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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures

Kaizar on 10 March 2013
Captain_Tom said:
bucky1965 said:
Pachter is a character and a half. He has predicted Nintendo's doom many times, over many years over., lol. I do think there will be a drop in overall consoles sales. Even developers have already stated they will making less triple A titles for the gen of consoles.


Yeah but he isn't predicting Nintendo's doom, and honestly Nintendo does look to be in trouble if they continue to ignore things people want (Online, media, Third Party).


But Nintendo Network is better then PlayStation Network:

On the 3DS it has to do 180 refresh rate (60 fps per image) and 6 speaker sound and 3D (which is the hardest to do).

On the Wii U it has to either do 180 refresh rate (3 different 1080p 60 fps images, cause of 3D ready games, or 2 different 1080p with 2 different 720p images cause of both 3D & 2 GamePad controllers) with 6 speaker sound and dealing with streaming.

 

ThE Wii U has more 3rd party games coming out this year alone then anyone could have seen coming, and the Wii U created MiiVerse before PS4.

The 3DS has Nintendo Video & downloading full 3D movies & apps. While the Wii U has Panarama view videos & TVii & apps & HTML5 for Web browser.

 

I don't see PlayStation having free 3D movie trailers & 3D music videos & other free 3D videos like Son of a Pitch, nor free Panarama view videos, let alone full 3D movies to purchase physically & digitally, nor coming up with MiiVerse, plus the 3DS is also getting MiiVerse, while only the PS4 has its own kind of MiiVerse without the Vita having it.

The 3DS is getting Hulu Plus this year, while the Vita app became vaporware.

In short (too late, LOL) the Wii U has the media and is getting way more 3 party games from now til May by itself, and has awesome online.

So Nintendo never ignore it, you just ignore Nintendo and assume things.



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Screamapillar on 10 March 2013
Grandia said:
Screamapillar said:

There will never be a 'last gen' lol.  Videogames have only grown in popularity.  The current generation is the largest one ever, by install base size.   If anything, there are more generations to come than there have been so far since the 80's.

Smartphone/ tablet games just bring more people into the fold, and help console games sell.   Just look at how YouTube views of Nintendo Direct on smartphones have caused Animal Crossing to explode in Japan.  The game routinely sells 70-80k copies per week, and it's been out since the beginning of November.

Sure, there has been a change in what types of games sell well on consoles, but certainly the size of the market such as it is, at the tail end of an unusually long cycle, is still far bigger than the market was in 2005 before Xbox 360 was released and GameCube, PS2, and Xbox were all in steep decline.  That's how far the industry has come...even at the weakest part of the cycle, when new machines are about to replace old machines, we're still far bigger than we were five or even ten years ago.


There sure will be at some point a last console generation once streaming technologie is stable and advanced enaugh to reach most consumers than there will be no need for new consoles anymore. You only need a receiver and this could be anything, Sony might use their TVs as receiver and stream new playstation games directly in new Sony TVs, you could buy Playstation as service to your new TV then.

The end of conventional consoles is already settled the only question is when this changeover will happen.

That seems like a pipe-dream.  People are far more likely to buy a new generation of game system every five years than upgrading to a new, super-expensive TV set.  Once people buy a large HDTV, it is a long time before they feel any need to get yet another TV set.  You think a $1000 TV set with Sony streaming will sell better than a $399 game console?  Doubtful.   The figure I read a while back said that people wait 7-10 years inbetween TV sets, sometimes longer.

Also, many people still do not have access to reliable broadband internet.  Broadband internet in many areas of the country is still a long ways off.



The Screamapillar is easily identified by its constant screaming—it even screams in its sleep. The Screamapillar is the favorite food of everything, is sexually attracted to fire, and needs constant reassurance or it will die.

cusman on 10 March 2013

If I am Sony and my product sells 85 million units in lets say 10 years. So about 8.5 million a year. I also would be thinking of not making any more of that product... NOT



Mnementh on 10 March 2013
Mazty said:

Well a) links and b) if they already have a Wii, job done. The issue currently is the lack of games and functions the Wii U does. It needs to get away from relying on multiplatforms as those titles (CoD etc) aren't going to tempt existing PS3/360 owners. The Wii U really, really needs genuine 8th gen games and we haven't seen a single one even demo'd, yet we've seen such titles for the PS4, which is very concerning. As I said I'm willing to bet that the Wii U will probably end it's life time around the 20 -25 mill mark. If sales don't pick up over the next few months it could very well go the way of the DC as I imagine when the PS4/nextbox are released things will not get better.

I'm willing to take the bet. You win if WiiU ends lower than 25M, I win if it does above.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

gigantor21 on 10 March 2013

No way in hell will we see two consoles selling near 100 million. And if that did happen, it would be between the Wii U and either the PS4 or Nextbox; the latter will cannibalize each other too much to allow such sales for both.

Frankly, I don't know if any of the next gen consoles will sell that much.



Have some time to kill? Read my shitty games blog. http://www.pixlbit.com/blogs/586/gigantor21

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Mazty on 10 March 2013
Mnementh said:
Mazty said:

Well a) links and b) if they already have a Wii, job done. The issue currently is the lack of games and functions the Wii U does. It needs to get away from relying on multiplatforms as those titles (CoD etc) aren't going to tempt existing PS3/360 owners. The Wii U really, really needs genuine 8th gen games and we haven't seen a single one even demo'd, yet we've seen such titles for the PS4, which is very concerning. As I said I'm willing to bet that the Wii U will probably end it's life time around the 20 -25 mill mark. If sales don't pick up over the next few months it could very well go the way of the DC as I imagine when the PS4/nextbox are released things will not get better.

I'm willing to take the bet. You win if WiiU ends lower than 25M, I win if it does above.


Agreed. Now to play the waiting game...



Mnementh on 10 March 2013
Kaizar said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
i expect PS4 to take first, nextbox to take second, and Wiiu to take 3rd at about 65m.


3DS will take first with 200 million life time sales.

That's way too optimistic on 3DS making 200M lifetime. Wanna bet?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

coolguy on 10 March 2013

Pacther is at it again .i hope this is the last generation of him lol



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enrageorange on 10 March 2013

All three of his numbers seem too optimistic. Especially ps4 and nextbox. There will be way more competition next gen then ever before. 



Mnementh on 11 March 2013
Mazty said:
Mnementh said:
Mazty said:

Well a) links and b) if they already have a Wii, job done. The issue currently is the lack of games and functions the Wii U does. It needs to get away from relying on multiplatforms as those titles (CoD etc) aren't going to tempt existing PS3/360 owners. The Wii U really, really needs genuine 8th gen games and we haven't seen a single one even demo'd, yet we've seen such titles for the PS4, which is very concerning. As I said I'm willing to bet that the Wii U will probably end it's life time around the 20 -25 mill mark. If sales don't pick up over the next few months it could very well go the way of the DC as I imagine when the PS4/nextbox are released things will not get better.

I'm willing to take the bet. You win if WiiU ends lower than 25M, I win if it does above.


Agreed. Now to play the waiting game...

Fine. I'm happy that you're willing to bet, some people seem to claim ridiculous stuff only to enrage others and are not accountable for it, because it is decided too far in the future. You are willing to stand to your word.

I would say, 1 month declaring in the sig that I/you (whoever lose) was wrong and the other was right should be a good enough price for the winner. Agreed?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]