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Forums - Gaming - Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures

Mazty on 09 March 2013
curl-6 said:

Yet again you're using the temporary circumstances of now as a basis for long term claims, which doesn't work in this instance either. Of course it's not selling NOW; it's only big exclusive is a game pitched at audiences outside its price range. But the price will change, as will the games as big hitters like Mario Kart, HD Zelda, Smash Bros, etc arrive. Nintendo's first party franchises are something Wii U offers that PS4 and Nextbox cannot.

An abysmal start does not mean an abysmal lifetime: PS3 and 3DS proved that.

Correct, but I, and frankly many others, can't see why the situation will change. Will Mario Kart really help to push the system when people already have Mario Kart on the Wii? Same with Zelda, which lets be honest, wasn't exactly a huge seller on the Wii. 
The question is will people be hyped enough to get a console that offers just a few exclusives, or would they prefer to hold out for the PS4/nextbox? I believe the latter will happen. 

The difference with the PS3 is that it offered bluray and also clearly showed 7th gen games. The Wii U offers very little in terms of media function that is unique, and has yet to show any game that is 8th gen, which was only made worse by the Sony announcement and demo of PS4 games. 



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curl-6 on 09 March 2013
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:

Yet again you're using the temporary circumstances of now as a basis for long term claims, which doesn't work in this instance either. Of course it's not selling NOW; it's only big exclusive is a game pitched at audiences outside its price range. But the price will change, as will the games as big hitters like Mario Kart, HD Zelda, Smash Bros, etc arrive. Nintendo's first party franchises are something Wii U offers that PS4 and Nextbox cannot.

An abysmal start does not mean an abysmal lifetime: PS3 and 3DS proved that.

Correct, but I, and frankly many others, can't see why the situation will change. Will Mario Kart really help to push the system when people already have Mario Kart on the Wii? Same with Zelda, which lets be honest, wasn't exactly a huge seller on the Wii. 
The question is will people be hyped enough to get a console that offers just a few exclusives, or would they prefer to hold out for the PS4/nextbox? I believe the latter will happen. 

The difference with the PS3 is that it offered bluray and also clearly showed 7th gen games. The Wii U offers very little in terms of media function that is unique, and has yet to show any game that is 8th gen, which was only made worse by the Sony announcement and demo of PS4 games. 


People bought Mario Kart Wii despite it already being available on the Gamecube and N64. People bought Gran Turismo 5 on PS3 despite already having GT3-4 on PS2. And "HD Zelda" has been something many gamers have wanted for a long time. Millions of people want to play Nintendo games, and the only place you can play new console Nintendo games will be Wii U. The games just aren't there yet, but they are coming.

I'm not saying Wii U will outsell PS4 or Nextbox, I don't believe it will, but it will definitely top 20 million lifetime.

And gens aren't measured by graphics, but by product iterations.



archbrix on 09 March 2013
Mazty said:

The GameCube however lacked not just multimedia functions....but games as well. 
Does the Wii U do bluray films? No. 3rd party support? No. 8th gen games (Shadow Fall, Drive Club etc)? No. So what reason exactly does your average gamer who already owns an 360 or PS3 have to buy a Wii U? Well looking at the sales, the answer is clear: they simply don't. 

I will bet you that the Wii U will not easily double the GC install base. The fact that Nintendo slashed the predicted sales by 20% tells me that Nintendo haven't thought this through and their customers are at least 20% less than what they expected. That kind of corporate misfire tends to mean the item in question will have a rocky time. 

 

See above & I highlight the 20% cock-up by Nintendo on their estimated sales. Btw any chance if you know that they are working on sales or shipped? because if it is sales, then they will miss that reduced figure by a large percent, but as they said they'd already "sold" 3 million units, I have a feeling they are talking about shipped rather than sold units. 

 

The WiiU will have 8th gen games:  The next Zelda, 3D Mario, Metroid, Mario Kart, Smash, etc.  While I realize that some base next-gen advancements solely on tech, WiiU's games will still be selling against games like Shadow Fall and Drive Club, making them a part of the 8th gen as far as the consumer market is concerned.  I'm already quite sure it won't have 3rd party parity with the new consoles, but the jury's still out on whether or not it will be stronger than the Wii in that area.  The ability to play blu-ray is a non-issue, IMO.

Regarding WiiU's sales, I'm the first to admit that Nintendo, clearly not learning from the mistakes they made with the 3DS post-launch, deserve the low sales.  The value that the 360/PS3 offer right now is impossible for WiiU to compare to, considering it's the most expensive system on the market with the least amount of games.  However, the console has only been out for three and a half months; the games and price issues are really nothing to base the console's future on at this point in time.  Nintendo still has time to right the ship (as they did with the 3DS), even if they have somewhat squandered their lead.

Finally, yes, their estimates are based on "shipped".



NeilStrauss on 09 March 2013

If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.



Darth Tigris on 09 March 2013

Predictions based on what we know currently have a low percentage of being accurate. But that'll never stop people from making crazy ones and then promoting that they were right if their crazy prediction comes to pass. Yeah ...



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curl-6 on 09 March 2013
NeilStrauss said:
If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.

We already had amazing innovative games in the 7th gen without Sony winning.



Mazty on 09 March 2013
curl-6 said:
Mazty said:
curl-6 said:

Yet again you're using the temporary circumstances of now as a basis for long term claims, which doesn't work in this instance either. Of course it's not selling NOW; it's only big exclusive is a game pitched at audiences outside its price range. But the price will change, as will the games as big hitters like Mario Kart, HD Zelda, Smash Bros, etc arrive. Nintendo's first party franchises are something Wii U offers that PS4 and Nextbox cannot.

An abysmal start does not mean an abysmal lifetime: PS3 and 3DS proved that.

Correct, but I, and frankly many others, can't see why the situation will change. Will Mario Kart really help to push the system when people already have Mario Kart on the Wii? Same with Zelda, which lets be honest, wasn't exactly a huge seller on the Wii. 
The question is will people be hyped enough to get a console that offers just a few exclusives, or would they prefer to hold out for the PS4/nextbox? I believe the latter will happen. 

The difference with the PS3 is that it offered bluray and also clearly showed 7th gen games. The Wii U offers very little in terms of media function that is unique, and has yet to show any game that is 8th gen, which was only made worse by the Sony announcement and demo of PS4 games. 


People bought Mario Kart Wii despite it already being available on the Gamecube and N64. People bought Gran Turismo 5 on PS3 despite already having GT3-4 on PS2. And "HD Zelda" has been something many gamers have wanted for a long time. Millions of people want to play Nintendo games, and the only place you can play new console Nintendo games will be Wii U. The games just aren't there yet, but they are coming.

I'm not saying Wii U will outsell PS4 or Nextbox, I don't believe it will, but it will definitely top 20 million lifetime.

And gens aren't measured by graphics, but by product iterations.


Ah but the issue is not many people owned either of those consoles. The Wii was a very popular system meaning people were introduced to titles via it rather then upgrading from it. The question comes down to one thing:
Will Mario Kart Wii U offer enough to tempt people to get an entire new console?

With GT a lot of people owned both the PS2 and 3 for numerous titles, not just one or two. Which gamers exactly have been wanting a HD Zelda? Considering how Zelda on the Wii sold, it looks like a lot of people have left the franchise behind and I can't imagine people will buy a console just for a game that's now in HD. 
"Millions of people want to play Nintendo games"
Well a) links and b) if they already have a Wii, job done. The issue currently is the lack of games and functions the Wii U does. It needs to get away from relying on multiplatforms as those titles (CoD etc) aren't going to tempt existing PS3/360 owners. The Wii U really, really needs genuine 8th gen games and we haven't seen a single one even demo'd, yet we've seen such titles for the PS4, which is very concerning. As I said I'm willing to bet that the Wii U will probably end it's life time around the 20 -25 mill mark. If sales don't pick up over the next few months it could very well go the way of the DC as I imagine when the PS4/nextbox are released things will not get better.

No gens aren't measured by product iteration otherwise consoles without a predecessor wouldnt be part of any generation. 



Mazty on 09 March 2013
curl-6 said:
NeilStrauss said:
If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.

We already had amazing innovative games in the 7th gen without Sony winning.


Few and far between thanks mainly to indie devs. 7th gen is terrible compared to the 6th as most games simply went HD and retard easy.



MDMAlliance on 09 March 2013
Mazty said:
Screamapillar said:
Mazty said:
IMO the Wii U won't reach 30 million, more likely 20, or less. 85 mill PS4's? Hard to say. It depends how badly people want to upgrade or if they are more bothered about phones and tablets, but I would say 70+ mill. As for the next-box if that goes down the route of a windows media centre that plays games, I'd say in the region of 50 mill give or take ~10 as no one likes a jack of all trades.


To put things into perspective... GameCube sold just under 22 million in seven years, and the system had absolutely no multimedia functions.  It was a pure game console.  With the types of mainstream applications that most of us find useful for everyday life built-in to Wii U, I don't see how it couldn't at least have some minor cross-over success like 360 had.  Free video chat, all major streaming services, etc.

Wii U will easily double the GameCube install base, and that's not such a bad thing.  That puts the Wii U 20 million ahead of GameCube, and 10 million ahead of N64, which even at 32 million was an extremely popular and successful game system.


The GameCube however lacked not just multimedia functions....but games as well. 
Does the Wii U do bluray films? No. 3rd party support? No. 8th gen games (Shadow Fall, Drive Club etc)? No. So what reason exactly does your average gamer who already owns an 360 or PS3 have to buy a Wii U? Well looking at the sales, the answer is clear: they simply don't. 

I will bet you that the Wii U will not easily double the GC install base. The fact that Nintendo slashed the predicted sales by 20% tells me that Nintendo haven't thought this through and their customers are at least 20% less than what they expected. That kind of corporate misfire tends to mean the item in question will have a rocky time. 

 

archbrix said:
Screamapillar said:
Mazty said:
IMO the Wii U won't reach 30 million, more likely 20, or less. 85 mill PS4's? Hard to say. It depends how badly people want to upgrade or if they are more bothered about phones and tablets, but I would say 70+ mill. As for the next-box if that goes down the route of a windows media centre that plays games, I'd say in the region of 50 mill give or take ~10 as no one likes a jack of all trades.


To put things into perspective... GameCube sold just under 22 million in seven years, and the system had absolutely no multimedia functions.  It was a pure game console.  With the types of mainstream applications that most of us find useful for everyday life built-in to Wii U, I don't see how it couldn't at least have some minor cross-over success like 360 had.  Free video chat, all major streaming services, etc.

Wii U will easily double the GameCube install base, and that's not such a bad thing.  That puts the Wii U 20 million ahead of GameCube, and 10 million ahead of N64, which even at 32 million was an extremely popular and successful game system.

+1 for common sense. :)

 


See above & I highlight the 20% cock-up by Nintendo on their estimated sales. Btw any chance if you know that they are working on sales or shipped? because if it is sales, then they will miss that reduced figure by a large percent, but as they said they'd already "sold" 3 million units, I have a feeling they are talking about shipped rather than sold units. 

 


I'll make a bet with you.  If the Wii U doesn't sell 20m+ by the end of its 3rd year, I will delete my account.  I promise you the Wii U will sell 20m+.
If I win, why don't you make my statement your sig for an entire year?



NeilStrauss on 09 March 2013
curl-6 said:
NeilStrauss said:
If Sony wins next gen, hardcore gaming is back, prepare for Survival Horrors, Good RPGs and amazing inovative games once again.

We already had amazing innovative games in the 7th gen without Sony winning.


We sure did: Heavy Rain, Valkyria Chronicles, Demon´s Souls, Little Big Planet and others.