spemanig said:
Sony doesn't have Microsoft's brand loyalty. 80 million people defected from the PS2 to the 360. Meanwhile, you can say whatever you want about how the 360 got it's brand loyalty, but the fact is that those reason's are transfering from generation to generation. That isn't happening for the PS4. 360 fans have a reason not to defect. PS2 owners didn't. I think the PS4's brand loyalty will be stronger than the PS2 to the PS3's was, but it won't be enough to convert those already defected to the 360, and it won't be as strong as the Microsoft's is. I think the the Wii U will sell the most, the XBO will come in second near the early halfway point, and the PS4 will be a close third, but I think the PS4 will be considered the most "gamer" console, with the XBO second, and the Wii U a not as distant as the Wii third. |
We wont know MS's brand loyalty until the end of the gen, but just because people purchased a 360 instead of a PS3 does not mean they will buy an XboxOne over a PS4. I'm afraid you are totally misunderstanding the game market. I already know 2 staunch Xbox users who only care about the games, they liked their Xbox360, but have only the need to play the best games. Cost was also a consideration... cheapest but more powerful is a powerful combination for the core gamer.
PS3 still has some sales to go, in many markets the ps3 actually sold best once it went to a budet price. There are still millions of sales to be had and with Sony still making games for it, there is very good reason to think that it can go and hit 100+ million easily. You know that the PS2 sold many more millions after going to a budget price right? (were talking tens of millions).
MS messed up their launch year pretty badly, Sony is currently outselling them in pre-orders, anything can certainly happen in the next 12 months, but at the moment what you are suggesting is certainly not being shown by the market at this moment in time.
In believing the Wii-u will be the best selling console,... sorry that is just *NOT* going to happen. The wii-u is a 30-40 million console if they are lucky. Weak technology, poor marketing, launch too late, competition from the PS3/Xbox360, lack of 3rd party.. it's going to be last this gen no doubt.
It's too early to call from PS4/XboxOne, especially with a 5+ year plan, but I think there will be a 10-20 million gap this time between Sony and Ms... but MS did very well this gen counter acting Sony's moves, so they have a good chance of keeping up. Overtaking Sony without a year extra, without a more powerful console without a price benefit and with a poor message to consumers so far... thats going to be a challenge, but Sony were able to do the same. There is always a chance, but if Sony launch well in europe in the countries MS doesnt, I don't see Sony losing out this gen unless they mess it up.