Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

[freedquaker]

I'd like to elaborate on my estimate above, proving that Xbox One cannot dominate this gen, which was due to the head start & price advantage, rather than the Xbox Brand.

Sometimes, the reality is very easy to see, to those who want to see it.

 

Below is breakdown of the pricing mechanisms and their influence on the annual sales of 360 and PS3. In summary, 

- 360 was 33% cheaper than PS3 and sold 30% more annually, with almost one to one relationship.

- This time around XB1 is 20% more expensive and you can easily predict around 20% lower demand for XB1, just because of the price.This means, there is no way that the XB1 can sell more than PS3.

 

 

	Xbox	PS
	360	PS3
Price	400	600	0.33
Ratio	1	1.5
	XB1	PS4
Price	500	400	-0.20
Ratio	1	0.8
	360 Sales	PS3 Sales
Quantity	5.61	3.91	-0.30
Ratio	1.00	0.70

 

If we apply "this upcoming generations pricing mechanism" to the 360-PS3 generation, you'd end up with the following values...

 

 

Nominal	Years	Yearly Average	Price Adjusted
44.9	8	5.61	4.33
27.4	7	3.91	5.20
		9.53	9.53

which would result in 34.6 million consoles sold for X360 in 8 years, and 36.4 million consoles sold for PS4 in 7 years; reaching an overall market share of 49%-51%, slightly in favor of PS3.

 

Note that the estimate parity between this table and the one above is the given assumptions regarding the price. I apply the PS4-XB1 pricing mechanism here whereas I assume price parity in the previous estimate. Both of which take into account the one-year headstart by X360. Without it, as in this gen, the market share will work more in favor of PS4, as I have been estimating since the OP.