Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

[eFKac]

Mummelmann said:

eFKac said:

Mummelmann said:
I don't believe that the PS4 can beat the One on home turf (i.e; North America), not even one bit. If the global marketshare balance between the PS and xbox brands will change in any significant way for the 8th gen it will be all down to Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan and the emerging markets later on in the console life cycle when the price is a lot lower.

I just don't think that the Ps brand is strong enough in NA to beat the xbox in the long run, day one million sales be damned. Remember, the 360 had a million selling week last holiday, black friday after 6-7 years and still such massive sales speak volumes of the xbox brand's power in the Americas.

 

I never mentioned a gap at all, did I? No, I'm not expecting anything right now.

The only things we can settle with all likelihood at this point (in my opinion), are these;

1: The xbox will probably remain the strongest in North America for the 8th gen

2: The One will probably have a really good first week in in North America and some parts of Europe, so the difference initially shouldn't be massive

The facts so far are;

1: The PS4 did extremely well at release in North America

2: That fact means that Europe will be getting a smaller shipment than they could probably sell off, seeing as how we know Sony are poised to produce about 5 million units until the fiscal year ends

3: Japan will be lost to the xbox, that's a given

Too soon to conclude anything for now, but the way it appears right now, the One needs some serious muscle to beat the PS4 out of the gate. The higher price point and staggered launch won't help either. Given, the PS4 also has a staggered launch but it excludes Japan for now while the One has large chunks of Europe and other areas that will go without One's on the shelves for 2013.

PS: I still maintain that the 8th gen will be smaller than 7th gen, both in software and hardware sales on handhelds and home consoles.

Either I don't undestand something (which is possible) or you contradict yourself. From what I understood from your initial post is that you don't expect the marketshare in NA to significantly change, I may have worded myself differently, should have asked about marketshare instead of saying units sold gap, but you seemed to think that Xbone will have around 15% marketshare lead over PS4, I still feel like this is very debatable, and in my opinion the marketshare between PS4 and X1 will change significantly (of course it's not a precise term)in NA, in relation to 7th .

As for the rest of your post I mostly agree, with this analysis going by the things we know at the moment.