Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:
Mummelmann said:
Lawlight said:
Be honest, guys. If the PS3 can sell 77M (still selling well) while launching at $599 and probably end up as the highest selling system of the gen, what do you think the PS4 will do? |
Quite a bit less. Mainly due to shorter hardware cycle, branching market, slight drop in consumer spending habbits due to funds being diverted elsewhere in the entertainment arena and overall drop of gaming in the West.
|
Nothing points to shorter hardware cycles. And seeing the PS3 sales last year, I don't see "branching market or drop in consumer spending habbits" being a problem.
|
I'm sure you don't. Meanwhile, everything points to shorter hardware cycles if you look at the big picture (i.e; outside of consoles only). The 8th generation of home consoles will be historical, it will be the first one showing regression and recession, less hardware (sub 200 million lifetime) and less software sold on home consoles and dedicated handhelds, its simply inevitable. And dedicated handhelds are going away shortly, this is just as evident.
|
No, nothing points to shorter hardware cycles. Your predictions of the 8th gen are as off as your prediction for the PS3's sales at the end of 2013. You have nothing to support that software sales will be low on home consoles next gen.
|
Fine, you don't have to agree with me, you're free to make up your mind based on anything you want, I suppose. Just for kicks though, what exactly is wrong with my PS3 2013 prediction? You think its too low? Please don't say yes...
|
Yes, of course it is. Around 7M PS3s sold in 2013? Even VGChartz, which severely undertracks PS3 numbers have them at 1.7M so far this year - that's more than 24% of your prediction.
|
At around 25% of the year being through. I expect big yoy drops and especially in the holiday season where most of the sales come from, PS4, new xbox, Piston and an avalanche of titles for PS4, xbox 720 and Wii U (1st party Nintendo games) that won't be available or only available as inferior versions on PS3 and 360.
Its as simple as this; either the PS3 and 360 will suffer a great deal (to the tune of 40-50% down yoy in Q4) or the PS4 and nextbox will have fairly poor launches. To expect new consoles to do well and the existing ones to not suffer big drops simultaneously is highly unrealistic at best. Sony moving some of their big titles forward nearer summer instead of fall to make room for PS4 hype and launch line-up will also assist this greatly. The 7th generation is coming to a close, there's no reason to think that PS3 and 360 will have another good holiday season or a very good 2013 overall.
|
