How the Vita will do in the second year? | |||
| Worse (<3 million) | 138 | 21.97% | |
| Same (3-4 million) | 161 | 25.64% | |
| Better (4-7 million) | 254 | 40.45% | |
| Doubling (>7 million) | 75 | 11.94% | |
| Total: | 628 | ||
Updated the OP with the new weeks numbers. Nothing really happened, the Vita keeps trending below last year in Japan and in front global (without US and europe in the last year). Starting in two weeks it should be below last year global too, as the launch in US and europe kick in. What is the next thing on the horizon, that can give Vita a boost?
RolStoppable said:
In Japan: Phantasy Star Online 2 at the end of February and Soul Sacrifice at the start of March. The release schedule also has quite a few minor games (25-75k) in the coming weeks and spring, so it's not too bad. In America and Europe: Soul Sacrifice in early May, but this is merely a guess. Unless it is one hell of a game it won't move any significant amount of hardware. Next up: Killzone in September. Release schedules for both regions are almost empty and what are minor games in Japan will either not release in the West or not do anything for hardware. |
So it looks as bleak as WiiU. Soul Sacrifice seems like a nice title, that will not move too much units. I may be wrong though. I have no idea how big Phantasy Star is these days. Killzone should have an effect, it will be seen if it can be more than last year though. Hmm, do you think production cost already dropped enough, so that sony can afford a price-cut?
RolStoppable said:
Actually, it's not as bleak as Wii U, because the Vita does receive third party support in at least one region. PSO2 should manage a six digits figure first week without problems. It's not a huge game, but it should be about as big as Persona 4 and Hatsune Miku. I am not sure about Sony's pricing strategy. Last fall they made the baffling decision to drop the PSP's price in Japan instead of the Vita's which was much more needed. Outside of Japan a price drop won't matter anyway. The system is selling at abysmal levels with next to no noteworthy software releasing this year, so a large increase in sales is not going to happen. Then there's of course the consideration for a PS3 price drop and competitive pricing of the PS4 at launch. Sony isn't in a position where they can price everything optimally, so something will have to give in 2013; the PSV is the least important system out of the bunch, so it will likely get the short end of the stick. A Japan-only price cut would make sense though, because that's the only region where third party publishers are willing to stay on board or consider support of the platform. |
Hmm, also WiiU get at least some games, but OK, no need to discuss which system has the less empty release schedule.
At pricing my point is, that Sony isn't financially in the position to take much losses. So I expect no loss-leading strategy for PS4 and PSV will only get a price-cut, if production-cost is allowing to stay loss-free even after the cut. The point is: how much did drop the price of manufacturing the device in the year out?
And Japan is the only region with support? Doesn't Vita get FIFA, Madden, COD and stuff like that? Also it seems Capcom wants to see the Vita dead. Their support for the system is incredibly bad, and they ported RE:Revelations to everything - except Vita.
Updated OP with the numbers for the new week. Next week this year will start to trail behind in weekly sales globally and the week after that in YTD, as in last year the launch in the US and europe kick in.
Nice job on this thread Mnementh.
Numbers still depressing to watch, though.
It needs some freakin' games....
Currently own:
Currently playing: Witcher 3, Walking Dead S1/2, GTA5, Dying Light, Tomb Raider Remaster, MGS Ground Zeros
The Vita might not make 2million this year without a price cut.
| Paul said: The Vita might not make 2million this year without a price cut. |
Two million seem a bit harsh. If nothing drastic is happening and momentum keeps as it is (bad) you could extrapolate that Vita will end somewhere a bit more than 2 million at the end of the year (don't forget that the holidays will move more units). But the Vita is now a little more than a year old. Costs might be down enough for a pricecut in the middle of the year, Sony will throw more games at it (3rd-parties probably wait and see in this situation), a redesign might be possible (Vita XL) or something very appealing will be in the planning for PS4 and Vita Cross-play. That are probable options, that might boost sales.
|
RolStoppable said: PSO2 should manage a six digits figure first week without problems. |
So much? Remember that the game will be available for free on PS Store. Japs are crazy if so many of them spend 60 bucks only for the box and card... but they are!
|
RolStoppable said: The fact that [CoD, FIFA, Madden] still sold respectably on the Vita won't convince publishers to put in more effort this time around. |
If I was a publisher, I would say: "Wow! The shit we released last year was fairly punished by critics but still sold quite well. If we invest in quality software this time, sales will skyrocket!". But you're probably right, I'm not a publisher :(
---
Vita's situation looks horrible, even in Japan. It has a considerable amount of games coming in March, with the most relevants being Soul Sacrifice and Tales of Hearts R. The first will move some hardware because is being bundled, but I don't expect it to do high numbers as new IPs often go unnoticed there. Regarding Tales, there's a game from this franchise on Vita already, so even if the new one sells well, the impact on hardware will be null.
Certainly these games won't be the saviours, and there's nothing announced after that!
The only thing I can think of that could save the system is the release of a cheaper redesign accompanied with a not yet announced game from a well-known franchise (like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear or even Winning Eleven!). But when? How can Sony compete against Monster Hunter and then Pokémon?
Either way, I predict that sales will be up year over year in Japan. I have no idea what's gonna happen in the West.
Naninho said:
So much? Remember that the game will be available for free on PS Store. Japs are crazy if so many of them spend 60 bucks only for the box and card... but they are!
If I was a publisher, I would say: "Wow! The shit we released last year was fairly punished by critics but still sold quite well. If we invest in quality software this time, sales will skyrocket!". But you're probably right, I'm not a publisher :( ---
Vita's situation looks horrible, even in Japan. It has a considerable amount of games coming in March, with the most relevants being Soul Sacrifice and Tales of Hearts R. The first will move some hardware because is being bundled, but I don't expect it to do high numbers as new IPs often go unnoticed there. Regarding Tales, there's a game from this franchise on Vita already, so even if the new one sells well, the impact on hardware will be null. Certainly these games won't be the saviours, and there's nothing announced after that! The only thing I can think of that could save the system is the release of a cheaper redesign accompanied with a not yet announced game from a well-known franchise (like Final Fantasy, Metal Gear or even Winning Eleven!). But when? How can Sony compete against Monster Hunter and then Pokémon? Either way, I predict that sales will be up year over year in Japan. I have no idea what's gonna happen in the West. |
I have high hopes for PSO2 and Soul Sacrifice, they could be game changers in Japan.
As for Vita being terrible in Japan, I agree - but at least it is not "360 terrible". It is bad but it is still very possible to reverse.
The Vita has many good games. More than I have the time to play. However, it needs THE game. One killer app to make it move units.
About Us |
Terms of Use |
Privacy Policy |
Advertise |
Staff |
Contact
Display As Desktop
Display As Mobile
© 2006-2025 VGChartz Ltd. All rights reserved.
