Marks said:
Boy do I have some good predictions for y'all. I'll write my explanation point form and in as simple a terms as possible to avoid tl;dr.
1. There are currently 260 million consoles sold this gen. Maybe that reaches 300 million when all's said and done.
2. 80 million of that 300 million are casuals who won't be buying consoles next gen. That's old people and women who bought their consoles to play wii fit or go virtual bowling. For those wondering how I came up with 80 million...That's half the Wii buyers (50 million) and the rest between Kinect and PS move. Not trying to offend anyone here, just explaining the process of my upcoming predictions.
3. So now we have 220 million 7th gen buyers who will be buying again next gen. And let's go with a nice even 30 million increase in the overall market for next gen (6th to 7th gen was 35ish million).
4. K so hope you followed me to this point. I think 250 million consoles will be sold in the 8th gen between PS4, XB1, and Wii U.
Division of the 250 million console market:
PS4 - 150-160 million (around 60-65% of the market). For the reasons listed in the OP, mainly the $100 price advantage over the XB1. Bear in mind, the PS2 controlled 75% of the market, so don't act like I've gone full retard for saying it could hit 60%.
XB1 - 55ish million (Low 20%'s of the market). Many will buy it based on MS loyalty, mainly in America. But will struggle to sell in Europe, and won't even be a factor in Japan.
Wii U - 40ish million (15-20%). Will only sell as well as I'm predicting due to early release (existing sales) and upcoming $100 price drop when PS4/XB1 hit the market.
Yeah call me nuts or whatever, but if this gen plays out the way I think it will, the PS4 will outsell it's grandpa, the PS2.
Edit: And if you think my point #2 is retarded, and there aren't 80 million people who bought consoles this gen that won't next gen...then just ignore my sales guesses...but keep the percentages the same for whatever YOU think the global market will be next gen. You feel me?
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so it'll be PS2 all over again? *Mr. Burns voice* excellent
