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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures

NeilStrauss on 10 March 2013
curl-6 said:
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:

Maro Kart Wii has over 30 million sales. Even if only a quarter ever upgrade, and that's 8 million. People are upgrading from Mario Kart DS to Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS.

Zelda on the Wii sold well. I don't need links to prove that millions want to play Nintendo games, just look at the sales numbers. And the Wii won't be able to play the new Zelda, the new 3D Mario, the new Metroid, the new Smash Bros. They'll have to buy a Wii U for that, and millions will. Plus games like that make a Dreamcast situation pretty much not a possibility. Dreamcast didn't have an IPs that powerful.

Products with no predecessor fall into the generation of their contemporaries. If graphics defined gens, then you couldn't classify the PSP and DS as the same generation, yet they are. The graphics definition died years ago, it no longer fits with how the indusry works.

 

The issue is though you're talking not just about upgrading the game, but buying an entire console for literally a few games as the multiplats are readily available on other consoles. It just seems to be a very expense upgrade for few games, something which plagued the original xbox and GC.

 

It won't be just a "few". It'll have 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Zelda, Metroid, Xeno, Yoshi, Pikmin, Fire Emblem x Shin Megami Tensei, along with many more beloved franchises, and whatever new IPs Nintendo comes up with. Your average gamer only owns about 7-8 games for their console, they don't need dozens and dozens of games they desperately want to justify a purchase.


Atlus better gimme some PERSONA games on other systems =/



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think-man on 10 March 2013

Those WiiU numbers look a little high to me, I reckon it will only do around 20m



 

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Mazty on 10 March 2013
curl-6 said:
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:

Maro Kart Wii has over 30 million sales. Even if only a quarter ever upgrade, and that's 8 million. People are upgrading from Mario Kart DS to Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS.

Zelda on the Wii sold well. I don't need links to prove that millions want to play Nintendo games, just look at the sales numbers. And the Wii won't be able to play the new Zelda, the new 3D Mario, the new Metroid, the new Smash Bros. They'll have to buy a Wii U for that, and millions will. Plus games like that make a Dreamcast situation pretty much not a possibility. Dreamcast didn't have an IPs that powerful.

Products with no predecessor fall into the generation of their contemporaries. If graphics defined gens, then you couldn't classify the PSP and DS as the same generation, yet they are. The graphics definition died years ago, it no longer fits with how the indusry works.

 

The issue is though you're talking not just about upgrading the game, but buying an entire console for literally a few games as the multiplats are readily available on other consoles. It just seems to be a very expense upgrade for few games, something which plagued the original xbox and GC.

 

It won't be just a "few". It'll have 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Zelda, Metroid, Xeno, Yoshi, Pikmin, Fire Emblem x Shin Megami Tensei, along with many more beloved franchises, and whatever new IPs Nintendo comes up with. Your average gamer only owns about 7-8 games for their console, they don't need dozens and dozens of games they desperately want to justify a purchase.

I guess this gen we will learn if those titles still appeal to core gamers or not. My personal opinion is they do not, but we shall see.



curl-6 on 10 March 2013
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:

Maro Kart Wii has over 30 million sales. Even if only a quarter ever upgrade, and that's 8 million. People are upgrading from Mario Kart DS to Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS.

Zelda on the Wii sold well. I don't need links to prove that millions want to play Nintendo games, just look at the sales numbers. And the Wii won't be able to play the new Zelda, the new 3D Mario, the new Metroid, the new Smash Bros. They'll have to buy a Wii U for that, and millions will. Plus games like that make a Dreamcast situation pretty much not a possibility. Dreamcast didn't have an IPs that powerful.

Products with no predecessor fall into the generation of their contemporaries. If graphics defined gens, then you couldn't classify the PSP and DS as the same generation, yet they are. The graphics definition died years ago, it no longer fits with how the indusry works.

 

The issue is though you're talking not just about upgrading the game, but buying an entire console for literally a few games as the multiplats are readily available on other consoles. It just seems to be a very expense upgrade for few games, something which plagued the original xbox and GC.

 

It won't be just a "few". It'll have 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Zelda, Metroid, Xeno, Yoshi, Pikmin, Fire Emblem x Shin Megami Tensei, along with many more beloved franchises, and whatever new IPs Nintendo comes up with. Your average gamer only owns about 7-8 games for their console, they don't need dozens and dozens of games they desperately want to justify a purchase.

I guess this gen we will learn if those titles still appeal to core gamers or not. My personal opinion is they do not, but we shall see.

Yes, we will. I have a hard time believing that it was 10 million + casuals who bought Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros Brawl, considering the widepread expressions of love for those franchises among the core.



archbrix on 10 March 2013
Mazty said

I think you summed it up by saying the Wii U "will" have 8th gen games. Releasing a console that should be next-gen without showing any next-gen games on it imo is a huge, huge mistake and honestly has fallen into the trap of being pushed aside for PS4/nextbox hype. 
Bluray for some folk may be a non-issue but I'm currently upgrading my DVDs to bluray and it'd be a major inconvienence not to have bluray on a console, which may be exacerbated by the nextbox if that gets bluray increasing the amount of bluray players in living rooms. 

Thanks for the clarification on shipped. Is there anyway of tracking this or just a waiting game until official numbers are released?

Oh I love blu-ray; almost all of my favorite movies are now released on the format and several of my favorite TV shows as well.  I just think that people are used to Nintendo consoles not having CD/DVD/BD playback like the competition offers.  It'd be nice, but I don't think it's something too many people expect from a Nintendo game system.  Regarding Microsoft, however, seeing as how they seem to be focusing on their new console being an all-in-one multimedia hub, I think it would be a glaring omission if it didn't feature blu-ray playback.

As far as Nintendo's numbers, no idea of how to track other than VGChartz or NPD data.



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the_dengle on 10 March 2013

He predicts 200 - 250 million home console sales next generation, yet says it will be the last generation? What the hell is he thinking? That Microsoft and Sony, after selling 100 million (or just shy of it) consoles apiece, are just going to stop making consoles? Nintendo didn't stop after the GameCube sold under 25 million; why would they stop after selling over 30 million?



Booyah on 10 March 2013
NeilStrauss said:
If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.


The console on top is ususally the console that does the least innovating, the consoles selling less are the ones that do the more innovating to try to gain more sales.

 

The reason Sony did so much innovating this gen is because they were behind the 8-ball sales wise and had to do something to try and increse sales.

 

If Sony is dominant like in the PS1-2 era, then expect them to kick back and let the 3rd parties do all the work while they rake in the royalties.

 



animegaming on 10 March 2013
the_dengle said:
He predicts 200 - 250 million home console sales next generation, yet says it will be the last generation? What the hell is he thinking? That Microsoft and Sony, after selling 100 million (or just shy of it) consoles apiece, are just going to stop making consoles? Nintendo didn't stop after the GameCube sold under 25 million; why would they stop after selling over 30 million?


simple he is a idiot and to the people who agree with him need a new brain cause what is happening to the wii u at the moment is what happened to most consoles and will most likely happen to the PS4 and 720



Metallicube on 10 March 2013
NeilStrauss said:
If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.


Pretty sure those "hardcore" games were around and thriving even when Sony was third.



Stefan.De.Machtige on 10 March 2013

I really hope they are wrong about the <$599 pricetag for the PS4. Really :(



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