Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said: Be honest, guys. If the PS3 can sell 77M (still selling well) while launching at $599 and probably end up as the highest selling system of the gen, what do you think the PS4 will do? |
Quite a bit less. Mainly due to shorter hardware cycle, branching market, slight drop in consumer spending habbits due to funds being diverted elsewhere in the entertainment arena and overall drop of gaming in the West.
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Nothing points to shorter hardware cycles. And seeing the PS3 sales last year, I don't see "branching market or drop in consumer spending habbits" being a problem.
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I'm sure you don't. Meanwhile, everything points to shorter hardware cycles if you look at the big picture (i.e; outside of consoles only). The 8th generation of home consoles will be historical, it will be the first one showing regression and recession, less hardware (sub 200 million lifetime) and less software sold on home consoles and dedicated handhelds, its simply inevitable. And dedicated handhelds are going away shortly, this is just as evident.
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No, nothing points to shorter hardware cycles. Your predictions of the 8th gen are as off as your prediction for the PS3's sales at the end of 2013. You have nothing to support that software sales will be low on home consoles next gen.
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Fine, you don't have to agree with me, you're free to make up your mind based on anything you want, I suppose. Just for kicks though, what exactly is wrong with my PS3 2013 prediction? You think its too low? Please don't say yes...
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Yes, of course it is. Around 7M PS3s sold in 2013? Even VGChartz, which severely undertracks PS3 numbers have them at 1.7M so far this year - that's more than 24% of your prediction.
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At around 25% of the year being through. I expect big yoy drops and especially in the holiday season where most of the sales come from, PS4, new xbox, Piston and an avalanche of titles for PS4, xbox 720 and Wii U (1st party Nintendo games) that won't be available or only available as inferior versions on PS3 and 360.
Its as simple as this; either the PS3 and 360 will suffer a great deal (to the tune of 40-50% down yoy in Q4) or the PS4 and nextbox will have fairly poor launches. To expect new consoles to do well and the existing ones to not suffer big drops simultaneously is highly unrealistic at best. Sony moving some of their big titles forward nearer summer instead of fall to make room for PS4 hype and launch line-up will also assist this greatly. The 7th generation is coming to a close, there's no reason to think that PS3 and 360 will have another good holiday season or a very good 2013 overall.
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And Q3 usually accounts for 45-50% of a whole year's sales. Did you factor that in? You also have a very skewed view of the worldwide gaming market. Why do you think the PS2 sold so much after the PS3 was out?
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Are people seriously still comparing the PS2 and PS3?
Here are a few reasons;
1: It had 75% marketshare in the end and basically no competition.
2: It was the most successful console ever made.
3: It had all the 3rd party support in the world and then some.
4: HD adoption rates were still quite low when the PS3 came out, DVD was still "fine".
5: The PS2 enjoyed a market not yet branched into the multitude of segments we see today.
6: Hardware development cycles were slower, tech is moving more and more quickly.
7: Tied in to number 6, today is seeing an unprecedented need for renewal and extra content to keep consumers enthralled, consoles are all about functionality, connectivity and add-on's, markets that are moving at a blistering pace.
8: MS has managed to snag just as much support from developers and have captured an immense marketshare and userbase compared to the 6th gen.
9: Since the PS3 has been bleeding money from the beginning and cost Sony billions, they simply can't just cut the price down to 99$ and expect to sell heaps after the PS4 launches since they depend heavily on PS3 hardware profits to help them keep investors sated and the gaming division afloat. The massive campaign to get good launch titles for the PS4 tells me that they are pushing for a PS4 software and PS3 hardware profit gain in the coming 12-18 months as the main income, its not unlikely that they will take a small loss on each PS4 unit sold.
10: MS and Nintendo simply outright killed their Xbox and Gamcube when the 7th started, arguably even before that, the PS2 had no competition at all from its peers in the 6th gen at the end of the cycle. Additionally, the first contender in the 7th gen was invisible in Japan, allowing the PS2 to maintain tremedous momentum and the 360 was also really niche in Europe, a region where the PS3 didn't launch before nearly a year-and a half after the 360 allowing Sony to also maintain momentum really well in the biggest Sony region on the globe. None of these are advantages the PS3 will or can enjoy.
Is that enough? I can't take you seriously when you accuse me of having a skewed view of the worldwide gaming market when you can't even understand the vast difference between the PS2 and PS3 situations, its like night and day and clear as crystal. You even fail to see this when we're afforded the rare luxury of actual hindsight to aid us in our analysis. The PS3 will not move massive numbers after the PS4 launches, no where near PS2 levels or percentages and the PS4 likely won't have a fantastic debut either. I think, in the end, you're the one who is only seeing a fraction of the big picture, look outside home consoles, even handhelds, look to consumer electronics as a whole, transistor tech, interface progress, multitasking, branching and fusioning of services, features and platforms and medium. Most of all; look beyond your obvious love for one company that is holding you back, the veil is obscuring your view of what is an infinitely more complex and exciting market than you are currently able to see.