.20
    9.53 9.53

which would result in 34.6 million consoles sold for X360 in 8 years, and 36.4 million consoles sold for PS4 in 7 years; reaching an overall market share of 49%-51%, slightly in favor of PS3.

 

Note that the estimate parity between this table and the one above is the given assumptions regarding the price. I apply the PS4-XB1 pricing mechanism here whereas I assume price parity in the previous estimate. Both of which take into account the one-year headstart by X360. Without it, as in this gen, the market share will work more in favor of PS4, as I have been estimating since the OP.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Recent IGN seems to agree with my original predictions:

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/11/20/which-next-gen-consoles-and-games-are-ign-readers-buying



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates