By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures

Fayceless on 09 March 2013

Okay, wait, hold on.

Did they just say the PS4/NextBox will sell 85+million units each, and then they're just going to give up and let consoles die? Does everyone else realize the absurdity of that prediction? The complete lack of logic?



Around the Network
ethomaz on 09 March 2013
NeilStrauss said:
If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.

This .



Mazty on 09 March 2013
archbrix said:
Mazty said:

The GameCube however lacked not just multimedia functions....but games as well. 
Does the Wii U do bluray films? No. 3rd party support? No. 8th gen games (Shadow Fall, Drive Club etc)? No. So what reason exactly does your average gamer who already owns an 360 or PS3 have to buy a Wii U? Well looking at the sales, the answer is clear: they simply don't. 

I will bet you that the Wii U will not easily double the GC install base. The fact that Nintendo slashed the predicted sales by 20% tells me that Nintendo haven't thought this through and their customers are at least 20% less than what they expected. That kind of corporate misfire tends to mean the item in question will have a rocky time. 

 

See above & I highlight the 20% cock-up by Nintendo on their estimated sales. Btw any chance if you know that they are working on sales or shipped? because if it is sales, then they will miss that reduced figure by a large percent, but as they said they'd already "sold" 3 million units, I have a feeling they are talking about shipped rather than sold units. 

 

The WiiU will have 8th gen games:  The next Zelda, 3D Mario, Metroid, Mario Kart, Smash, etc.  While I realize that some base next-gen advancements solely on tech, WiiU's games will still be selling against games like Shadow Fall and Drive Club, making them a part of the 8th gen as far as the consumer market is concerned.  I'm already quite sure it won't have 3rd party parity with the new consoles, but the jury's still out on whether or not it will be stronger than the Wii in that area.  The ability to play blu-ray is a non-issue, IMO.

Regarding WiiU's sales, I'm the first to admit that Nintendo, clearly not learning from the mistakes they made with the 3DS post-launch, deserve the low sales.  The value that the 360/PS3 offer right now is impossible for WiiU to compare to, considering it's the most expensive system on the market with the least amount of games.  However, the console has only been out for three and a half months; the games and price issues are really nothing to base the console's future on at this point in time.  Nintendo still has time to right the ship (as they did with the 3DS), even if they have somewhat squandered their lead.

Finally, yes, their estimates are based on "shipped".


I think you summed it up by saying the Wii U "will" have 8th gen games. Releasing a console that should be next-gen without showing any next-gen games on it imo is a huge, huge mistake and honestly has fallen into the trap of being pushed aside for PS4/nextbox hype. 
Bluray for some folk may be a non-issue but I'm currently upgrading my DVDs to bluray and it'd be a major inconvienence not to have bluray on a console, which may be exacerbated by the nextbox if that gets bluray increasing the amount of bluray players in living rooms. 

Thanks for the clarification on shipped. Is there anyway of tracking this or just a waiting game until official numbers are released?



curl-6 on 09 March 2013
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:

Yet again you're using the temporary circumstances of now as a basis for long term claims, which doesn't work in this instance either. Of course it's not selling NOW; it's only big exclusive is a game pitched at audiences outside its price range. But the price will change, as will the games as big hitters like Mario Kart, HD Zelda, Smash Bros, etc arrive. Nintendo's first party franchises are something Wii U offers that PS4 and Nextbox cannot.

An abysmal start does not mean an abysmal lifetime: PS3 and 3DS proved that.

Correct, but I, and frankly many others, can't see why the situation will change. Will Mario Kart really help to push the system when people already have Mario Kart on the Wii? Same with Zelda, which lets be honest, wasn't exactly a huge seller on the Wii. 
The question is will people be hyped enough to get a console that offers just a few exclusives, or would they prefer to hold out for the PS4/nextbox? I believe the latter will happen. 

The difference with the PS3 is that it offered bluray and also clearly showed 7th gen games. The Wii U offers very little in terms of media function that is unique, and has yet to show any game that is 8th gen, which was only made worse by the Sony announcement and demo of PS4 games. 


People bought Mario Kart Wii despite it already being available on the Gamecube and N64. People bought Gran Turismo 5 on PS3 despite already having GT3-4 on PS2. And "HD Zelda" has been something many gamers have wanted for a long time. Millions of people want to play Nintendo games, and the only place you can play new console Nintendo games will be Wii U. The games just aren't there yet, but they are coming.

I'm not saying Wii U will outsell PS4 or Nextbox, I don't believe it will, but it will definitely top 20 million lifetime.

And gens aren't measured by graphics, but by product iterations.


Ah but the issue is not many people owned either of those consoles. The Wii was a very popular system meaning people were introduced to titles via it rather then upgrading from it. The question comes down to one thing:
Will Mario Kart Wii U offer enough to tempt people to get an entire new console?

With GT a lot of people owned both the PS2 and 3 for numerous titles, not just one or two. Which gamers exactly have been wanting a HD Zelda? Considering how Zelda on the Wii sold, it looks like a lot of people have left the franchise behind and I can't imagine people will buy a console just for a game that's now in HD. 
"Millions of people want to play Nintendo games"
Well a) links and b) if they already have a Wii, job done. The issue currently is the lack of games and functions the Wii U does. It needs to get away from relying on multiplatforms as those titles (CoD etc) aren't going to tempt existing PS3/360 owners. The Wii U really, really needs genuine 8th gen games and we haven't seen a single one even demo'd, yet we've seen such titles for the PS4, which is very concerning. As I said I'm willing to bet that the Wii U will probably end it's life time around the 20 -25 mill mark. If sales don't pick up over the next few months it could very well go the way of the DC as I imagine when the PS4/nextbox are released things will not get better.

No gens aren't measured by product iteration otherwise consoles without a predecessor wouldnt be part of any generation. 

Maro Kart Wii has over 30 million sales. Even if only a quarter ever upgrade, and that's 8 million. People are upgrading from Mario Kart DS to Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS.

Zelda on the Wii sold well. I don't need links to prove that millions want to play Nintendo games, just look at the sales numbers. And the Wii won't be able to play the new Zelda, the new 3D Mario, the new Metroid, the new Smash Bros. They'll have to buy a Wii U for that, and millions will. Plus games like that make a Dreamcast situation pretty much not a possibility. Dreamcast didn't have an IPs that powerful.

Products with no predecessor fall into the generation of their contemporaries. If graphics defined gens, then you couldn't classify the PSP and DS as the same generation, yet they are. The graphics definition died years ago, it no longer fits with how the indusry works.



curl-6 on 09 March 2013
NeilStrauss said:
curl-6 said:
NeilStrauss said:
If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.

We already had amazing innovative games in the 7th gen without Sony winning.


We sure did: Heavy Rain, Valkyria Chronicles, Demon´s Souls, Little Big Planet and others.

And Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort, Zelda Skyward Sword, Metroid Prime 3, and others.



Around the Network
COLD_COBRA_ on 09 March 2013

Playstation first again. 3 out of 4 aint bad. 



NeilStrauss on 09 March 2013
curl-6 said:
NeilStrauss said:
curl-6 said:

We sure did: Heavy Rain, Valkyria Chronicles, Demon´s Souls, Little Big Planet and others.

And Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort, Zelda Skyward Sword, Metroid Prime 3, and others.


Sure. They were nice. But, do you know what? The best Zelda I ever played was A LINK TO THE PAST.



ethomaz on 09 March 2013

"PS4 graphics are phenomenal, huge RAM makes innovation likely"

Seem like a gift from the gods.

 

 



Mazty on 10 March 2013
curl-6 said:

Maro Kart Wii has over 30 million sales. Even if only a quarter ever upgrade, and that's 8 million. People are upgrading from Mario Kart DS to Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS.

Zelda on the Wii sold well. I don't need links to prove that millions want to play Nintendo games, just look at the sales numbers. And the Wii won't be able to play the new Zelda, the new 3D Mario, the new Metroid, the new Smash Bros. They'll have to buy a Wii U for that, and millions will. Plus games like that make a Dreamcast situation pretty much not a possibility. Dreamcast didn't have an IPs that powerful.

Products with no predecessor fall into the generation of their contemporaries. If graphics defined gens, then you couldn't classify the PSP and DS as the same generation, yet they are. The graphics definition died years ago, it no longer fits with how the indusry works.

 

The issue is though you're talking not just about upgrading the game, but buying an entire console for literally a few games as the multiplats are readily available on other consoles. It just seems to be a very expense upgrade for few games, something which plagued the original xbox and GC.

 

MDMAlliance said:

I'll make a bet with you.  If the Wii U doesn't sell 20m+ by the end of its 3rd year, I will delete my account.  I promise you the Wii U will sell 20m+.
If I win, why don't you make my statement your sig for an entire year?


Deal, though I'm not going to hold you over deleting your account - you can just put it as your sig for a while =p



curl-6 on 10 March 2013
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:

Maro Kart Wii has over 30 million sales. Even if only a quarter ever upgrade, and that's 8 million. People are upgrading from Mario Kart DS to Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS.

Zelda on the Wii sold well. I don't need links to prove that millions want to play Nintendo games, just look at the sales numbers. And the Wii won't be able to play the new Zelda, the new 3D Mario, the new Metroid, the new Smash Bros. They'll have to buy a Wii U for that, and millions will. Plus games like that make a Dreamcast situation pretty much not a possibility. Dreamcast didn't have an IPs that powerful.

Products with no predecessor fall into the generation of their contemporaries. If graphics defined gens, then you couldn't classify the PSP and DS as the same generation, yet they are. The graphics definition died years ago, it no longer fits with how the indusry works.

 

The issue is though you're talking not just about upgrading the game, but buying an entire console for literally a few games as the multiplats are readily available on other consoles. It just seems to be a very expense upgrade for few games, something which plagued the original xbox and GC.

 

It won't be just a "few". It'll have 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Zelda, Metroid, Xeno, Yoshi, Pikmin, Fire Emblem x Shin Megami Tensei, along with many more beloved franchises, and whatever new IPs Nintendo comes up with. Your average gamer only owns about 7-8 games for their console, they don't need dozens and dozens of games they desperately want to justify a purchase.